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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]
 18 Sep 2006, 07:59
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
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Director
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E.
argument says that result may have many interpretations. So context can help one predict accurately.
I also used POE.
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sounds very tough.
but i will choose B.
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B is the answer.
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ak_idc wrote: B is the answer.
Is B the OA?
If not, dude, better don't post it as if yours were the OA. 
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Between C and D, I'll go for D even though its a little extreme...
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E for me ...but this is a tricky one. I have never seen a question like this before. What is the source and OA/OE please?
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The OA is D 
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can you please OE...
or can someone explain why it can be D.
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Re: 1000CR - Predicting the results. [#permalink]
19 Sep 2006, 19:54
punnu_mba wrote: When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
In the argument, it is said that predictions are not so useful as they often have more than one interpretation. That means they are not definite.
D says the same thing. It is impossible to distinguish a correct prediction from an incorrect one. Is nt D supporting the above argument?
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First of all, wohooo! I'm finally improving on CRs 
This is basically an inference CR.
Premise: When people say that if A(action) happens B(result) will happen and A(action) and B(result) end up happening, they think they made a sucessfull prediction.
Premise2: But B(result) has more than one interpretation. Thats means C(another action) hapenning could cause B to happen.
In short: We cannot say the prediction was good or bad because the result has been caused by some other action also.
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. - we are not concerned with sucess of an action, we are concerned with sucess of a prediction. WRONG
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. - We don't judge which action to take AFTER a prediction. Its the other way around, when we state that an action causes a result, we are making a prediction. WRONG
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. - CLOSE. I didn't like the predicitve strategy part of this. We have to stay focussed on prediction.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. - RIGHT. Since results cannot be attributed to a particlar action, you cannot differenciate between a correct/incorrect prediction.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction. - Context of prediction?? Out of scope. WRONG
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kripalkavi, very good interpretation!
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