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Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants

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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 13:19
By the way, let me ask. Has anyone come across an article detailing what happens after an applicant presses the submit button? I realize almost all schools have that on clearadmit except stanford. The process is so opaque!!!!
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 13:40
Stanford is the one school you cannot predict anything. I know people rejected at Chicago and NYU but accepted to Stanford.

I do wish they will make their process more transparent. i think Wharton and HBS have done great with their interview roll-outs.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 13:43
To the Seattle folks, some interviews in high tech have been out for a while :(
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 13:45
Any info on number of invites? profiles? No one from Seattle/Portland has posted on invite in the recent past.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 13:51
VibhaVKM wrote:
Any info on number of invites? profiles? No one from Seattle/Portland has posted on invite in the recent past.


I really don't think it's geography based. I know some people were invited in the US (west coast) several weeks back.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 14:13
Sorry should have been clearer. My fiancee's friend in one of the big tech companies in Seattle was invited a couple weeks back but I do believe that is not geography base.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 18:46
Guys if you call up admissions some where is an automated message that says order of interview invites are completely random not based on geography, first name, last name, strength of application etc.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 19 Nov 2012, 22:50
I really want to attebd gsb... I am confident i fit in their culture, and my credential is good enough. But no invite yet :(

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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 00:26
The official driving variable for the order of the invites is the order of the files being read (if you want another confirmation look at yesterday's post on their admissions blog). Therefore you have two cases :
- Your file has been read and you don't have an invitation : 0 % (+ waitlist odds)
- Your file has not been read and you don't have an invitation (obviously) : 14 % (+ waitlist odds)

Its as simple as that.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 06:16
There's a new post on the MBA Admissions Blog:

Quote:
MYTH 2: I received my interview invitation early in the round so it must mean I have a better chance of getting admitted.
THE TRUTH: The timing of your interview invitation reflects only the order in which your application was reviewed (and the order in which your application was reviewed doesn't mean anything, honest!). Interview invitations are extended from about a week or so after the round's deadline until about a week before the round's notification date, because it takes the Admissions Committee that entire period to review all applications thoroughly.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 06:52
So, those of you who have received invites lately, when did you submit your application?

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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 07:22
siris wrote:
The official driving variable for the order of the invites is the order of the files being read (if you want another confirmation look at yesterday's post on their admissions blog). Therefore you have two cases :
- Your file has been read and you don't have an invitation : 0 % (+ waitlist odds)
- Your file has not been read and you don't have an invitation (obviously) : 14 % (+ waitlist odds)

Its as simple as that.


Sure, but the two cases have different probabilities. Before any applications have been reviewed, there's a 100% chance of being in the second scenario, thus 14% chance. After all applications have been reviewed, there's a 100% chance of being in the first scenario, thus a 0% chance.

As we get later in the cycle and more applications have been reviewed, the likelihood of being in the first scenario outweighs the likelihood of being in the second scenario. So the odds kmcduw put out there are actually right.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 10:52
siris wrote:
The official driving variable for the order of the invites is the order of the files being read (if you want another confirmation look at yesterday's post on their admissions blog). Therefore you have two cases :
- Your file has been read and you don't have an invitation : 0 % (+ waitlist odds)
- Your file has not been read and you don't have an invitation (obviously) : 14 % (+ waitlist odds)

Its as simple as that.


Ok, I'll agree that that is the driving variable, but it's also an obvious one. I wouldn't consider a variable relevant in predicting my fate unless I know its value. I have no idea when the admissions committee read, or will read my application. I do know when I submitted it, where I live, what my major was, what my intended concentration was, what my GMAT score was, etc. Because I have to assume that the time my application is read is random, and that applications are read linearly throughout the review period, I stand by my calculation. Here it is in an easier format to understand that incorporates the above:

The probability at this point of your application having been read is 75% because we are 75% of the way through the review period. If your application was read, you were either invited to interview (100% chance), or not invited to interview (0% chance--we'll ignore waitlists). So this already-determined out come accounts for 75% of us. If we did not receive an invite, our only hope is to be in the remaining 25%.

We know that because a random variable (when your application is read) is the only driver of your odds, they remain at 14% even if your application has not been read. Therefore, your odds if you have not already been invited are 14% x 25% = 3.5%, which is similar to the 4% I provided earlier. I have some ideas of what the reconciling half percent is, but I'm not willing to spend the time to prove it out.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 15:17
Statistical probability should most definitely affect decision making. Isn't that what we do NPV analyses for investments? Isn't that how we adjust EV for risk? Isn't that how we decide what states to visit on a political campaign? Isn't that how we decide whether to continue operations in a failing company?

I would say that EVERY decision should be made based on its statistical support. Then again, I ran a multiple regression to draft my fantasy football teams this year, so maybe I'm a bit extreme.

I would think the best argument here is saying that the change in outcome is immaterial. Even in my Stanford/Haas example, it would be very easy to claim that the applicant would have already been applying to Haas, so this new information wouldn't change anything, just increased the EV of the decision already made.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 15:45
machichi wrote:

Go take a spa day.



How ironic. I'm actually on PTO today--one of several days that I strategically scheduled in the Nov - Jan time frame for potential interviews. Sadly, I'm not interviewing today for any school.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 15:48
SeasaltNPepper wrote:
kmcduw wrote:
I would say that EVERY decision should be made based on its statistical support.


I don't know man. yes, man(woman?). This admissions process, just like dating, is far too subjective to put effort into doing any sort of mathematical analysis. A lot of what is involved on the adcoms' part is intuition, gut, and an overall sense for how attractive a person's candidacy is - which is not always quantifiable. Just do the best you can in your apps, apply to where you want to go, and that's it.



Agreed. There are quantitative factors and subjective factors. However, the subjective factors are basically considered random noise that impairs the statistic. If there were no subjective factors, we'd all know if we were accepted before we ever applied. Instead we have to summarize them into cumulative probabilities across all applicants.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 15:54
kmcduw wrote:
Statistical probability should most definitely affect decision making. Isn't that what we do NPV analyses for investments? Isn't that how we adjust EV for risk? Isn't that how we decide what states to visit on a political campaign? Isn't that how we decide whether to continue operations in a failing company?

I would say that EVERY decision should be made based on its statistical support. Then again, I ran a multiple regression to draft my fantasy football teams this year, so maybe I'm a bit extreme.

I would think the best argument here is saying that the change in outcome is immaterial. Even in my Stanford/Haas example, it would be very easy to claim that the applicant would have already been applying to Haas, so this new information wouldn't change anything, just increased the EV of the decision already made.


I don't do NPV analysis or adjust EV for risk. I won't even google it for that matter.

Btw Nate Silver called, he wants his stats notes back. Cheers =)
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 16:26
dawizard wrote:
Btw Nate Silver called, he wants his stats notes back. Cheers =)


Also Nate Silver is GAY. I'm so in love.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 20 Nov 2012, 16:28
Yes. I feel like I spent more time trying to justify the value of knowing that the odds of being invited are now at 4% than I did figuring out that they were 4%. Coming up with the 4% probably took me about 5 minutes, and I figured some folks might be curious, considering that everyone posting has been trying to figure out if they are still in the game. Maybe I'll preface any other quick and dirty analysis with a disclaimer that I'm not going to waste my time explaining it.
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Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants [#permalink] New post 21 Nov 2012, 00:21
It would be AWESOME if someone could PM me with specifics about the interview. I tried to help others out after my Booth interview and my GSB interview is coming up in a few days. Thanks in advance!
Re: Stanford GSB 2013 - Calling all Applicants   [#permalink] 21 Nov 2012, 00:21
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