unconventional look at super high gmat in admissions?

The Kellogg math was as follows from gmat-scores-yield-and-selectivity-for-kellogg-34770.html?highlight=kellogg+math

Total Applicants 4449 (provided in the document)
Total Enrolled 652 (provided in the document)
Enrollment rate 14.7% (calculated 652 / 4449 --- not an accept rate, but an enrollment rate)

Of applicants who scored 640 or less, 9% enrolled, and they made up 20% of the applicants. Of those who scored, 650 to 690, 25% enrolled, of the total applicants they made up 28%. For 700-740, 49% enrolled, 41% of total apps had this score. Same kind of stuff for 750-800.

Based on the total applicants # (4449), and the total applicants %'s we can back into the number of applicants per score group.

< 640: 890 applicants
650-690: 1246 applicants
700-740: 1824 applicants
750-800: 489 applicants

(cut out a bunch of boring stuff here)

Then, if there are 652 enrolled (total), and those who got a 640 make up 9%, then we'd expect 59 students from the < 640 group enrolled. Knowing kellogs YIELD (NOT selectivity) hovers around 57%, that means that we would expect for those under 640, that 103 offers were made, and 59 attended.

Do the same for the others:

640: 103 accepts
650-690: 286 accepts
700-740: 560 accepts
750-800: 183 accepts

Total accepts ~ 1132

So now we know this...

Out of the 890 applicants who applied with less than 640, 103 got accepted. Hence, if you fall into this bucket, your odds of acceptance are 11%.

Do this for the other numbers:

640: 103/890 = 12%
650-690: 286/1246 = 23%
700-740: 560/1824 = 31%
750-800: 183/489 = 37%

Voila!

Anticipated accept odds by gmat level!

Whadda ya think? Math geeks? Am I nuts?

Now here's something even more interest....

So lets take this a step further.

Lets take two candidates:

Candidate A, 620 GMAT score, gets accepted to Kellogg
Candidate B, 780 GMAT score, gets accepted to Kellogg

Now, imagine 100 candidate A's, and 100 candidate B's.

Odds are, candidate A will have less schools to pick from, and is more likely to accept Kellogg. Candidate B, on the other hand, has far more schools to pick from (in all likelihood), and may or may not choose kellogg.

So, the yields, logic dictates, should differ from band to band. What this means is, the numbers will diverge.

Another way to look at it: Lets say I want 10 students with a 640, and 10 with a 780. To get 10 students with a 640, I may only need to make 15 offers. To get 10 students with a 780, I may need to make 20 offers.

So now we have to estimate yield by gmat. Virtually impossible to do admittedly, so lets try and estimate intelligently.

We know KGSM has 4449 applicants, and has 652 enrolled. This means, that roughly speaking, they would need to make 1144 offers. (based on the average yield of 57%)..

So, and I admit this is pure speculation.....

640 yield: 66%
650-690 yield: 60%
700-740 yield: 55%
750-800 yeild: 51%

Would give you:

640: 89 offers
650-690: 272 offers
700-740: 580 offers
750-800: 205 offers

This is 1146 offers, 2 offers more than the expected 1144 (to get that 57% overall yield).

Now, based on this, we can recalculate the percentages.

640: 10%
650-690: 22%
700-740: 32%
750-800: 42%

Interesting no? Obviously, the numbers depend greatly on the yield percentages you choose, so for this next exercise, lets go back to assuming that no matter your gmat score, the odds of you picking Kellogg remain 57%.

That gives us what we had before - 1132 offers, 12% odds, 23%, 31%, and 37% respectively.

Extrapolating this, and taking the midpoint of each range as our defined % , taking a linear approach to it as well, we get:

640 12%
650 17%
660 20%
670 23%
680 25%
690 26%
700 28%
710 29%
720 31%
730 32%
740 33%
750 35%
760 36%
770 37%
780 ?
790 ?
800 ?

To get to the 780, 790, 800 ranges, we can estimate - looks like the 40% would cross at about 790.

This is by no means scientific, but its interesting.

Based on all this fun stuff, I think that AT WORST, your odds are in the table above. If you buy my premise that yield will vary based on score,

640: 10%
650-690: 22%
700-740: 32%
750-800: 42%

and maybe even higher.