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Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled

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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 26 Dec 2009, 13:24
reply2spg wrote:
Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled areas of the world as it is in those already sampled, our current estimate of reserves that exist underground must be multiplied by a factor of 10,000. From this we can conclude that we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate.

To reach the stated conclusion, the author must assume which of the following?

A) It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world
B) The consumption rate for oil will not grow rapidly
C) Oil will remain an important energy source for at least 500 years
D) The world will achieve and maintain zero population growth
E) New technology will make oil discovery and drilling more feasible than ever before

[Reveal] Spoiler: OA
A



E)wrong..it does not mention anywhere whether or not we can make oil discovery feasible or not
D)wrong..Future consumption growing at an accelerating rate will require some hand from the increasing population...loose assumption
C)wrong..Clearly it is not an assumption.
B)wrong..it refers to the consumption rate growing rapidly.
A)Correct..Stood out as an assumption to me while reading the first sentence.
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 30 Dec 2009, 06:26
A is a sure shot answer, as far as B is concerned, the conclusion in the question considers the "exponential growth" fact already
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 30 Dec 2010, 06:38
Moss wrote:
I usually hate it when people argue the OA, but in this case I must join the ranks! The answer appears to be a clear A.


Agreed :)

Since it was an assumption question I wrote out my own brief assumption

"Assuming we can even get to or retrieve the reserves"

A is closest to my written assumption and makes sense.
Like everyone else said, B has already been assumed in the stimulus.
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 30 Dec 2010, 07:02
yea. A for me. B is already mentioned.
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 31 Dec 2010, 01:39
Seems this question has been in discussion for quite some time and also features as "question of the day" for 30-dec-2010.

Here's my take:


reply2spg wrote:
Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled areas of the world as it is in those already sampled, our current estimate of reserves that exist underground must be multiplied by a factor of 10,000. From this we can conclude that we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate.

To reach the stated conclusion, the author must assume which of the following?

(A) It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world. The author has given the amount of oil in unexplored areas (that is, equal to the current reserves) and then goes on to say by how much we should increase our oil reserve estimate in order to meet the need (including accelerated pace need) to meet future demands. So for this conclusion to be made, it is clear that the author is assuming that whatever quantity is there in unexplored areas, can be recovered made ready to meet demand. This is exactly what this option says. Good option choice. Now lets examine other choices.
(B) The consumption rate for oil will not grow rapid. I don't see how this is an assumption. Author clearly states in the premises that oil remains are sufficient to meet any demand for 500 years,
(C) Oil will remain an important energy source for at least 500 years. Whether oil is an important scope of energy is not the context of argument in any manner.
(D) The world will achieve and maintain zero population growth. Totally out of scope.
(E) New technology will make oil discovery and drilling more feasible than ever before. Nothing is stated about technology. May be the current technology is sufficient but only the areas are unexplored. Out of scope answer choice.

A is the best answer option here. I would say the OA is hugely debatable.

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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 04 Jan 2011, 04:54
Expert's post
I've changed OA in the first post.
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 05 Jan 2011, 07:57
a
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 15 Jan 2011, 08:51
The answer is obviously A. why do you think it 's B?
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 14 Apr 2011, 12:06
A
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 25 May 2011, 20:40
negating A clearly crashes the conclusion here.
choice is between A and C, where C is a slight hyperbole here.
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 29 May 2011, 07:36
Easy one: A!
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Re: Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled [#permalink] New post 06 May 2012, 19:35
+1 A

If it is impossible to recover the oil of the unsampled areas, we cannot conclude that we will have more oil in the future.
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Re: Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled [#permalink] New post 29 May 2012, 01:51
reply2spg wrote:
Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled areas of the world as it is in those already sampled, our current estimate of reserves that exist underground must be multiplied by a factor of 10,000. From this we can conclude that we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate.

To reach the stated conclusion, the author must assume which of the following?

(A) It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world
(B) The consumption rate for oil will not grow rapidly
(C) Oil will remain an important energy source for at least 500 years
(D) The world will achieve and maintain zero population growth
(E) New technology will make oil discovery and drilling more feasible than ever before



B. Author is saying that future consumption will grow at a rapid rate. So this is wrong.
C. Time oil will remain = Total amount of reserves*Rate at which reserves are used up every year. No information is provided about this. Moreover, it is not an assumption. Assumption should reflect reserves, of course oil will remain important source of energy
D. Nothing has been said about population. Moreover, if world will achieve zero population growth and given that future consumption will grow at an accelerating rate, so how can that be true, in the face of zero population growth? out of scope...
E. Nothing has been said about technology which will make it feasible. Out.
A. Author has said about probability of oil in unsampled areas of the world, then it must be based on the assumption that oil could be recovered in unsampled areas of the world. Right choice.
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Re: Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled [#permalink] New post 15 Sep 2012, 01:30
Clear A, the last sentence states even though the demand for oil grows at an acclerating rate, the supplies wud last .So,B can't be the answer. :?
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Re: Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled [#permalink] New post 04 Jan 2013, 00:30
Easiest one ever encountered I would say -
a) Simply yes, unless you can recover the oil, entire para just goes for a ride.
b) Contradicts the stated assumption author has made in the para.
c) Entire para talks about established need of oil.Also, the para says 'can' meet, doesnot say'will' meet.
d) Completely beyond scope of the para context, no connection mentioned between growing population and enerygy consumption
e) Not related to the para context as it never says if existing technology has some challenges because of thish oil in unsampled area could not be harnessed.
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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 24 Jun 2013, 09:48
tania wrote:
my choice is A. Can someone explain why ans B is correct?


