anuramm wrote:
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.
Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.
Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?
(A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication that unemployment is abnormally high.
(B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.
(C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.
(D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.
(E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those without jobs is even higher.
"Roland" Assumption QuestionHere is what it means.
Roland: 90% people know someone unemployed.
Sharon: Unemployment is 5% (So 5 out of 100 workers are unemployed). So if a person knows say 50 workers, it is very likely that at least 1 of them will be unemployed.
So as per Sharon, most people are likely to know at least 1 unemployed worker is they know 50 workers. Hence 90% people knowing at least 1 unemployed worker is not a cause for alarm. She says it's kind of expected.
If 1 out of every 20 workers is unemployed (on avg) and if you know 50 workers, there is a very high probability that you know at least 1 unemployed worker. So you would find that most people, say 90%, know someone unemployed.
So Sharon's statements leads to (A)
(A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication that unemployment is abnormally high.
(D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.
Sharon is not saying that people who Roland talked with are lying. She is saying that the result that Roland got is expected and that it doesn't mean very high unemployment rate. Even if the unemployment rate is average, one would still expect the same result that Roland got (that 90% people know at least 1 unemployed worker)
Hence (D) is not correct.
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