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Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the

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Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 01 Apr 2018, 01:24
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  65% (hard)

Question Stats:

55% (01:15) correct 45% (01:08) wrong based on 634 sessions

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Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the state. In 2004, nearly 60% of all precipitation in our state was in the form of snow, whereas by 2009 that percentage had dropped to just 42%. At this rate, in 20-30 years the state may have no snow at all.

The climatologist’s argument depends on which of the following assumptions?

(A) The percentages he cites will continue to decrease at a linear rate.

(B) Global warming will cease to be a factor in the state’s snowfall yields over the next 20-30 years.

(C) Global warming is not the only factor affecting the state’s snowfall yields over the past decade.

(D) The amount of precipitation in the state in 2009 was not significantly greater than it had been in 2004.

(E) The volume of rainfall, the other primary form of precipitation in the state, was not higher in 2004 than it was in 2009.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Originally posted by akhil911 on 19 Apr 2014, 01:15.
Last edited by hazelnut on 01 Apr 2018, 01:24, edited 1 time in total.
Edited the question.
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Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the [#permalink]

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New post 19 Apr 2014, 01:16
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Solution

D. This question tests a data flaw that occurs commonly throughout the GMAT – just because the percentage that snow constitutes of the total precipitation has gone down DOES NOT mean that the actual volume of snowfall has gone down.

If overall precipitation has doubled, for example, then snowfall has gone up, from 60/100 to 84/200. D exposes this flaw – if you negate D it says “the volume of precipitation in 2009 was significantly greater than it was in 2004”, evidence that the total precipitation could well have dramatically increased.

Note the flaws in trap answers A and E – in A, the continued trend doesn’t need to be linear; in fact if it were exponential that would strengthen the conclusion even further.

And choice E actually does the opposite of D – if negated, E says “there was more rainfall in 2004 than in 2009”, showing that overall precipitation (and therefore snowfall) was way down in 2009.
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Re: Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the [#permalink]

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New post 01 Dec 2017, 09:13
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This question actually is quite tricky..but let's BOIL it down first

% Snow decreased from 60% in 2004 to 42% in 2009. If this trend continues, we'll have no snow around 2030.

Now the easy part is recognizing that all of this is %..so there's probably a number vs. % trick somewhere. But the slightly harder part is recognizing that no snow = 0 NOT 0%.
Took me a while to get that..but after you get that.....it should be obvious what the answer is: If there were 100 units of snow in 2004, and 1000 unit of snow in 2009 then and 10000000000000 units of snow in 2030 then even if we have 1% of snow.....that's enough to construct the Great Wall of Hockey Rings.

For completion, I'm going to do a list.

A. The percentages he cites will continue to decrease at a linear rate.
Negate: Even if it decreases in a parabolic shape.....we can still get to 0.
B. Global warming will cease to be a factor in the state’s snowfall yields over the next 20-30 years.
This counteracts the evidence in the statement, thus obviously cannot be an assumption.
C. Global warming is not the only factor affecting the state’s snowfall yields over the past decade.
Sure there are other factors, demographics, technology, potential warfare, ecology...but they may or may not affect the downtrend.
D. The amount of precipitation in the state in 2009 was not significantly greater than it had been in 2004.
=> What we were looking for, Bingo!
E. The volume of rainfall, the other primary form of precipitation in the state, was not higher in 2004 than it was in 2009.
Learning about rainfall is cute, but we can do that outside the GMAT. :D
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Re: Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the [#permalink]

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New post 02 Dec 2017, 10:30
D definitely. Global warming is about the "amount" of snowfall. However, the facts that have been given to us are about the percentage. So, we have to reconcile.

Percentage of snowall = amount of snowfall / total amount of precipitation

So, amount of snowfall = Percentage of snowfall*total amount of precipitation

Percentage of snowall has decreased betwen 2004 and 2009. Conclusion is that "amount of snowfall" has decreased.

But what if total amount of precipitation in 2009 has increased significantly? Then, just because Percentage of snowfall has decreased, we can't conclude that amount of snowfall has decreased.
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Re: Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the [#permalink]

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New post 03 Dec 2017, 08:20
Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the state. In 2004, nearly 60% of all precipitation in our state was in the form of snow, whereas by 2009 that percentage had dropped to just 42%. At this rate, in 20-30 years the state may have no snow at all.

The climatologist’s argument depends on which of the following assumptions?

A. The percentages he cites will continue to decrease at a linear rate. -We don't know whether the percentage "will" continue to decrease
B. Global warming will cease to be a factor in the state’s snowfall yields over the next 20-30 years. -We are not worried about the factor
C. Global warming is not the only factor affecting the state’s snowfall yields over the past decade. -We are not worried about the factor
D. The amount of precipitation in the state in 2009 was not significantly greater than it had been in 2004. -Correct
E. The volume of rainfall, the other primary form of precipitation in the state, was not higher in 2004 than it was in 2009. -Other source is out of scope
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Re: Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the [#permalink]

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New post 20 Jan 2018, 18:12
Premise: Percentage of precipitation significantly dropped from 2004 to 2009

Conclusion: In 20-30 years there may be no snow at all in the state.

Option D: The amount of precipitation in the state in 2009 was not significantly greater than it had been in 2004.

Negating the above statement undermines the conclusion by saying that, though percentage is low, the actual amount of precipitation is significantly higher. Hence one cannot say there may not be snow at all in 20-30 years. So D is the right assumption for this argument.

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Re: Climatologist: Global warming is affecting snowfall throughout the   [#permalink] 20 Jan 2018, 18:12
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