Somebody please rate my AWA
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03 Nov 2014, 00:24
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
In the argument business manager of a departmental store recommended to enlarge their household and home furnishing product department to increase the departmental store's profit. This conclusion is based on the premise that over the three month-period between August 1 and October 31, stores that sell cloths reported decrease in their profits whereas stores that sell household products reported increase in their profits. However, the argument depends on a series of unsubstantial assumptions. Most notably, the author assumed that this trend is likely to continue over the coming years. Also, the author assumed that the data based on a small sample of local stores will be true for departmental store also. Moreover, decrease in profit is only due to consumer behavior, any other factors like 'sale' in clothing stores, formation of new housing society etc. have been ignored. The reasoning in this argument is problematic in several respects.
Most conspicuously, author assumes that the trend observed for three-month period will also continue for coming years. The data gathered from a three month-period is not sufficient to generalise any trend. If the trend is a due to a specific reason which may not be a usual one then in absence of such reason the trend will change. Decreasing clothing and increasing household products in such case will proved to be a disastrous mistake for the departmental store. Because the author provides no information to rule out such interpretation, the observations are insufficient to support the recommendation.
Additionally, the conclusion relies on the small sample of local stores that may not represent the case of the departmental store. Moreover, if the type of customers of local stores and departmental store are not same then the conclusion drawn may not be applicable to the departmental store. For example, the local stores have middle and lower income group customers while the departmental store has upper income group customers, then their choices will also be different. Lacking specific information about the stores in the argument it is not advisable to give much credence to the manager's recommendation.
In conclusion, the argument has some merits, but argument fails to consider several key factors and is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions. Moreover, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data collected at different locations, information about type of customers in local stores and departmental store and provide the specific information that show relation between local stores and the departmental store, that substantiates the trend in argument. Without the information stated above the argument remains weak and unconvincing.