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# Can someone throw light on the following: In august 1980,

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Can someone throw light on the following: In august 1980, [#permalink]

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11 May 2005, 10:21
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Can someone throw light on the following:

In august 1980, according to New york times news poll,36% of the voters called themselves republican or said they were indipendents leaning toward being republicans.In november 1984, the republican figure rose to 47%.But in the latest times survey, they were down to 38%.therefore the democrats are likely to win the next election.

which of the following would most seriously weaken the above conclusion?
a)republicans were a minority in 1984 but arepublican president was elected
e)It has been shown that 85% of republicans vote in an election, compared to 50% democrats.

Also is voting same as winning the election?

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11 May 2005, 11:29
I approached this like a PS
we have 40% for republicans and 60% for democrats.
Suppose total surveyed people are 100.
If 0.85*40% go and vote for the republican party, then the rep candidate will receive 34 votes.
In this case 36% don't vote.
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11 May 2005, 12:13
thearch wrote:
I approached this like a PS
we have 40% for republicans and 60% for democrats.
Suppose total surveyed people are 100.
If 0.85*40% go and vote for the republican party, then the rep candidate will receive 34 votes.
In this case 36% don't vote.

TheArch,

It has not been specified that Republicans + Democrats = 100%.
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11 May 2005, 12:32
kapslock wrote:
thearch wrote:
I approached this like a PS
we have 40% for republicans and 60% for democrats.
Suppose total surveyed people are 100.
If 0.85*40% go and vote for the republican party, then the rep candidate will receive 34 votes.
In this case 36% don't vote.

TheArch,

It has not been specified that Republicans + Democrats = 100%.

Kapslock, it doesn't matter, we know ~40% are likely to favor rep, by giving rest 60% to demo, we r actually creating a best case scenario for demo. If there r other parties then Demos % will go down even further. "E" is correct I believe.
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11 May 2005, 15:05
banerjeea_98 wrote:
kapslock wrote:
thearch wrote:
I approached this like a PS
we have 40% for republicans and 60% for democrats.
Suppose total surveyed people are 100.
If 0.85*40% go and vote for the republican party, then the rep candidate will receive 34 votes.
In this case 36% don't vote.

TheArch,

It has not been specified that Republicans + Democrats = 100%.

Kapslock, it doesn't matter, we know ~40% are likely to favor rep, by giving rest 60% to demo, we r actually creating a best case scenario for demo. If there r other parties then Demos % will go down even further. "E" is correct I believe.

Baner,

I agree with what you say, but we have some really tight call here.
Republicans : Democrats = 38% : 62%
Voting Repubs : Voting Dems = 38*0.85 : 62* 0.5 = 32.3 : 31

This is just but a trivial point. The important point is, that we don't know how long it is to go for the next elections, and we don't know if this percentage is going to hold till then. (If the republicans % could vary between november and now from 47% to 38%, who knows what it would be, in 2008 end).

Compared to this, isn't the other option fairly comfortable?
In 84, even when republicans were in minority, they won. When they are in majority, they are naturally more likely to win.

I know you can find holes in this statement, as to why don't Democrats naturally win despite being in a majority, but honestly, I don't have an answer to this, other than the fact that there has been a precedent for all to see.

Maybe we can try to work backwards using the OA if that can be posted now?
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11 May 2005, 21:44
good explanation everyone.the answer is e.

but is it safe to assume that just because more republicans will vote, they will necessarily win?i cant get this out of my brain.the last sentence of the argument clearly talks about 'winning' NOT voting.
am i missing something here?
11 May 2005, 21:44
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