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Which of the following most logically completes the

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Re: ******OG Verbal Review - Question 65 ******** [#permalink] New post 11 Dec 2012, 23:32
Marcab wrote:

Okay.
If I say that 1 million cars that run on electricity have been bought by Utranians, then wouldn't this fact prove that it is premature to conclude that the rapid developemtn of new fields will result in higher oil exports. IMO its yes.
Also there is a difference between proportion and number. What if a huge number of Utranians migrated to some other country when the economic condition of Utranian was not that good.



I don't think you have understood the argument well - B says inorder to gain economic improvement ppl will have to buy automobiles. when ppl buy automobiles there is income generated and this income is used for economic prosperity. Also note the argument is talking about EXPORTS it doesn't mention that its going to supply locally.

Marcab wrote:
Moreover can you please explain "now there is a second situation here,what happens if there isn't an increase in proportion of automobiles, then there isn't any economic improvement and then there won't be any improvement in development of new fields".
Please explain how did you conclude the above shaded portion.


I took the opposite case of B - the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proprtion of Utranians who own automobiles.

if they don't buy automobiles then there isn't any improvement.

This is from the passage

Utrania's currently improving economic situation, together with less-restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields.

so basically there are 2 situations which are needs for rapid development
1) improving economic situation
2) less restrictive regulations.

none of the answer choices mention restrictive regulations so we consider option 1 and this is present in choice B

Also regarding D - new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted.

Here is my question to you? would you try to recover oil from a dried up oil field this process is expensive (low chances of getting oil, lots of risk) you might not get any oil if you do this.
Their best option is to look for new fields they have better chances of getting oil. D doesn't do anything to the argument in my opinion.

PS: this is an official question, there won't be any ambiguity here.
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Re: ******OG Verbal Review - Question 65 ******** [#permalink] New post 11 Dec 2012, 23:45
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nelz007 wrote:
I don't think you have understood the argument well - B says inorder to gain economic improvement ppl will have to buy automobiles. when ppl buy automobiles there is income generated and this income is used for economic prosperity. Also note the argument is talking about EXPORTS it doesn't mention that its going to supply locally.

Are you serious?
Does B-"the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proprtion of Utranians who own automobiles" implies that?
"The improvement in the economic situtation may result in the increase in the PROPORTION of Utranians who own automobiles". Where does it means that "in order to gain economic improvement, people will have to buy automobiles".
You have clearly assumed a lot.

Here is my question to you? would you try to recover oil from a dried up oil field this process is expensive (low chances of getting oil, lots of risk) you might not get any oil if you do this.
Nowhere its mentioned that recovering oil from a dried up oil field is an expensive process.
The only thing that D states is that a new technology is available to recover oil from oil fields that were earlier regarded as depleted.
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Re: ******OG Verbal Review - Question 65 ******** [#permalink] New post 11 Dec 2012, 23:46
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Re: ******OG Verbal Review - Question 65 ******** [#permalink] New post 12 Dec 2012, 00:14
what does depleted mean? doesn't it mean its used up source, potentially dried up. I am just going by the meaning of the word.


What I trying to say was expensive is in terms of (potential) return on investment. Both processes are expensive whether you try to find oil in a new / depleted oil field. what are the chances of getting oil makes one process better than the other.

the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranians who own automobiles.

There is a keyword MAY over here which is why I assumed 2 situation - this is a pretty str8 forward question its a clear B

proportion of Utranians - I know this doesn't mean number it clearly means in this context it means relation / ratio to the number of people.

Utrania's currently improving economic situation, together with less-restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because

The above statement is what we have to support for


A. the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years.
B. the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proprtion of Utranians who own automobiles.
C. most of the investment in new oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources
D. new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted.
E. many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter.

