The stock tips thread : Financial Markets
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Director
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16 Apr 2010, 13:15
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with so many of us either going to or already graduated from b-school, i thought it'd be a good idea to start a thread so people can give stock tips / picks for the week. so as not to get gmatclub fined or shut down, let's keep insider trading info to a minimum

is anyone looking to pick up some GS after their big drop today (-13%)? i picked a little bit up, although i really dont know if it will continue to drop or not. i did the same shortly after toyota stock went down, and i made a decent return in about 2 months.
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Director
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09 Jul 2010, 10:05
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I finally turned a modest gain on BP after the past few days of rallying in the market. It's tough to say if it will hold or not. Regardless, I wasn't looking at this as a short term play, but rather a longer term investment.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/09/markets ... /index.htm
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23 Apr 2010, 06:04
You and Buffett seem to think alike.
Fundamentally, GS looks like a good buy but there's too much risk for me. (News of financial reform, ongoing SEC investigations, Greece uncertainty, etc.)

A Goldman director is being investigated for giving out insider information which might be a huge blow if investigators have strong evidence.

The market seems iffy to buy now. We haven't had a major blow (that was only like 1% to the Dow anyway) to stocks since the SEC's fraud charges. Most stocks look overpriced and we might see a correction soon. (Historically, May has not been friendly to stocks) Plus, you have to worry about increasing oil prices that could adversely affect the market.

I like UCO, a leveraged etf for oil. Summer is almost here and that's driving season.
Director
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06 May 2010, 16:47
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64600S20100507

i remember casually looking at my portfolio and seeing that everything was taking a beating today. WTF?

i realize the economy is still fragile (not to mention greece's mounting economic woes), but something didnt seem right. i'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories, but you figure at least one person is making off like a bandit today.
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06 May 2010, 17:37
Apparently there were some mistakes with transactions. (fat fingers)

But, this correction was foreseen. The markets (took like 3 months) finally factored in the Greek exposure. Everything I said before, from the Euro uncertainty to the bank reform, has seemed to make a perfect run of the bears. There were basically no bidders -- all sellers.

Unfortunately, I made losses with my oil fund. (Thanks a lot random oil spill!) But my short positions made up for it anyway.

Today was definitely a wild day. Think big term: A day like this would become even more evidence for financial reform. Not sure if that is a good thing or bad thing. (Depends on what those politicians come up with)

I wouldn't be long anything right now until this credit crisis cools down. (Not just with Greece; the other PIIGS too)
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01 Jun 2010, 20:06
how far will BP continue to fall? down 40% over the past couple of weeks - will it ever recover?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... id=topnews

i havent bought any BP stock just yet (and i'm glad, since it went down another 15% yesterday)
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02 Jun 2010, 09:26
Long time between now and August (when BP/USG estimate they'll be able to get the relief wells intersected, which could possibly make things worse rather than better).
Director
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03 Jun 2010, 06:37
i couldnt resist and bought a relatively small amount today around $38. i'll pick some more up in the coming days or weeks, based on whichever direction the oil cleanup appears to be headed _________________ Manager Joined: 14 Apr 2010 Posts: 72 Followers: 1 Kudos [?]: 10 [0], given: 9 Re: The stock tips thread [#permalink] ### Show Tags 03 Jun 2010, 14:28 shadowsjc wrote: i couldnt resist and bought a relatively small amount today around$38. i'll pick some more up in the coming days or weeks, based on whichever direction the oil cleanup appears to be headed

You also have to be wary of the legislative backlash once this thing is over. (Heck, even now there has been talks)
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09 Jun 2010, 14:01
And BP plummets...

