In short, yes, I do think there will be fewer seats for those of us applying for the Class of 2015 this year.
First, the Class of 2014 is overenrolled, so to compensate, I expect they'll want a smaller Class of 2015 to begin with. Second, four people accepted the $20K deferral and rumor has it that others accepted non-scholarship deferrals (see comments of P&Q article). Third, I'm sure MIT will have a higher estimated Yield based on last year.
In my estimation, the accpetance rate will drop from 14.4% for the Class of 2014 to 13.3% for the Class of 2015. Here's how I calculated those figures:
Class of 2014:-4,133 Applicants (source 1)
-413 Enrolled (source 1)
-67% Class of 2012 Yield (source 2)
-400 Enrollment Target (assumption)
-597 Estimated Acceptances (400 Enrollment Target / 67% Yield)
-14.4% Estimated Acceptance Rate (597 Est. Accepts / 4,133 Applicants)
-69% Class of 2014 Yield (413 Enrolled / 597 Est. Accepts)
Class of 2015:-4,133 Applicants (assumes it will hold constant vs. last year)
-4 $20K Deferrals (source 1)
-6 No Scholarship Deferrals (assumption based on source 1 comments)
-800 Total FT MBA Program Enrollment Target (assumption)
-409 Class of 2014 (source 1 - 4 $20k deferrals)
-391 Class of 2015 Enrollment Target (800 total - 409 Class of 2014, assumption)
-381 Class of 2015 Seats Available (391 target - 10 deferrals)
-69% Class of 2014 Yield (see above)
-551 Class of 2015 Acceptances (381 Class of 2015 Seats / 69% Yield)
-13.3% Estimated Acceptance Rate (551 Class of 2015 Accepts / 4,133 Applicants)
Source 1:
https://poetsandquants.com/2012/09/26/sl ... o-go-away/Source 2:
https://www.businessweek.com/bschools/ra ... sloan.htmlLet me know what you all think!
Thank you,
OptimisticApplicant
Good analysis, although it does nothing to advance you as an OptimisticApplicant in our eyes
I think the acceptance rate will remain the same (14 odd percent) as the number of apps at Sloan will also be down (as is expected to be the general trend). If you take a 5% decline, you are looking at 550 admits out of 3,926 applications - which is 14% Now THAT is an OptimisticApplicant! hehe - cheers!