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The news on Lehman

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The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 08:21
Is anyone else shaken up by the news on Lehman? I'm really starting to wonder whether it would be a smart idea to hold off applications for a year.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 11 Sep 2008, 17:10
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jb32 wrote:
terp06 wrote:
I would also venture to guess that it is somewhat difficult to reasonably ascertain whether or not someone is "good enough" for banking from just on-campus interviews and the recruiting process. People either adapt to the lifestyle and the work of banking or they don't and leave.

I've met some people that are the truly top guys at PE shops and bulge-bracket banks. The guys that make $20+ million a year and believe me, you can ascertain they are a bad ass in 5 minutes. It's not that tough to tell.


Are these associates or long time bankers that you are referring to as bad ass? I would think anyone that has been at one company or industry for so long would be a bad ass. I think the question Terp06 was asking is if there are any initial indicators that can reveal one's potential in a specific field like IB. I think that is hard to judge, if not impossible.

I also ask myself the same question. I am a definite career changer, and if I do not get into a top school to break into IB, I can not justify the cost of attending business school; however, I will most likely attend or do something because I am not currently satisfied with where I am and feel that I can do more. I guess it comes down to the individuals drive.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 18 Sep 2008, 13:16
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smkrn wrote:
pelihu -

Obviously, I don't know much about your situation or know you personally, but how has the last week affected your job prospects? Were you planning to return to the i-banking firm that you interned with this summer? If you don't mind me asking, is that still the plan? I'm just curious how this is affecting someone that has already completed an internship (and one that seemed to be pretty good, judging from your posts).


Actually, my plan even before the start of the summer was to explore opportunities in investment management. The IB recruiting cycle starts really early and I jumped on board last fall, but later in the year I got involved with Darden Capital Management and found that to be very interesting. That said, I actually had a very good experience doing banking over the summer (was lucky enough to work in LA, my hometown, with my top choice firm) and would have seriously considered accepting an offer under normal circumstances.

Of course, things have changed a lot, between last fall with recruiting and the start of the summer, between the start of the summer and the end of the summer, and drastically again in the past few weeks. Jobs in banking will definitely be more challenging to land this year, but folks who interned at bulge bracket banks are actually getting a lot of attention from smaller banks and boutiques (just got hit with 2 invites in the past 1/2 hour to private recruiting events). I actually think that people who were with the bulge brackets last summer have a good shot to land with smaller investment banks (I'm speaking of Darden, I can't imagine how smaller banks will accommodate the numbers at Columbia or NYU), but a lot of important factors have changed since last fall.

So everyone will have different factors that are important to them. I'd love to return to California (many investment management jobs are in the North East) and I'd like a job with a fairly stable firm with a good prospects for business growth going forward. The opportunity to build experience is valuable, and adding a blue chip name to the resume is a plus for me as well (I've worked for private firms and started my own business before business school). I don't mind long hours if pay is commensurate, and I don't want to be forced to travel to "flyover country" on a regular basis. I think identifying what you are looking for is a better exercise than just defining a specific job or industry track. Sure, I'd like to do banking, but not if I have to live in Cleveland (sorry to anyone who lives there) and accept pay that is far off the pace.

So, based on my own profile, I'd love to find a money manager in California, a hedge fund or investment management company. I would definitely consider a boutique bank if they look well positioned to capture some market share (and with all the big names going down, market share is up for grabs for sure), and especially if they let me work in California. I've also been talking to consulting firms (they're making a push for summer bankers as well) and if I can work out of an office in California targeting a West Coast business, that could be a good option given uncertainty in the finance industry. The specifics are important though, some consulting firms average 2-3 days of travel per week, some 4-5 days; some staff projects nationally (cross-country flights) and some regionally.

A month ago, or even a week ago, few would have guessed that Morgan and Goldman would be under such pressure, so it's hard to say what a good job in banking is at this point. I really believe that things will come around, and in a year or two banking will again be a preferred MBA destination, but it's pretty hard to figure out where to hang your hat for now. I'm definitely leaning towards other options at this point, but I'm thankful that bulge bracket experience is highly valued, given the challenging job market right now.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2008, 10:16
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I think most people understand that we are all to blame here. I think the problem that most people have is that even though we are all to blame people like Richard Fuld raked in $22.1 million in 2007 and even more on the way out the door in 2008. So you make huge amounts of money when you're up and huge amounts of money when you fail. So now your telling me that we the tax payers need to bail you out to save our economy. Maybe so, but if that the case then when you took your huge bonuses over the last couple years that wasn't money you earned. You essentially took out massive amounts of debt to pay yourself and then when the company goes bankrupt you look to the taxpayers to pay the bill.