I choose E because A is in present tense while the conclusion forsees something possible in the future. I understand why E is wrong but it seems that A is not "so" right... Help anyone?

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Re: CR: Oil rate [#permalink] New post 24 Jun 2013, 13:34
ronaldgoal wrote:
tania wrote:
my choice is A. Can someone explain why ans B is correct?


I choose E because A is in present tense while the conclusion forsees something possible in the future. I understand why E is wrong but it seems that A is not "so" right... Help anyone?

Regards.


Hi ronald

A does not mean present tense only. A says: It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world. It is possible to use present tense to tell future events. "Possible" means "is able but not sure".
For example: It is possible to live in Mars. Who knows when human can live in Mars? Probably now, or even in the next 50 years.

You can see this kind of reasoning over and over again in GMAT.

The form is
A makes claim that if A does X, the result will be Y
A concludes that the result Y is true.
The assumption is: A has ability to do X.

Because if you negate the assumption: A has no ability to do X ==> The conclusion "Y is true" fails.

For example:
A company's CEO says if he fires 1000 employees, the company's profit will increase 10%
The CEO concludes that: Next year, he will fire 1000 employees to improve company's profit.
Assumption: the CEO has ability to fire 1000 employees. What if the law requires that a company not be able to fire 1000 employees in 1 year. ==> The CEO's conclusion is broken.

Hope it helps.
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Re: Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled [#permalink] New post 30 Dec 2013, 08:09
reply2spg wrote:
Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled areas of the world as it is in those already sampled, our current estimate of reserves that exist underground must be multiplied by a factor of 10,000. From this we can conclude that we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate.

To reach the stated conclusion, the author must assume which of the following?

Hello all, here is a possible explanation on why the OA is A.

Breakdown:
Tone of the argument is "soft," therefore the answers need to stay away from making any strong assumptions
There is just as much oil in unsampled areas of the world as in sampled areas of the world = possibly more oil for everyone!
The scientists who have studied this therefore believe it is possible to get this oil in order to make their conclusion - "From this we can conclude that we can meet the oil needs of the entire world for at least five centuries, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate."

Answer breakdown:
(A) It is possible to recover the oil contained in unexplored areas of the world - This initially sounds good. Don't eliminate it at first. States that in order for the scientists to make their case that the oil needs can fuel the entire world for >500years, they must truly believe that they can reach these unsampled oil areas (reserves).
(B) The consumption rate for oil will not grow rapidly - The last sentence in the argument, even assuming that future consumption grows at an accelerating rate, states the opposite of this answer choice. Eliminate it immediately as a possibility.
(C) Oil will remain an important energy source for at least 500 years - If oil didn't remain an important energy source for 500 years, the projected amount of oil in the unsampled areas would serve the world for a period >500 years, due to less consumption of the oil. Eliminate this choice as it simply restates something already stated (therefore is not an assumption - something not stated within the argument).
(D) The world will achieve and maintain zero population growth - This one kept me thinking for a few extra seconds; however, I eventually eliminated it because within the argument it states that future consumption is going to grow at an increasing rate. This answer choice is just another way of saying something already stated in the argument (therefore is not an assumption - something not stated within the argument).
(E) New technology will make oil discovery and drilling more feasible than ever before - Out of scope. Technology was not addressed within the initial argument, hence why I had eliminated it.


Answer = A

Hope this helps anyone who may of been on the fence between any of the answers. Let me know what you thought of my logic for breaking this critical reasoning question down and whether this post was helpful.
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Re: Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled [#permalink] New post 03 Jan 2014, 18:09
A) Correct. If it's impossible to extract the unexplored oil, the argument is damaged
B) That the consumption rate won't grow rapidly supports the argument. However, without that, the argument is still valid and thus, choice B is not an assumption
C) The importance of oil as a source of energy has no bearing on whether we can meet the oil need of the entire world.
D) It supports the argument, but not necessarily true. Because of the unexplored huge amount of reserves, the argument could be valid even if the population growth is higher than zero.
E) Same reason as D.
Re: Some geologists argue that if oil is as common in unsampled   [#permalink] 03 Jan 2014, 18:09
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