The upcoming presidential election in the West African republic of Ganelon is of grave concern to the U.S. State Department. Ganelon presently has strong political and military ties to the United States. However, the Socialist party is widely expected to win the election, leading to fears that Ganelon will soon break away from the pro-American bloc and adopt a nonaligned or openly anti-American stance.
Which of the following is an assumption made in the passage above?
(A) A Socialist party government in Ganelon is more likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.
(B) The people of the United States recognize their nation’s interest in the political stability of West Africa.
(C) A weakening of U.S. political ties with Ganelon could have serious consequences for U.S. relations with other African nations.
(D) The Socialist party leaders in Ganelon believe that their nation’s interests would best be served by an alliance with anti-American forces.
(E) The Socialist party will win the upcoming election in Ganelon

A & D are very close but I would go with A because I feel D is too strong a statement and there is no mention of American forces in the para

This is one of the slippery slope Questions and D seems to be right only because A is almost stated in the Question.

A says

A Socialist party government in Ganelon is more likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.

Stem says

Ganelon presently has strong political and military ties to the United States. However, the Socialist party is widely expected to win the election, leading to fears that Ganelon will soon break away from the pro-American bloc and adopt a nonaligned or openly anti-American stance.

So the stem is saying, Some one (non Soc) is in power and Soc will come to power and anti American stance will begin. Do we need any more bananas?? Its is impossible to have the Soc in power now, have good ties now and then those ties becoming anti American after the new election. Even if it were to happen, it some what leads to D that the internal changes in the Soc party think that joining hands with anti american stance is good for their country.

The Q makes a jump from election wining to the stance of the government

D has its own set of issues with the strong language atypical of the GMAT Q's.

I tried to do the negation test. Both seem to invalidate the conclusion that G will be a grave concern to DOS but it tilted a bit in favor of A and here is why

If Soc are not likely to oppose the US than non Soc, it is not of grave concern.

If Soc leaders do not believe that joining hands with anti American forces is not beneficial, then it is not a grave concern as well. How ever, this doesnt cover the third state of breaking away and sitting on the wall. Whether it is a concern or not, it depends but it definitely not a grave one as G does not oppose US.

OA & OE please?

Nation's interest? Alliance? Thinking these are assumptions is too much of a stretch as these items are not even discussed nor can be considered assumptions. Agree with A. Keep in mind sometimes assumption questions will be extremely easy. Don't think that it can't be A because it's too obvious.

IMO A !!.

D says they believe that nations interest is best served....

Nations interest is too far to infer.

A too
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I think A shld be the answer.
In D, alliance with anti-american forces is mentioned. But who knows there will be an alliance or not. it is too extreme to be an assumption.

Actually, I could use the same logic that you used to say that the word 'likely' indicates uncertainty - likely, not likely,- who knows what will happen. I think it is D because I see more factual info there - '...leaders...believe...'.

I think OA would be nice at this point.

OA PLEASE.

OA is A......
This is a question from 1000 CR .... I checked out and found the OA to be A