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# Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao

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Manager
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Concentration: Entrepreneurship, Sustainability
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Re: Weaken Revision: Because of a rare type of fungus that [#permalink]

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18 Feb 2015, 23:45
Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

Premise: meager harvest of cacao beans this year.
Assumption: Chocolate is made from same lot of cacao beans having less production.
Conclusion: retail price of chocolate is certain to increase
Pre-think: We should look for reason that even after less harvest of bans, prices of Chocolate do not get increased (remain same or even reduced).
1. Buffer stock of beans from past harvests.
2. Some kind of relief from govt. such as tax, subsidy.
3. No use of above beans in chocolate making.

A. Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases - Irrelevant

B. Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus - Even if future remedy is discovered, prices can still increase.

C. Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties - OFS

D. The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years - Even if prices are decreased in past, they still can increase in future.

E. Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier - Correct. Go with one of prethink.

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Re: Weaken Revision: Because of a rare type of fungus that [#permalink]

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09 Apr 2016, 13:38
as per option E, if most chocolate used in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier then any effect on the retail price in next 6 months has no bearing on the conclusion.Hence option E is the correct answer
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Re: Weaken Revision: Because of a rare type of fungus that [#permalink]

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25 Aug 2016, 02:45
1
KUDOS
Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.

what this ques stem doing is tieing up the retail price of chocolate to cocoa solids and cocoa butter.

It can weaken if :

1> we can change the time frame. so lets say - chocolate in current manufacturing currently using inventory of cocoa solids and cocoa butter, which is self-sufficient for, lets say, 12 month. then no effect on the retail price of chocolate for six months for sure. It might increase, but only after 6 month or 12 month.

2> if we can reduce the proportion of cocoa solids and cocoa butter in choclate and increase of some cheaper raw material instead, overall that set off the price.

what we shoudl not do?

3> we should not say some cure is suddenly got available to kill off fungus because that doesnt help us to adress the current issue. May be in future it will resolve the price increase but not now. "is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future" we should take this seriously.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

B. Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.

E. Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

E is aligned with prethinking 2
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Re: Weaken Revision: Because of a rare type of fungus that [#permalink]

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02 Feb 2017, 12:31
souvik101990 wrote:
Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months. Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

A. Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases.

B. Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.

C. Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties.

D. The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years.

E. Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

The conclusion of the argument is that “the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.” This claim is based on the fact that the wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is likely to stay high. The argument assumes that the current retail price of chocolate reflects the current wholesale price of cocoa. The correct answer will weaken the conclusion by contradicting this assumption.

(A) The argument concludes that the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase - what consumers will or will not do in response to the predicted price increase is not relevant.
(B) If researchers have discovered a method to kill the fungus, then the cacao bean crop might recover, although this statement does not provide any indication that that will happen. This statement does not mention anything about when the fungicide method would be implemented, or how long the supposed cacao bean crop recovery would take. Therefore, this statement fails to weaken the conclusion that the retail price will increase within six months.
(C) The argument does not discuss the differences between types of chocolates, so the statement that dark and bittersweet varieties will be more seriously affected than milk varieties is irrelevant.
(D) The price of chocolate in the past is irrelevant to the conclusion about the price of chocolate in the next six months.
(E) CORRECT. This statement contradicts the assumption that the retail price of chocolate immediately reflects the wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter. If the chocolate currently sold in stores was made from cocoa purchased two years ago, then it may be quite some time before the current wholesale price increase is passed on to retail chocolate consumers.
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Re: Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao [#permalink]

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13 Apr 2017, 13:59
Conclusion :- the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months
Weaken :- the retail price of chocolate is not certain to increase within six months

(D) The price of chocolate in the past is irrelevant to the conclusion about the
price of chocolate in the next six months.
(E) CORRECT. This statement contradicts the assumption that the retail price of
chocolate immediately reflects the wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa
butter. If the chocolate currently sold in stores was made from cocoa purchased
two years ago, then it may be quite some time before the current wholesale price
increase is passed on to retail chocolate consumers.
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Re: Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao   [#permalink] 13 Apr 2017, 13:59

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