mallya12Advertising Executive: More than 10 million American households now own digital video recorders which can fast-forward over television commercials; approximately 75% of these households fast-forward over at least one commercial per 30-minute program. Television commercials are now much less cost-effective as they are not as widely watched as they used to be.
Premise : more than 10 M =own recorder= the machine can FF TC's.
Premise : a great % of 10 M FF atleast 1 commercial
based in this executive's claim : TC's not as widely used as before (Note : This is the reason provided by exective for his conclusion. This reason may or may not be a fact)
Conclusion: TC's much less cost effective
Rephrase of Conclusion : TC's are now no more effective compared to beforeNOTE : The subtle compariosn between PRESENT AND PAST is crucial here !!! We have a comapriosn in conclusion.
Think : Let's try to find scenarios where TC's are not less efffective OR are equally or more effective
1. The exective provides us data aout households with Recorders and tells us that this number is huge.. BUT what if the number of households which won a tv without such recorder increased SIGNIFICANTLY, then would the Tc's be less effective??? Becasue we can use the reverse reasoning as : if househilds without recordrs increased then the cumulative viewers of commericials may also increase right?? as long as MORE AND MORE ppl are watching it now the TC's are effective right??
Assumption 1 : The number of households with a TV without a recorder has not increased significantly such that the cumulative viewership increases !!2. Even if the ppl skip 1 commericial per 30 min program !! what if the the total time spent in watching TV increases compared to past ?? so for example total programs watched before were 10 (each 30 min program) and now the programs watched are 30 (each 30 min ) then the effective commercials viewed MAY BE same.. See we do not have to prove anything, we only have to create a DOUBT
Assumption : The total time watched by peeps with recorder has not increased significantly to offset th loss in commercialas viewed !!3. "as they (commericals) are not as widely watched as they(commercials) used to be."
very important point. Lets directly attack the exec's reason provided. On the basis of the data for peep with recorder he draws an inference and makes it the basis for his conclusin. Now what if the commercials wer actually less viewed in the PAST TOO?? as long as we are in the scope f arguemnt we can contend that the commercials watched may be even less... the reason may be any for not watching comms . And what if in fact the comms watched are actually increasing?? We are comparing PAST and PRESENT right? what if comms watched was less from beginning ?? then how would the TC's be LESS EFECTIVE?? they might be same right?
Assumprion 3 : Peeps actually wateched the comms beifore !!always write the conclusion and view it withe evry answer (tip for eliminating Out of scope choices)
Conclusion : TC's are less effective NOW (comparison)To strengthen : just try to support the assumption !!
Which of the following, if true, strengthens the claim made by the advertising executive?
(A) Product placement within television programs is a viable alternative to traditional television commercials
- Productplacement - OUT OF SCOPE
(B) The television programs preferred by consumers without digital video recorders are similar to those preferred by consumers with the devices
- we are talking about PREFERENCE and not number of prhrams watched !!! even if the programs preferred are same with peeps with and ithout recorders the number of peeps with recorder who skip comms MAY STILL be significantly larger than peeps who dont skip comms. Preferemce dpes not help. Preferring something and actually doing it is very differet !!!
Quote:
(C) In the past, television viewers did not switch channels, leave the room, or otherwise avoid watching some commercials
- ASSumpion 3. "reason to skip maybe any: switch channels, leave room , etc" .
(D) The cost-effectiveness of television advertising is based less upon how many people watch a particular commercial and more upon the appropriateness of the demographic.
- demographic - OUT OF SCOPE
(E) Due to an imperfect sampling system used to measure the number of viewers, many companies find it difficult to determine the return on investment for television commercials
- retrn on invertment - OUT OF SCOPE