When people predict that certain result will not take place : GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR)
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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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29 Jan 2006, 16:32
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
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29 Jan 2006, 17:34
I am going with (D) on this one. Here's my train of thought:

People predict an action must be taken in order for a result to take place. When the result occurs after the action, they assume their prediction is correct (that it was casued by the action). The claim is that the result that takes place is not necessarily relatable to the action taken and is open to interpretation.

If I'm reading this correctly, then (D) is the only statement that supports the above claim, since it's saying that it is difficult or "often impossible" to determine the difference between a correct prediction / effective action and an incorrect prediction / ineffective action. As a result, what caused the result is open to interpretation, like the initial claim states.

Any thoughts?

My FA is (D).
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29 Jan 2006, 17:34
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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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