So let's agree that you didn't create enough wealth in 2007 to warrant $22.1 million. How about you return that money and use it help all the people that will get laid off.

So I was to blame for taking out a mortgage I couldn't afford and you're to blame for running this racket. Yet I lose my house and you get richer. I can see it now. When the government needs to look to consultants in the future to figure out the best way to recoup their money who are they going to look to. Bingo, the same guys who screwed it up in the first place. So you make money screwing it up, more money when it fails, and yet more money to sort it out.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2008, 12:48
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pelihu wrote:
Just to clarify, Lehman had a record year in 2007 - virtually all of the investment banks did.


That's my point, then didn't truly have a record year.

I guess I look at it this way. If in 2007 my mortgage is $1M and some appraiser tells me my house is worth $10M then I could say I'm worth $9M. So I decide to take out a home equity loan for that $9M and pay it to myself. Wow, this is a record year. So then 2008 comes around and the appraiser tells me I'm sorry, that house you bought for $1M that I told you is worth $10M is really only worth the $1M. So now I owe $10M on a $1M house because I spent the other $9M. Boy I sure am glad that 2007 was record year.

It's not like these banks are all of sudden losing money. They are writing down the value of assets that were garbage. The same inflated assets they used to justify record growth. So essentially you take crappy assets, say their worth a lot and get everyone to agree. With all these phony assets you now have record profits on your books that you use to pay yourself and all your buddies. And then when it's found out that the assets are phony you mark them down to what they are really worth and the look for a bail out. All the while you and your buddies get to keep the money you made.

Now I'm sure its more complicated than that, but to us common folk on main street thats the way we see it. I don't proclaim to be smart enough to know whether a bail out is or isn't need. I just know I'd rather be on the other side of this deal.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 23 Sep 2008, 16:09
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I'm not trying to single out Lehman. I just used Fuld as an example because I recently read and article on him and had the information in my head. Substitute AIG instead. If I recall correctly there was speculation that Lehman could get a bail out, but obviously they didn't. I making a broad generalization of the industry as a whole in response to the proposed $700B bail out.

"If you had taken that $9 m and invested it and bought more hard assets, then you would be closer to the role of an investment bank,"

Regardless, you took something and said it was worth more than what it was and then used the inflated value to buy more assets. Without the inflated value you would have never been able to make those profits.

If you want to be a cynic and make asinine statements, then by all means. However, his life is filled with more accomplishment than most people's ever will and that is a fact.

What the heck are these accomplishments other than making money? How is this a fact? I guess we have a different sense of accomplishments.

In who's employment agreement does it say that a person owe's the company money if the company loses money? Why would anyone ever take that job? Yeah, you still get paid even if the company loses money, that's how it works.

I agree in general. But to me the problem is that way CEO's and workers are paid isn't the same. Your paid for an output. But a CEO can say let's ship 20K jobs overseas saving us $1M a year. Since I saved us this money I have created this wealth and I'm entitled to a portion of it. If the worker comes up with the same idea do you compensate them additionaly, No (which is why people are running to use the comment box). If were going to compensate you for being right but can't penalize you for being wrong then why is the job so hard? Worse case scenario is you get fired. So what's to keep you from focusing on short-term profits even at expense of the long term viability of the company? So what if the company fails years down the road and the shareholders values goes to $0.00 as long as you make $20 million for a few years.

Just as a note, this was from the 2008 Lehman Brother's compensation plan describing 2007:
- Delivered record net revenue, net income, and EPS for the 4th consecutive year
- Delivered a 10% increase in net revenue, to $19.3 billion
- Achieved record net revenues across ALL lines of business
- Reported record non-US net revenues, which accounted for 50% of overall firm net revenues
- 5 year total shareholder return of 92% was second only to GS among IBs
- Total shareholder return from 1999-2008 was 297%, averaging 17% a year

Sounds like a good run to me?


If it was such a good run then why are they bankrupt months later :?:

You can jump out the window of a 60 story high rise and think you're flying for 59 floors, but it's the last floor that gets you.

If all of these record profits could be handed out without the inflated assets then why can't they simply take the loss? They spent money that they didn't have. They were at the roulette table making bets with money they didn't have. When they were winning it was easy money. But when they lost the bet and had to pay up the Casino realized the chips weren't real and threw them out.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 08:44
Hold off because you're afraid of finance recruiting or because you're afraid of additonal applicants?
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 08:48
I'm not sure what's going to happen with Lehman. I could see a scenario where they go under in the next two weeks or they are able to ride out the storm and continue, although at a smaller version of their current size. What I'm wondering is why the Koreans got so spooked at the last minute? Of course, who knows what is the truth behind closed doors and what is told to the media.