D is totally irrelevant B,C and E are the ones we are concerned with. out of those 3 options B is best choice.
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Re: Utrania was formerly [#permalink] New post 12 Dec 2012, 04:20
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Hii karishma.
Restating the argument: "it would be premature to conclude that the rapid developemtn of new fields will result in higher oil exports".
Two things are possible
1) there is an alternate way,apart from new fields, through which export can be increased.
2) there is no increase in exports at all.
Both the above options create a doubt that rapid development of new fields lead to higher exports.

Now D creates an alternate source(point 1) without making an assumption, whereas again saying B makes another assumption. Ask yourself, do the cars only run on fuels?

Now someone please let me know how my solution is incorrect.
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Re: Utrania was formerly [#permalink] New post 12 Dec 2012, 19:29
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Marcab wrote:
Hii karishma.
Restating the argument: "it would be premature to conclude that the rapid developemtn of new fields will result in higher oil exports".
Two things are possible
1) there is an alternate way,apart from new fields, through which export can be increased.
2) there is no increase in exports at all.
Both the above options create a doubt that rapid development of new fields lead to higher exports.

Now D creates an alternate source(point 1) without making an assumption, whereas again saying B makes another assumption. Ask yourself, do the cars only run on fuels?

Now someone please let me know how my solution is incorrect.


You need to analyze the argument properly.

Argument: Utrania was a major exporter of oil. Some yrs back, exports dropped because investments in new fields were inhibited and old fields became depleted. Now, new fields will be developed. Still, rapid development of new fields may not result in higher exports because ....

All you are interested in is why development of new fields may not lead to increase in exports. The point is not what may lead to increase in exports. The point is why exports may not increase even though new fields will be developed. Where will the oil from the new fields go? Ofcourse, domestic consumption.

Also, there is no assumption here. Most automobiles run on fuel today. If there is a dramatic increase in the number of automobiles, a big chunk is bound to run on fuel.

It's a simple question. Treat it as such.
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 10 Jan 2013, 10:20
I agree with Marcab, there is a slight assumption here that automobiles run on fuel. But B is the best ans and not D because we cannot conclude that new technology to extract oil from depleted resources will increase the export.
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 11 Jan 2013, 13:08
Karishma is right, the key word here is EXPORT. Great internal consumption of oil products makes export forecast uncertain. B is clear
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 27 Jan 2013, 00:15
Weakeners make assumptions

Now, regarding your other query that option B makes some assumptions. Again, a good point.

The idea is that almost all weakeners make some assumptions. There are not many weakeners, if you look at OG, which would conclusively disprove the conclusion just by their own. And in this question, we are looking for a weakener only.

Hope this helps :)

thank you e gmat for deep analysis.

I do not understand the above idea. Pls cite the og questions in which weakeners disprove the conclusion and in which weakener only weaken the conclusion. pls, cite only one question for each case. thank you very much.
I understand that if information shatters an assumption, it disproves the conclusion. if information increases doubt in an assumption, it increase doubt in the conclusion. The first is the destroyer, the second the weakner. both destroyer and weakner are correct answer for weakening question.

is my thinking correct?
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 27 Jan 2013, 00:23
second point, so I post second time

above argument is proposal passage. if we do X, Y happen. assumption for this passage is that there is no bad agent. weakner is that there is some bad agent which prevent the happening of Y.

be armed with above thinking before going to answer choices for analysis.

now, among answer choices, B match our prethinking.

choose B.

pls, comment my above process. is it right? Thank you .
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 27 Jan 2013, 23:42
Thank you e gmat expert.

pls continue this discussion which is about the behavior of weakener, and, so which is important.

in the first og question, oa D requires an assumption to increase the doubt on the conclusion

in the second og question, oa A dose not requires any assumption to increase the doubt on the conclusion

that is the difference I get from you. Thank you very much.

another question

can you give me an og question, in which the weakener truely shatter the conclusion ? pls,

in the above second og question, oa A dose not shatter. oa A only cast doubt on the conlusion.