The sad part is that this might not even be the last drop. (BP's market cap has halved since the accident occurred) Contrary to what BP's CEO said about situation, oil is still gushing rapidly into the ocean. It might take weeks for BP to become a safe bet. (This is assuming the damages aren't severe)

Renewable energy might be the sector to profit most from this accident. I also might try Exxon Mobil.
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10 Jun 2010, 09:05
And BP recovers..

yeah the oil situation isn't resolved 100%. but analysts seem to think BP is stable for now. what really pisses me off is how google finance linked to a random blog stating that BP might possibly seek bankrupcy protection. the headline of the article? "BP declaring bankrupcy". stuff like that isn't even news, yet somehow it still passes google's filter. weird
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14 Jun 2010, 15:03
"BP plunged again, falling 9% following news that the company had hired Blackstone (BX) and Goldman Sachs (GS) to advise it. Presumably the company is looking for anti-takeover protection. There's still no official word on the dividend." -business insider

Seems like every day the market reverses itself during late trading... Everyone seems to be betting that the oil spill damages will be absorbed by BP. I still find it questionable since BP has been lying since the very start about how bad it really is. Who knows how much they'll force BP to put into an escrow account.

I also question the viability of the Euro (which has been a major influencing factor for equities); too many European banks are heavily exposed to the PIIGS countries. It might even come down to the Chinese to bail out the whole Eurozone.

The future looks grim and unstable...
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16 Jun 2010, 21:30
strikethree wrote:
The future looks grim and unstable...

you must be one of those guys that bet against the market in 2008 right?

anyway, as i had posted earlier, BP again rebounded after going down previously. is it gonna go down to pennies like Citi did? maybe, but even they recovered from those lows. is BP going out of business? nothing i've read from a reputable source has indicated this
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17 Jun 2010, 16:59
strikethree wrote:
The future looks grim and unstable...

you must be one of those guys that bet against the market in 2008 right?

anyway, as i had posted earlier, BP again rebounded after going down previously. is it gonna go down to pennies like Citi did? maybe, but even they recovered from those lows. is BP going out of business? nothing i've read from a reputable source has indicated this

Honestly, I hate shorting... It makes you want the economy to fail. More often than not, stocks go up anyway so shorting is not a great long term tool to use. I only short when I am at least 80% sure that something is amiss and I always have a protective stop to get out of the position if it gets out of hand.

I try not to be a knee-jerk buyer either. If a company takes a plunge even though it looks solid, I still like to wait it out to get more facts. Investor sentiment can be even stronger than pure fundamentals. A lot of people bought stocks like BP or Toyota during it's first plunge and are now regretting it. For me, I know there will always be chances to buy/sell so I don't feel compelled to make a move. C plunged when every stock in the market took a dive when the bubble burst. I don't think these cases are comparable. If you look at the technicals, the stock has been zigzagging every since -- it's not a stock I like to play with.

So far, they've reported pretty bad homebuilding reports and Philly Fed indices. (yet the market has been flat) We'll see what happens once contracts expire tomorrow...
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11 Jul 2010, 12:16
I still see BP as too risky. The market just doesn't know how to treat them... I'm going to wait and see the full financial and legal ramifications of the spill. I don't invest on guesses.
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11 Jul 2010, 12:17
But then again, I'm a boring value investor, so what do I know?
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13 Jul 2010, 20:46
i think this article sums up our back and forth for the past week or so... the need to temper optimism with caution

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... EFTTopNews
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28 Sep 2010, 08:36
update on BP: since i started picking some up, it's given me a 19% return. not bad for a ~3-4 month period. i probably won't sell it just yet though, as i think it has room to rise further

GS on the other hand gave me a slightly positive return as late as last week, but has dipped in the red once again this week. this is probably going to be a longer term one
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28 Sep 2010, 10:08
GS is a sketchy company. But they government is just giving them a slap on the wrist mainly because of their international position and the 'too big to fall' policy. Not too sure how well I think of Lloyd. Dude's a sneaky sneaky man. Wouldn't be surprised if he had a hand in all the recent financial conspiracy.
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28 Sep 2010, 19:30
vwjetty wrote:
GS is a sketchy company. But they government is just giving them a slap on the wrist mainly because of their international position and the 'too big to fall' policy. Not too sure how well I think of Lloyd. Dude's a sneaky sneaky man. Wouldn't be surprised if he had a hand in all the recent financial conspiracy.

Well, he's a banker... what did you expect?

I actually shorted financials during the bear week. But, I'm not sure how long this correction will last if Bernanke is just going to keep on pouring money into the system.

Last edited by strikethree on 28 Sep 2010, 20:00, edited 2 times in total.

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