As far as bschool, I'm applying now and looking to get in on the first floor of the next bull run in the spring of 2011!
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 08:51
I don't think this is really all that much of a surprise. Nothing has change in my thought process about Why MBA Now, but then again I know you are relatively young and waiting a year could very well improve your chances at admission.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 09:04
I am very scared of finance recruiting and stiff competition and general scarcity of banking internships that will be available for Summer 2010. In my opinion, if I don't break into a top finance job out of my MBA, I would have a very difficult time justifying the foregone income and costs.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 09:14
terp06 wrote:
I am very scared of finance recruiting and stiff competition and general scarcity of banking internships that will be available for Summer 2010. In my opinion, if I don't break into a top finance job out of my MBA, I would have a very difficult time justifying the foregone income and costs.


Summer internships may be tougher to get, but recruiting should pick up for class of 2011 full time (that recruiting starts in 2 years). You may not have a bulge bracket internship - you may need to settle for a boutique - but then the bulge brackets will come back for full time hiring and take many more full timers than they did interns. There will not be nearly enough bulge bracket interns to fill their full time classes (since intern recruiting was down) so they will significantly broaden their search and anybody that had any kind of finance/boutique ibank internship will have a shot.

That's my guess at least. There is also a chance intern recruiting won't drop to badly since summer interns are relatively cheap (they are only on the hook for about 10-12 weeks worth of pay).
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 09:48
I wouldn't worry about recruiting as much in 2010. ALOT can happen between now and then. I would also guess recruiting will not drop off as much as people think. Take into account that a 1st year Associate is much cheaper to employ than a 3rd year or a VP. When banks do layoffs, they tend to fire the VPs first and then 3rd or even 4th year associates knowing there is not that much of a drop-off in performance between those levels and 2nd year asscoiates, although there is a tremendous cost savings.

As far as where we are in the economic cycle, I would say we are probably 7 years ahead of the 2001 recession and on a pretty similar month by month timeframe. By that logic, the class of 2011 will be in the best shape to take advantage of the next bull market. Expect 3-5 good years before the next fiasco.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 09:49
IHateTheGMAT wrote:
terp06 wrote:
I am very scared of finance recruiting and stiff competition and general scarcity of banking internships that will be available for Summer 2010. In my opinion, if I don't break into a top finance job out of my MBA, I would have a very difficult time justifying the foregone income and costs.


Summer internships may be tougher to get, but recruiting should pick up for class of 2011 full time (that recruiting starts in 2 years). You may not have a bulge bracket internship - you may need to settle for a boutique - but then the bulge brackets will come back for full time hiring and take many more full timers than they did interns. There will not be nearly enough bulge bracket interns to fill their full time classes (since intern recruiting was down) so they will significantly broaden their search and anybody that had any kind of finance/boutique ibank internship will have a shot.

That's my guess at least. There is also a chance intern recruiting won't drop to badly since summer interns are relatively cheap (they are only on the hook for about 10-12 weeks worth of pay).


Those are both very good points.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 10:07
On a side note, I want to nominate Terp for most paranoid on this board. :wink:

Of course, it's usually the people who end up doing incredible things that worry the most. Just look at 'NervousGmat' last year. Can we do an annual list of awards on this board that are handed out in March or April? examples: Most Paranoid, Biggest Longshot, Surprise Admit, Top Applicant, Highest GMAT, Biggest Contributor, etc.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 10:16
jb32 wrote:
On a side note, I want to nominate Terp for most paranoid on this board. :wink:

Of course, it's usually the people who end up doing incredible things that worry the most. Just look at 'NervousGmat' last year. Can we do an annual list of awards on this board that are handed out in March or April? examples: Most Paranoid, Biggest Longshot, Surprise Admit, Top Applicant, Highest GMAT, Biggest Contributor, etc.


Honestly, I consider that to be one of my biggest weaknesses. There is a certain level of healthy skepticism that is necessary to be a good business person, but I definitely go over the top sometimes.

Thanks for your input as well by the way. Hopefully things should pick up.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 10:18
jb32 wrote:
Can we do an annual list of awards on this board that are handed out in March or April? examples: Most Paranoid, Biggest Longshot, Surprise Admit, Top Applicant, Highest GMAT, Biggest Contributor, etc.


YES! I nominate pelihu for the longest average post that doesn't go off topic.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 11:16
terp06 wrote:
I am very scared of finance recruiting and stiff competition and general scarcity of banking internships that will be available for Summer 2010. In my opinion, if I don't break into a top finance job out of my MBA, I would have a very difficult time justifying the foregone income and costs.


