When people predict that certain result will not take place : GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR)
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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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Manager
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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12 Mar 2007, 15:53
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
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Manager
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Re: CR - prediction and action [#permalink]

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12 Mar 2007, 16:25
amd08 wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Is it (B) ?
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12 Mar 2007, 16:35
not B. I have the answer but no explanation from a question set. Will post it though after few more replies. Pls. explain the reason behind your answer
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12 Mar 2007, 19:04
I guess the answer is E

My explanation

A not a choice due to the fact that it speaks about success and not prediction - so irrelavant

B not a choice as the whole conversation is about not being able to predict even after a successful result. i would like to keep it as my second best just in case

C not a choice due to the fact that they are talking of some successful iterations and this by no means could help us conclude successfully. I should say I am trying to satisfy myself here in this case to say C is not a choice. I would say 3rd best choice

D totally irrelavant

Now for the best part - WHY E

It is speaking about the context of the prediction so that he can decisively say that the prediction is the only option.

What do you say ?????? Am I right
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Re: CR - prediction and action [#permalink]

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12 Mar 2007, 19:14
amd08 wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.

Not necessarily.

(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

Not necessarily.

(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.

Not necessarily.

(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.

Out of scope. The argument does not say much about effective action.

(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Left with E.
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12 Mar 2007, 19:53
Wow! This one is confusing! I somehow was debating between E and C. Could be wrong!
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13 Mar 2007, 07:44
Lets look at this one carefully..

We are looking to support the claim that correct predictions are often correct not because of a correct prediction, but chance.

B.Judging an action...outside of the scope
C. Learning about strategy???? also irrelevant
D Distinguishing between a correct prediction, and a prediction which comes about through chance is impossible....I like this one
E. Something about knowing facts when making predictions...does not support the argument.

We are left with D in my opinion...
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13 Mar 2007, 09:16
this is tough,

I thought B

but now after reviewing the OA I see why D is correct.

If B said "more than one action " as opposed to interpretation I would agree B would be correct.

However D is right because if there are multiple interpretations for the same event then figuring out which prediction caused an action would be impossible
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13 Mar 2007, 09:46
Agree D.
13 Mar 2007, 09:46
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