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# All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's

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All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's [#permalink]

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27 Nov 2012, 21:39
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All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's theory and Professor Heissmann's. However, the prediction that these theories make about the result of the planned experiment cannot both be true. Therefore, the result of this experiment will confurm one of these theories at the expense of the other.

The argument above exhibits an erroneous pattern of reasoning most similar to that exhibited by which one of the following?

(A) David and Jane both think they know how to distinguish beech trees from elms, but when they look at trees together they often disagree. Therefore, at leat one of the must have an erroneous method.

(B) Although David thinks the tree they saw was a beech, Jane thinks it was an elm. jane's description of the tree's freatures is consistant with her opinion, so this description must be inconsistent with David's view.

(C) David and Jane have been equally good at identifying trees so far. But David says this one is an elm, whereas jane is unsure. Therefore, if this tree turns out to be an elm, we'll know David is better.

(D) David thinks that there are more beeches that elms int he forest. Jane thinks he is wrong. The section of forest we examined was small, but examination of the whole forest would either confirm David's view or disprove it.

(E) David thinks this tree is a beech. Jane thinks it is an elm. Maria, unlike David or Jane, is expert at tree identification, so when Maria gives her opinon it will verify either David's or Jane's opinion.

OA, After some time..
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Re: All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's.. [#permalink]

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28 Nov 2012, 00:30
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Evidence--fit-->Theory. Prediction--future event-->both outcomes !true.
Conclusion: result confirms one at expense of other.

Red highlight is where the reasoning errors are. There are two reasoning errors in a small phrase here - that there is no other possibility other than two outcomes and that one possible outcome must be at the expense of the other.

(A) David and Jane both think they know how to distinguish beech trees from elms, but when they look at trees together they often disagree. Therefore, at least one of the must have an erroneous method. There is a causality of one outcome disproving another possible outcome, rather than a problem with the method. Incorrect.

(B) Although David thinks the tree they saw was a beech, Jane thinks it was an elm. jane's description of the tree's freatures is consistant with her opinion, so this description must be inconsistent with David's view. There must be an inconsistency between results (not description, which is subjective) such that the (objective) result disproves the other possible result. Incorrect.

(C) David and Jane have been equally good at identifying trees so far. But David says this one is an elm, whereas jane is unsure. Therefore, if this tree turns out to be an elm, we'll know David is better. David is better attaches a quality to the person. Not related to an objective outcome. Incorrect.

(D) David thinks that there are more beeches that elms int he forest. Jane thinks he is wrong. The section of forest we examined was small, but examination of the whole forest would either confirm David's view or disprove it. This actually is the opposite of what the question is asking and contains no reasoning error. Incorrect.

(E) David thinks this tree is a beech. Jane thinks it is an elm. Maria, unlike David or Jane, is expert at tree identification, so when Maria gives her opinon it will verify either David's or Jane's opinion. Maria's opinion will validate either David's or Jane's, i.e. one outcome would come at the expense of other. Objective result. Both reasoning errors present (both can't be wrong and one must come at the expense of other). Correct.

Parallel reasoning hard questions cook my goat. I appreciate the question. Thanks.
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Re: All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's.. [#permalink]

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28 Nov 2012, 00:51
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vomhorizon wrote:
All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's theory and Professor Heissmann's. However, the prediction that these theories make about the result of the planned experiment cannot both be true. Therefore, the result of this experiment will confurm one of these theories at the expense of the other.

The argument above exhibits an erroneous pattern of reasoning most similar to that exhibited by which one of the following?

(A) David and Jane both think they know how to distinguish beech trees from elms, but when they look at trees together they often disagree. Therefore, at leat one of the must have an erroneous method.

(B) Although David thinks the tree they saw was a beech, Jane thinks it was an elm. jane's description of the tree's freatures is consistant with her opinion, so this description must be inconsistent with David's view.

(C) David and Jane have been equally good at identifying trees so far. But David says this one is an elm, whereas jane is unsure. Therefore, if this tree turns out to be an elm, we'll know David is better.

(D) David thinks that there are more beeches that elms int he forest. Jane thinks he is wrong. The section of forest we examined was small, but examination of the whole forest would either confirm David's view or disprove it.

(E) David thinks this tree is a beech. Jane thinks it is an elm. Maria, unlike David or Jane, is expert at tree identification, so when Maria gives her opinon it will verify either David's or Jane's opinion.

OA, After some time..

Oh it was really tough for me...

IMO A...
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Re: All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's.. [#permalink]

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28 Nov 2012, 00:55
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vomhorizon wrote:
All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's theory and Professor Heissmann's. However, the prediction that these theories make about the result of the planned experiment cannot both be true. Therefore, the result of this experiment will confurm one of these theories at the expense of the other.

The argument above exhibits an erroneous pattern of reasoning most similar to that exhibited by which one of the following?

(A) David and Jane both think they know how to distinguish beech trees from elms, but when they look at trees together they often disagree. Therefore, at leat one of the must have an erroneous method.

(B) Although David thinks the tree they saw was a beech, Jane thinks it was an elm. jane's description of the tree's freatures is consistant with her opinion, so this description must be inconsistent with David's view.

(C) David and Jane have been equally good at identifying trees so far. But David says this one is an elm, whereas jane is unsure. Therefore, if this tree turns out to be an elm, we'll know David is better.

(D) David thinks that there are more beeches that elms int he forest. Jane thinks he is wrong. The section of forest we examined was small, but examination of the whole forest would either confirm David's view or disprove it.

(E) David thinks this tree is a beech. Jane thinks it is an elm. Maria, unlike David or Jane, is expert at tree identification, so when Maria gives her opinon it will verify either David's or Jane's opinion.

OA, After some time..

IMO E.. I agree with Zenverse's explanation.
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Re: All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's.. [#permalink]

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27 Nov 2012, 23:13
Tough one.. IMHO answer is D... Will explain if correct.

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Re: All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's.. [#permalink]

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28 Nov 2012, 02:05
I must say a real good Question ..

All my understanding leads to E ( hope the understanding is correct )

I will go with E....
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Re: All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's.. [#permalink]

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28 Nov 2012, 04:58
Zenverse's explanation is perfect.

Cheers
Re: All the evidence so far gathered fits both Dr. Grippen's..   [#permalink] 28 Nov 2012, 04:58
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