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# A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine

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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine [#permalink]

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07 Apr 2006, 15:16
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A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.
Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?

(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games.
(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication.
(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last yearâ€™s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated.
(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBCâ€™s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal

What is the flaw in the question? I sort of get it but that sounds far stretched as do we doubt everything while solving such questions.

Luckily i got it right after spending 3:30 mins
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Re: CR - percentages - try with a timer [#permalink]

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07 Apr 2006, 17:52
old_dream_1976 wrote:
A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.
Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?

(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games.

(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication.

(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last yearâ€™s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated.
(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBCâ€™s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal

What is the flaw in the question? I sort of get it but that sounds far stretched as do we doubt everything while solving such questions.

Luckily i got it right after spending 3:30 mins

I got it in 1.30 minutes.

Logic here is argument has refered some external sources to reach a conclusion which might be possible.
E does the same things
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Re: CR - percentages - try with a timer [#permalink]

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07 Apr 2006, 19:31
E is it. the passage is arguing that there is more than 95% chance that the letter coud have been written by male professor eventhough it is clearly mentioned that the writer Dr. Shirley Martin is a femal.

similarly in E, the passage is pleading that it is more than 95% chance the animal flying in the gurden could be mammal where as we know only birds can fly, not mammals.

i took my whole time only reading the passage and answers choices.
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08 Apr 2006, 23:29
One more for 'E'. Same reasoning with Professor's one. 98 secs.
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Re: CR - percentages - try with a timer [#permalink]

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09 Apr 2006, 18:22
Professor wrote:
E is it. the passage is arguing that there is more than 95% chance that the letter coud have been written by male professor eventhough it is clearly mentioned that the writer Dr. Shirley Martin is a femal.
similarly in E, the passage is pleading that it is more than 95% chance the animal flying in the gurden could be mammal where as we know only birds can fly, not mammals.

i took my whole time only reading the passage and answers choices.

Dr. Shirley Martin was never mentioned a woman in the passage. I think the correct answer choice is A. E adds another qualifier 'flying'.
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Re: CR - percentages - try with a timer [#permalink]

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09 Apr 2006, 20:33
vipin7um wrote:
Professor wrote:
E is it. the passage is arguing that there is more than 95% chance that the letter coud have been written by male professor eventhough it is clearly mentioned that the writer Dr. Shirley Martin is a femal.
similarly in E, the passage is pleading that it is more than 95% chance the animal flying in the gurden could be mammal where as we know only birds can fly, not mammals.

i took my whole time only reading the passage and answers choices.

Dr. Shirley Martin was never mentioned a woman in the passage. I think the correct answer choice is A. E adds another qualifier 'flying'.

OA is E.

Professor's reasoning is the most lucid however I would like to add that the flaw = similarity is

shirley is usually a woman's name
anything that flies is usually a bird
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Re: CR - percentages - try with a timer [#permalink]

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10 Apr 2006, 07:28
old_dream_1976 wrote:
vipin7um wrote:
Professor wrote:
E is it. the passage is arguing that there is more than 95% chance that the letter coud have been written by male professor eventhough it is clearly mentioned that the writer Dr. Shirley Martin is a femal.
similarly in E, the passage is pleading that it is more than 95% chance the animal flying in the gurden could be mammal where as we know only birds can fly, not mammals.

i took my whole time only reading the passage and answers choices.

Dr. Shirley Martin was never mentioned a woman in the passage. I think the correct answer choice is A. E adds another qualifier 'flying'.

OA is E.

Professor's reasoning is the most lucid however I would like to add that the flaw = similarity is

shirley is usually a woman's name
anything that flies is usually a bird

What is the source of this question?
Re: CR - percentages - try with a timer   [#permalink] 10 Apr 2006, 07:28
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