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A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s

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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jun 2016, 17:27
sa18 wrote:
What is wrong with D? Doesn't it provide an alternate explanatiion?


I'd like to second this.

Environmentalists: The spill will cause a decline in the population
Critic: This has been proven untrue

One way to weaken the claim that the spill had no effect certainly seems, to me at least, to be if you can provide an alternate explanation for why the environmentalists' claim could still be true despite the immediate evidence. No?

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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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goalsnr wrote:
A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker’s Beach, the world’s sole nesting ground for Merrick sea turtles, and prevented nearly all the eggs laid that year from hatching. Yet the number of adult female Merricks returning to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach has actually increased somewhat since five years ago. Clearly, environmentalists’ prediction that the world’s Merrick population would decline as a result of the spill has proven unfounded.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument offered in refutation of the environmentalists’ prediction?

A. The chemical spill five years ago occurred at a time when there were neither Merrick sea turtles nor Merrick sea turtle eggs on Baker’s Beach.
B. Female Merrick sea turtles begin returning to Baker’s Beach to lay their eggs when they are ten years old.
C. Under normal conditions, only a small proportion of hatchling female Merrick sea turtles survive in the ocean until adulthood and return to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach.
D. Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs.
E. After the chemical spill, an environmental group rejected a proposal to increase the Merrick sea turtle population by transferring eggs from Baker’s Beach to nearby beaches that had not been affected by the spill.


Author's Conclusion:- Environmentalist's prediction is unfounded.

Prediction of E's- turtle population will decline.

What we have to prove:- E's prediction is not unfounded. Or E is probably right in the prediction.

Looking at the argument, we see that there are few facts:-
-Oil spill occurred 5 years ago
-BB is the ONLY ground for MT
- Oil spill prevented nearly ALL eggs from hatching


Surprising fact:- MT still return to lay its eggs at the BB (She is not aware of the oil spill, it seems :P. The site is disastrous for the eggs)

But wait! Where are these turtles coming from? Nearly ALL eggs vanished 5 years ago and continue to prevent hatching eggs further.

The only reason could be that these females coming to lay their eggs here were born before oil spill. They will lay the eggs, which in turn will be vanished by oil, leading to decreased turtle population and supporting E's prediction.

Few Possible strengtheners-
1) The Turtles, along with eggs, coming to lay its eggs will severely be affected by the oil in the water.
2) The conditions at the base of sea has not improved since past 5 years and nearly ALL eggs will continue to vanish.


A. The chemical spill five years ago occurred at a time when there were neither Merrick sea turtles nor Merrick sea turtle eggs on Baker’s Beach. This is just a piece of information , but it doesn't tell us what will be the effect on number of turtles in future. Also, it is mentioned in the argument that there were eggs (only then they can vanish). It seems a false information.

B. Female Merrick sea turtles begin returning to Baker’s Beach to lay their eggs when they are ten years old. This is what one possible answer. These turtles will eventually die at certain old age and the eggs will anyway be vanished.

C. Under normal conditions, only a small proportion of hatchling female Merrick sea turtles survive in the ocean until adulthood and return to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach. We are talking about abnormal conditions in the argument.

D. Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs. It makes us believe that if predator has declined , MT should increase. But it doesn't tell us the other way.

E. After the chemical spill, an environmental group rejected a proposal to increase the Merrick sea turtle population by transferring eggs from Baker’s Beach to nearby beaches that had not been affected by the spill. This is out of scope. Rejection doesn't mean that population will decline while their is increase in number of females going to the beach to lay eggs.
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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 13 Oct 2016, 05:23
DensetsuNo Can you share your opinion on the correct answer to this question.

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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 20 Jun 2017, 23:32
A. Contradicts the premises. - Eliminate
B. Correct.
C. Out of scope. - Eliminate
D. Alternate cause, no tie to the conclusion. - Eliminate
E. Out of scope. - Eliminate

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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 03 Oct 2017, 07:56
I can't still understand why D is wrong!
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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 03 Oct 2017, 09:18
A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker’s Beach, the world’s sole nesting ground for Merrick sea turtles, and prevented nearly all the eggs laid that year from hatching. Yet the number of adult female Merricks returning to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach has actually increased somewhat since five years ago. Clearly, environmentalists’ prediction that the world’s Merrick population would decline as a result of the spill has proven unfounded.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument offered in refutation of the environmentalists’ prediction?

