All the companies in Balco City have decided to freeze salary

Official Explanation

The stimulus for a Parallel Reasoning question will usually be in the form of an argument. So let’s start by breaking up the argument into its components:

The Conclusion

Kevin will face a salary cut this year.

The Evidence

Companies in the city in which Kevin works have decided not to provide salary raises this year.

The Assumption

This is a classic example of the fallacy which states that there are only two extreme possibilities for every event, that is, if an event does not happen then its opposite will take place. But there can always be a third possibility that nothing, that is, no change happens. For example, in the above argument, if the salaries will not rise, then one can’t conclude that they will necessarily fall. They might remain at the same level.

So the assumption in the argument is that is salaries don’t increase then they will necessarily fall. To state it in more general terms, the assumption is that if X doesn’t happen then the opposite of X will happen.

Let’s try locating a similar flawed assumption in each of the options that are given to us:

(A) This is actually a very sound argument. If Jerry has not studied, he will most likely perform poorly in the upcoming college examination. So, there is no flaw in this argument.

(B) This option looks good because if Tom can’t reach before time, he does not necessarily have to reach late. He could also reach on time. However, the problem is the use of the word ‘might’ suggesting that this may or may not happen. The correct option will conclude that this will definitely happen.

(C) This option puts the conclusion before the evidence. It is in effect saying that since the temperature is not expected to rise, it may fall. The problem again is—like option B—the use of may. We require a stronger word such as must to parallel the conclusion of the original stimulus.

(D) The original argument assumes that if X does not happen then the opposite of X will happen whereas this option assumes that if X does not happen, then Y will also not happen. Sometimes it may help to think of arguments in terms of X and Y.

(E) The correct answer. This option again puts the conclusion at the beginning and states that since the prices of mobile phones are not expected to fall in the near future, the prices will go up instead. This is exactly the kind of flawed reasoning we are looking for. The use of the strong ‘will’ makes this the correct answer.