The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it

For any discrepancy/paradox CR, a good first step is to make sure you clearly understand what the discrepancy is. In this case, the discrepancy itself is fairly straightforward: "In the US, the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased."

Huh... if the number of smokers has gone down, wouldn't that decrease total tobacco sales? And if sales are down, wouldn't total profits also decrease? Instead, tobacco sales have increased, and projections indicate the tobacco industry will remain profitable.

As we analyze the answer choices, we need to eliminate anything that COULD explain this apparent discrepancy. Make sure you pay close attention to the word "could" in the question stem. We can eliminate an answer choice even if it might not necessarily explain the discrepancy. As long as it could POSSIBLY explain a simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke, we can cross it off:


Even if (A) is true, the TOTAL NUMBER of adults who smoke has decreased. So there must be something else that makes up for this statistic and produces a net decrease in adult smokers. For example, perhaps the number of women who have quit far exceeds the number of men who have begun to smoke.

How the numbers are broken down among different groups of adults (i.e. by gender, age group, ethnicity, etc.), makes no difference. Regardless of the details, the bottom line is that there has been a NET DECREASE in the number of adults who smoke. Therefore, we would still expect sales and profits to decrease. (A) could not explain a simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke, so keep this one.


Again, we know that we have a net decrease in the number of adults who smoke. But what about smokers who are NOT adults (i.e. teen-age children)? If the number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke is GREATER than the number of adults who have quit smoking, then it is POSSIBLE that the net increase in teen smokers exceeds the net decrease in adult smokers. That would indeed explain the discrepancy.

Remember, we don't need to PROVE that this explains the discrepancy. We don't know how many teens quit smoking or how many adults started smoking. As a result, we cannot actually determine whether the net increase in teen smoking exceeds the net decrease in adult smoking. Regardless, this is a possible explanation, so cross of (B).


A net decrease in adult smoking would contribute to a decrease in tobacco sales. But smoking is only one form of tobacco use. If the number of nonsmokers who use chewing tobacco increases, that would contribute to an INCREASE in tobacco sales. That increase COULD exceed the decrease caused by a reduction in adult smoking, so (C) COULD explain the discrepancy. Since this is a possible explanation, eliminate (C).


We know that the NUMBER of adult smokers has decreased, but does that necessarily mean that total tobacco use has decreased? For example, what if those who did not quit started to consume a much greater quantity of tobacco themselves? Sure, tobacco sales are negatively impacted as people quit, but an increase in consumption per person among non-quitters would positively affect sales.

If that positive effect exceeds the reduction in sales caused by the decrease in adult smokers, then we would have a net increase in sales despite a net decrease in adult smokers. Choice (D) could explain the discrepancy, so eliminate (D).


Perhaps smoking in the US has declined, which would reduce local demand for cigarettes. But perhaps cigarette companies have started selling more cigarettes overseas. If the increase in overseas sales exceeds the loss in local sales, then there would be a net increase in tobacco sales. This would explain how the number of adult smokers in the US could decrease while total tobacco sales increases. (E) is a possible explanation, so eliminate (E).

Choice (A) is the only one that could not explain the discrepancy, so (A) is the best answer.