Tony: I play the Big Bucks lottery - that is thee one where you pick five numbers and all the players who have picked five numbers drawn at the end of the week share the money pot. But it's best to play only after there have been a few weeks with no winnders, because the money pot increases each week that there is no winner.

Baggs: No, you are more likely to win the lottery when the money pot is small, because that's when the fewest other people are playing.

Which one of the following most accurately describes a mistake in the reasoning of one of the two players?

A. Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the number of times that person plays.

B. Baggs holds that the chances of tony's winning are affected by the number of other people playing.

C. Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the size of the pot.

D. Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning in a given week are unaffected by whether anyone has won the week before.

E. Tony holds that the chances of there being a winner go up if no one has won the lottery for quite a while.

I am confusing about such problems, I don't knwo where I should start to think about since there is no conclusion in this problem. How can I find the flaw in this argument? I chose A.

Thanks.

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Yvonne Hao