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The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown

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The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 10 Jul 2013, 03:24
The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown is quite foolish. There is sufficient funding to pay the salaries of the new officers, but not the salaries of additional court and prison employees to process the increased caseload of arrests and convictions that new officers usually generate.

Which of the following, if true, will most seriously weaken the conclusion drawn above?

(A) Studies have shown that an increase in a city’s police force does not necessarily reduce crime.
(B) When one major city increased its police force by 19 percent last year, there were 40 percent more arrests and 13 percent more convictions.
(C) If funding for the new police officers’ salaries is approved, support for other city services will have to be reduced during the next fiscal year.
(D) In most United States cities, not all arrests result in convictions, and not all convictions result in prison terms.
(E) Middletown’s ratio of police officers to citizens has reached a level at which an increase in the number of officers will have a deterrent effect on crime.

Last edited by Narenn on 10 Jul 2013, 06:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 10 Jul 2013, 11:19
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nikhil.jones.s wrote:
The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown is quite foolish. There is sufficient funding to pay the salaries of the new officers, but not the salaries of additional court and prison employees to process the increased caseload of arrests and convictions that new officers usually generate.

Which of the following, if true, will most seriously weaken the conclusion drawn above?

(A) Studies have shown that an increase in a city’s police force does not necessarily reduce crime.
(B) When one major city increased its police force by 19 percent last year, there were 40 percent more arrests and 13 percent more convictions.
(C) If funding for the new police officers’ salaries is approved, support for other city services will have to be reduced during the next fiscal year.
(D) In most United States cities, not all arrests result in convictions, and not all convictions result in prison terms.
(E) Middletown’s ratio of police officers to citizens has reached a level at which an increase in the number of officers will have a deterrent effect on crime.


ANALYZE THE STIMULUS:

Fact: There is sufficient funding to pay the salaries of the new officers,
Fact: But not the salaries of additional court and prison employees to process the increased caseload of arrests and convictions that new officers usually generate
Conclusion: Middletown should not hire more police officers.

In weaken questions, you will see "qualified conclusions" very often. What is "qualified conclusion"?. A qualified conclusion is a conclusion that will happen in a particular condition. To weaken this conclusion, just show that particular condition will not happen, or does not exist ==> The conclusion fails.

Apply to this question. The conclusion is based on the assumption: the more police officers, the more convictions. If you can show this assumption is weak --> More police officers, NOT more convictions. ==> The conclusion will be weaken.

ANALYZE EACH ANSWER:

(A) Studies have shown that an increase in a city’s police force does not necessarily reduce crime.
Wrong. It strengthen a conclusion --> wrong.

(B) When one major city increased its police force by 19 percent last year, there were 40 percent more arrests and 13 percent more convictions.
Wrong. It strengthen a conclusion --> wrong.

(C) If funding for the new police officers’ salaries is approved, support for other city services will have to be reduced during the next fiscal year.
Wrong. Out of scope. Nothing about "other services".

(D) In most United States cities, not all arrests result in convictions, and not all convictions result in prison terms.
Wrong. SHELL GAME.
(1) "In most U.S cities" does not mean "in Middletown". There is a possibility that "more police officers, more convictions in Middletown" --> D is wrong.
(2) Always aware of "extreme" words in GMAT such as: Most, Every, All, Always, Never, etc. Because the logic of GMAT is "nothing is the 100% correct, you should pick the best answer among all options". "Best" differs from "100% correct".

(E) Middletown’s ratio of police officers to citizens has reached a level at which an increase in the number of officers will have a deterrent effect on crime.
Correct. E shows that more police officers, NO more convictions ==> the city does not have to pay more for courts and prison employees.

Hope it helps.
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Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 16 Nov 2013, 00:51
you have to read D very carefully to be able to eliminate it. E is the right answer.
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Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 25 Jan 2015, 04:38
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Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 22 Jul 2016, 05:15
Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

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Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 24 Sep 2016, 10:31
The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown is quite foolish. There is sufficient funding to pay the salaries of the new officers, but not the salaries of additional court and prison employees to process the increased caseload of arrests and convictions that new officers usually generate.

Type - weaken
Boil it down - The proposal to hire 10 new police officers is foolish .
- Although there is sufficient funding for new officer salaries , but not the salaries of additional court and prison employees to process increase caseload of arrests

Pre-Thinking - Some reason due to which the caseload of arrests and convictions won't increase

Which of the following, if true, will most seriously weaken the conclusion drawn above?
a. Studies had shown that an increase in city’s place force does not necessarily reduce crime - Incorrect
b. When one major city increased its police force by 19% last year, there were 40% more arrests and 13% more convictions - Incorrect - we don't know 10 is what percentage of workforce but we can infer that caseload of arrests and convictions will increase
c. If funding for the new police officers’ salaries is approved, support for other city services will have to be reduced during the next fiscal year - Irrelevant
d. In most US cities, not all arrests result in convictions, and not all convictions result in prison terms - Incorrect as convictions and prison terms still might increase
e. Middletown’s ratio of police officers to citizens has reached a level at which an increase in the number of officers will have a deterrent effect on crime . Correct -
The new officers will have a deterrent effect on crime . So , no additional expenditure on support services will be needed

Answer E
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Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 19 Dec 2016, 15:43
When potential answers use phrases like "most" or "almost all", it is usually a sign of a trap answer.
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Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown [#permalink]

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New post 19 Dec 2016, 18:14
The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown is quite foolish. There is sufficient funding to pay the salaries of the new officers, but not the salaries of additional court and prison employees to process the increased caseload of arrests and convictions that new officers usually generate.

Which of the following, if true, will most seriously weaken the conclusion drawn above?

Structure: More cops --(1)--> More arrests and increased caseload --(2)--> Additional court and prison employees required and more salaries to be paid

To Weaken:
Linkage 1: More cops might not lead to increased number of arrests. Maybe crimes won't take place at the first place because of the increased number of cops.
Linkage 2: If the current workforce is able to handle the increased caseload then there won't be a requirement for an additional workforce.


a. Studies had shown that an increase in city’s place force does not necessarily reduce crime
Two situations stem from this point: (a) Crime rate remains same - in such a case no additional workforce is required. (b) Crime rate increases - in such a case an additional workforce might be required. Since we have both the possibilities, so not a strong option.
b. When one major city increased its police force by 19% last year, there were 40% more arrests and 13% more convictions
This point strengthens the Linkage 1 whereas we are here to weaken.
c. If funding for the new police officers’ salaries is approved, support for other city services will have to be reduced during the next fiscal year
Other city services - Out of Scope.
d. In most US cities, not all arrests result in convictions, and not all convictions result in prison terms
Let's imagine two scenarios:
SC1: [Before the new cops are hired] Arrests: 100 Convictions: 99 (not all) Prison Terms: 98 (not all).
SC2: [After the new cops are hired] Arrests: 150 Convictions: 149 (not all) Prison Terms: 148 (not all).
Even though the condition of 'not all' is satisfied across the scenarios, we might have a case which strengthens the argument.

e. Middletown’s ratio of police officers to citizens has reached a level at which an increase in the number of officers will have a deterrent effect on crime
This point hits the Linkage 1. An increase in the number of cops WILL bring down the crime rate and, thus, won't lead to an increased workload.

Thus, I chose option E.
Re: The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown   [#permalink] 19 Dec 2016, 18:14

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The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown nikhil.jones.s 0 10 Jul 2013, 03:24
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The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown TomB 0 02 Mar 2012, 15:14
The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown techyrajeev 0 29 Jul 2011, 11:00
The proposal to hire ten new police officers in Middletown RyanDe680 7 09 May 2008, 18:39
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