For full-time positions they can definitely tell if people were initially focused on banking rather than consulting. Still, the consulting firms know that many people get involved with banking recruiting as first year students because the banks come first, and it's pretty much impossible to go after both banking and consulting because of how much time recruiting takes up.
I actually believe that firms have the opposite view from what highhopes suggested. They would rather get a superstar transferring from banking rather than a bench warmer who went to a lesser consulting firm over the summer. Consulting firms are actively targeting people who had banking jobs over the summer. I've been contacted directly (meaning outside the course of normal recruiting) by each of the big three and several others; and I know people who were with Goldman (only gave offers to about 25% of summers), Lehman, Morgan (offers might start evaporating soon) are all getting lots of love these days.
To take Rhyme's hypothetical, would one of the big three prefer someone who summered with Goldman Sachs or Booz? Well, let's see, the person who went to Goldman beat out a bunch of other folks to make it to the top of the heap. The person who went to Booz almost certainly didn't make it into any of the big 3. Based on first year recruiting, one of these people is among the elite at their school (a true statement for pretty much any school); while the other is middle of the pack. Which one would BCG or McKinsey rather hire? Take a look at some of the recruiting guides out there and you'll see that the top consulting firms consider the bulge bracket banks (maybe I should say considered RIP) to be their primary competition.
Another interesting tidbit to gnaw on. I've been told directly by BCG and McKinsey that that their yields from their summer class were way above normal levels (not a surprise). Both firms also said that they were keeping hiring levels steady from last year (BCG said they might increase). But if you add it all up, the constant hiring levels, the higher yield from the summer, and the the flood of job seekers from banking mean that the consulting job hunt will be brutal this year. Might be as tough this year to land a job at AT Kearney or Deloitte as it has been in past years to get to the Big 3.
A few more things to consider. The market meltdown of the past week has cause the banking job market to shrivel even further (from already raiseny levels). Earlier in the fall BW published an article quoting mid-market banks saying that they were going to take troubles at the big banks as an opportunity to land some talent they wouldn't otherwise be able to get. Here at Darden, 3 mid-market firms canceled in the past week, including at least one of which was quoted in the BW article. Strangely, T. Rowe Price canceled on-campus interviews due to lack of interest. I guess the economy and job hunt are not yet tough enough for people to consider living in Baltimore (someone's going to get their panties in a bunch over that one)
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An MD from the Carlyle group presented to my corporate finance class a couple of days ago and he said that his group of 80 people had completed a total of one deal so far this year. Private equity has been totally dead, and of course hedge funds have been melting down in the market.