Thank you
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 27 Jan 2013, 23:54
dear e gmat expert.

if in the second og , oa A is changed to
cost of processing of raw cotton increases much more than the price of raw cotton reduces

we have a situation in which a weakener truely shatter the conclusion.

but could you pls cite an og question which presents this case of shattering?

thank you e gmat experts.
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 28 Jan 2013, 00:25
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thangvietnam wrote:
Thank you e gmat expert.

pls continue this discussion which is about the behavior of weakener, and, so which is important.

in the first og question, oa D requires an assumption to increase the doubt on the conclusion

in the second og question, oa A dose not requires any assumption to increase the doubt on the conclusion

that is the difference I get from you. Thank you very much.

another question

can you give me an og question, in which the weakener truely shatter the conclusion ? pls,

in the above second og question, oa A dose not shatter. oa A only cast doubt on the conlusion.

Thank you


Hi Thang,

In the second case, the weakener does shatter the conclusion. The conclusion was "retail price of cotton will inevitably fall". Now, if the weakener is inserted, we cannot be sure if the price will fall.

Now, we cannot say that retail price will inevitably fall. The conclusion is not only weakened, it doesn't hold true. It is not inevitable anymore.

Hope I am making sense.

Thanks :)
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 28 Jan 2013, 20:21
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thangvietnam wrote:

I do not understand the above idea. Pls cite the og questions in which weakeners disprove the conclusion and in which weakener only weaken the conclusion. pls, cite only one question for each case. thank you very much.
I understand that if information shatters an assumption, it disproves the conclusion. if information increases doubt in an assumption, it increase doubt in the conclusion. The first is the destroyer, the second the weakner. both destroyer and weakner are correct answer for weakening question.

is my thinking correct?


In CR questions we deal with real world scenarios. New information will either strengthen or weaken or do nothing to the conclusion. It is very very difficult for the new info to establish something without a doubt because then the new info will need to consider all possible cases. There will always be some assumptions. The new info will change the degree of confidence in our conclusion. It will not establish or refute our conclusion without any doubt.

Let me explain using an example:

Your argument: Mr X was found on the crime scene (I have been watching too much Fox Crime lately!) with a gun in his hand, blood on his clothes and victim on the floor. Mr X must be the killer (your conclusion).

I want to weaken your argument: Mr X was trying to coerce the gun out of the killer's hand. He is not the killer.
(I have successfully cast doubt on your conclusion but there are assumptions here. You can still get back. )

Your argument: But we can say without a doubt that there was no other person in that room during that time. (perhaps there is a single exit/entry point and it was guarded) Now you have strengthened your case and weakened mine but still there are assumptions.

My argument: The victim was trying to kill himself and Mr X was trying to stop him. The victim succeeded in committing suicide. Mr X is innocent.
Now I have weakened your case and strengthened mine.

We can keep at it for a long time and every new piece of info can strengthen/weaken the argument. Every new piece of info does come with assumptions. That is why, criminals are punished when their crime is established without REASONABLE doubt.

Basically, it will be very very difficult to disprove a conclusion. You can generally just weaken it.
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 13 Apr 2013, 15:07
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Strengthen
Conclusion: The development of new oil fields WILL NOT result in higher oil exports.
Premise: Though economic situation improving and regulations are less strict.

Had C: Foreign source gives oil to Utrania, so it does not make sense for Utrania to export oil resulting in higher oil exports.
Not C: Foreigners investment in Utrania's new oil fields is good for its development and helps Utrania's oil exports resulting in higher oil exports.
It's B: Utrania's improved economic situation caused its people to use more of its oil and it is very likely that there will be LESS oil exports.
Not A: The stable price of oil will still result in higher oil exports.
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Re: Which of the following most logically completes the [#permalink] New post 07 May 2014, 19:26
mohnish104 wrote:
The OA is B guys.... Its a straight B. I can see no other answer fitting the bill.


Well said. We should not argue with the OA, because it will always be the OA.
Re: Which of the following most logically completes the   [#permalink] 07 May 2014, 19:26
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