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I saw that yesterday. I think that most people's jobs will stay unless they are joining particularly troubled banks/groups. Bonuses are sure to go down across the board. Future bankers will have to make the decision on whether the 80 hour work weeks are worth it for only a slight premium to other post-MBA careers in their initial years until the economy turns around.
As far as I can tell, only Bear (among banks) is not honoring summer offers. Of course, Bear isn't in control of their own boat any more and and isn't going to be around to honor offers, so that is no surprise. The other thing to note is that even in the fall Bear (along with Citi) was in a bad position - meltdowns of Bear controlled hedge funds signaled coming problems - and Bear was among the least popular destinations for people interested in banking.
I think the most concerning problem is that if things continue to suck through the summer, it might be really difficult secure a full-time offer. This might lead to more people looking for jobs as 2Ys when schools starts back up in the fall. I think it could be difficult to land full-time offers next fall.
The other big issue is that firms have been laying off 1st and 2nd year associates. That really sucks. The silver lining is that the pain we're feeling now could lead to spectacular growth (and money and opportunities) when we actually hit the full-time job market. Those of us that are 1Ys now will be graduating next summer, and after relocation and training and such, be contributing employees at the start of 2010. If we're in the midst of a recession right now, things should be heating up by then. Looking back, 2002-2003 was an excellent time to be entering the job market - at least for those who survived the downturn with jobs.
The gist of that article seems to be that in a down economy (especially one like this one where financials have been hit hard) fewer people go into investment banking, and as a result lifetime salaries wind up being much lower. I think the most relevant point raised is that even after the economy turns around, it's difficult for students who enter the workforce during a down economy to switch jobs. I think this is something we sensed this past fall - in fact I had a conversation with a recruiter who agreed that most people (at least those interested in banking) will be pretty much locked into their summer firms because there likely won't be much 2Y hiring next year. I'd also agree with the article that when the economy recovers at some point down the road it will be really difficult for people who took jobs in other industries to switch into the industry.
I also agree that the guy in the photo looks a lot older than 25..
I totally agree that trying to get a full-time offer this fall will be difficult. I graduated undergrad in 03 and for my class (and 01 and 02) banks for the most part were only making full time offers to their intern classes. The most irritating part about this is that they would still come to job fairs to "maintain their relationships with schools." I mean we knew they weren't really recruiting for interns in September....
The same thing happened to me for tech recruiting. I graduated in March of '03, and no one was actually hiring, although they would all come to the job fairs. They didn't even accept resumes most of the time.
conversely '03 was boom time in the UK for tech. 01/02 was bad, contract rates fell from around $150USD per hour to $100USD and demand was low. Some people who were contracting failed to land a contract for 2 years.