I wouldn't worry. My opinion is if you're qualified enough to get a top finance job, in any year, then you will be able to find a good position that will justify the costs and experience. Maybe you don't end up with a position at Goldman, but there will be many opportunities out there. If you just plain don't stack up to the competition (not saying this is the case) you probably wouldn't have gotten the top finance job no matter what the economy is like.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 11:38
One other point to make based on Cogar's comment.

I read "The Accidental Investment Banker" recently and the author makes a pretty good point about banking during bull market times. He talks about the people that were hired during the huge run-up in telecom and media that coincided with the internet bubble and basically came to the conclusion that the bank's hiring standards greatly diminished when times were good. They had to get bodies in the chairs to keep up with the massive deal flow. Now these people weren't necessarily idiots, but they would also never have been hired if the banks weren't making money hand over fist. So what I am saying is that you don't want to be one of these people. You don't want to be the guy (or girl) that got a job due to economic affirmitive action because when everything washes out, you will be the first one fired. You might be able to get by for a few years (and make some great money), but if you aren't good enough to be at a bulge-bracket bank, people will find out soon enough.

I would guess just about everyone on this board wants to find out if they are really good enough to be a good banker and not just an EAA hire. I think only you know if banking is truly a realistic career goal, or just wishful thinking. So if you really are good enough, then I don't think you will have a huge problem. If you aren't good enough then it's not like there aren't a million mid-market banks that wouldn't hire someone from Wharton, Chicago, or Kellogg.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 11:50
jb32 wrote:
One other point to make based on Cogar's comment.

I read "The Accidental Investment Banker" recently and the author makes a pretty good point about banking during bull market times. He talks about the people that were hired during the huge run-up in telecom and media that coincided with the internet bubble and basically came to the conclusion that the bank's hiring standards greatly diminished when times were good. They had to get bodies in the chairs to keep up with the massive deal flow. Now these people weren't necessarily idiots, but they would also never have been hired if the banks weren't making money hand over fist. So what I am saying is that you don't want to be one of these people. You don't want to be the guy (or girl) that got a job due to economic affirmitive action because when everything washes out, you will be the first one fired. You might be able to get by for a few years (and make some great money), but if you aren't good enough to be at a bulge-bracket bank, people will find out soon enough.

I would guess just about everyone on this board wants to find out if they are really good enough to be a good banker and not just an EAA hire. I think only you know if banking is truly a realistic career goal, or just wishful thinking. So if you really are good enough, then I don't think you will have a huge problem. If you aren't good enough then it's not like there aren't a million mid-market banks that wouldn't hire someone from Wharton, Chicago, or Kellogg.


Good analysis and good debate for sure. I have to play devil's advocate though. A lot of people only go into banking wanting to spend 2-3 years as an associate because they know it will provide them a mutlitude of exit opportunities on the buy-side. Sure, they won't likely get into KKR or Blackstone and other very structured mega funds at the associate level (they only hire analysts), but there are still plenty of excellent buy-side exit opportunities out there for those who don't see themselves as career bankers.

With banking (or consulting), if you're only looking to spend 2-3 years to get your stamp of approval on your resume and move on to either a corporate or buy-side role, it really does not matter whether you got in during a good time or a bad time. I would venture to say that it may barely even matter how good of a banker or a consultant you were either. Lastly, the best exit opportunities are obviously had out of the bulge brackets and out of M/B/B, not out of middle-market banks or 2nd tier consulting firms.

I would also venture to guess that it is somewhat difficult to reasonably ascertain whether or not someone is "good enough" for banking from just on-campus interviews and the recruiting process. People either adapt to the lifestyle and the work of banking or they don't and leave.

As for myself, I have no idea if I'm "good enough" to land a job in a bad economic market or a good one. Can I just go through recruiting before I sign on the dotted line for my student loans? That'd be great, thanks in advance.
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Re: The news on Lehman [#permalink] New post 10 Sep 2008, 12:26
terp06 wrote:
I would also venture to guess that it is somewhat difficult to reasonably ascertain whether or not someone is "good enough" for banking from just on-campus interviews and the recruiting process. People either adapt to the lifestyle and the work of banking or they don't and leave.

I've met some people that are the truly top guys at PE shops and bulge-bracket banks. The guys that make $20+ million a year and believe me, you can ascertain they are a bad ass in 5 minutes. It's not that tough to tell.
Re: The news on Lehman   [#permalink] 10 Sep 2008, 12:26
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