A. The chemical spill five years ago occurred at a time when there were neither Merrick sea turtles nor Merrick sea turtle eggs on Baker’s Beach.
B. Female Merrick sea turtles begin returning to Baker’s Beach to lay their eggs when they are ten years old.
Correct ; Since sea turtles come when they are 10 year old , the ill effects of chemical spill will be visible after 10 years.
C. Under normal conditions, only a small proportion of hatchling female Merrick sea turtles survive in the ocean until adulthood and return to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach.
D. Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs.
Highlighted part is the issue here. decline of 'one of the several species' will not have significant overall effect. ; incorrect

E. After the chemical spill, an environmental group rejected a proposal to increase the Merrick sea turtle population by transferring eggs from Baker’s Beach to nearby beaches that had not been affected by the spill.

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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 03 Oct 2017, 19:50
rishabhdxt wrote:
D. Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs.
Highlighted part is the issue here. decline of 'one of the several species' will not have significant overall effect. ; incorrect




rishabhdxt Thanks for the reply.

How can we say that it won't have a significant effect? Maybe this specie is the largest of the group and other specie population is almost negligible in comparison to this specie! We don't have enough data to prove any of this. Am I assuming too much? If there was no option B, would u have chosen this option?
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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 27 Nov 2017, 07:12
It's a sweet one! Check out Relationships in the argument.
IMO: Data Flaw Type
Conclusion: Environment's prediction is unproven.
Based on Premise: Some data -namely, increasing number of Merricks.
Weakener: What if the data is not representative? correct AC: Show that cited sample is from another data set (i.e. different Time Frame)

A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker’s Beach, the world’s sole nesting ground for Merrick sea turtles, and prevented nearly all the eggs laid that year from hatching. Yet the number of adult female Merricks returning to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach has actually increased somewhat since five years ago. Clearly, environmentalists’ prediction that the world’s Merrick population would decline as a result of the spill has proven unfounded.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the argument offered in refutation of the environmentalists’ prediction?

A. The chemical spill five years ago occurred at a time when there were neither Merrick sea turtles nor Merrick sea turtle eggs on Baker’s Beach. Opposite - if this was true, the prediction would be false, and the author's conclusion would be true.
B. Female Merrick sea turtles begin returning to Baker’s Beach to lay their eggs when they are ten years old. Correct: This answer shows that the data sample (returning Merricks) are from a data set, that is actually not affected by the spill. So the author cannot base his conclusion on a different set of Merricks that have not been affected by the spill. Conclusion is has been weakened.
C. Under normal conditions, only a small proportion of hatchling female Merrick sea turtles survive in the ocean until adulthood and return to lay their eggs at Baker’s Beach. Irrelevant - Prediction could still be true
D. Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs. Out of scope - this AC clearly states that these pressure are UNRELATED TO THE CHEMICAL Spill, whereas the Predictions are based on the results of the spill (stated in the stimulus). So any other stuff unrelated to the spill is irrelevant.
E. After the chemical spill, an environmental group rejected a proposal to increase the Merrick sea turtle population by transferring eggs from Baker’s Beach to nearby beaches that had not been affected by the spill - Clearly, irrelevant. If this answer choice had some effect, it would rather strengthen the author's conclusion, because if a group rejected to transfer eggs from the affected beach to a non-affected beach, one could assume that the spill had not have such a big effect, and thus the environmentalists' prediction are unfounded.

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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s [#permalink]

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New post 27 Nov 2017, 18:27
I see how B works, but I'm still a little confused on D.

"Environmental pressures unrelated to the chemical spill have caused a significant decline in the population of one of the several species of sea birds that prey on Merrick sea turtle eggs."

If the species of sea birds that eat turtle eggs has taken a hit, this would mean, that more turtle eggs are given a chance to hatch causing an increase in the population of female turtles, which in turn, would return to the beach to lay their eggs.

Does't this provide an alternate explanation as to why there is an increase in the no. of turtles returning to lay eggs?

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Re: A major chemical spill occurred five years ago at Baker s   [#permalink] 27 Nov 2017, 18:27

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