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Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jan 2016, 14:41
Hoops, it is a tough and tricky one.
M is healthy town, but it shall prevent central shops from bankrupting by closing S.
generally speaking, towns' central shops will suffer bankrupting when S opened.
How about a healthy town, such as M?
Will it fall into general scenarios or a special one?

Or we can use "Variance Test":
In towns with healthy central shopping districts, stores in those districts don't suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period.

Even with this tool, it is a tough. As we may not notice that the subtle adjectives "healthy" plays such an important role.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jan 2016, 00:29
I feel your reasoning is a little too complicated. Let us try a simpler approach. The argument suggests it is because of Save all that the stores in the town suffer bankruptcies and this has been a trend in these five year period. In order to analyse the credibility behind this statement we have to analyse weather the bankruptcies are a coincidence, a natural phenomenon, or is it because of the opening of Save all. As suggested in "C" if we can find out what proportion of stores in a healthy shopping district suffer bankruptcy in a typical five year period it will help us to asses weather Save all is responsible for the same.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Feb 2016, 14:41
Hi Aryama,

as much as your argument is strong enough for C and I agree with it 100%, I still find it hard to refute B. As many of my predecessors already mentioned, B is very strong as well. In this situation, are we really suppose to somehow weigh which one is a bit stronger?

Thanks for your reply in advance.

Best,
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 03:14
perfectstranger wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?




Premise ==> you open saveall store, other stores (1/4) goes bankrupt within 5 yerars. So we have to evaluate cause and effect relationship here.

prethinking:

anything that establishes that there is no relationship after all.
or customers of both places are different so there is no overlap of consumption.
Or no overlapping of product or services.


B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville? => even if they go outside, it doesn't help here. May be consumers of central shopping district are not from the town. We can't say anything about the conclusion.

C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period? -> if we have the number, we can analyze

bankruptcy in healthy central shopping districts ~, <,> bankruptcy in healthy central shopping districts
so that helps.


D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville? - Not relevant.

E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation? => we don't know anything about their establishment years.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2016, 20:11
Conclusion - " Correlation drawn between opening of SaveAll discount store causing bankruptcies of > 25% store in the shopping district of a "small" town"
Option A - Irrelevant
Option B - Keep
Option C - Keep
Option D - Irrelevant
Option E - Irelevant

Applying variance test on option B and option C

Option B - Yes --> With the opening of SaveAll discount stores some of the buyers might switch to those discount store. While sales may be hurt in the shopping district that may/may not cause bankruptcy.
No --> This can have multiple scenarios. Even if lesser percentage of the population do their shopping here opening of the discount store may cause bankruptcy. In the event if there are only high-end brands in the shopping district then in that case there might be no bankruptcy.

Option C - >25% --> In this case there might some other factors in place instead of bankruptcy.
25%<= --> In this case SaveAll discount stores do cause bankruptcy in the shopping district.

I choose C.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2016, 20:12
Conclusion - " Correlation drawn between opening of SaveAll discount store causing bankruptcies of > 25% store in the shopping district of a "small" town"
Option A - Irrelevant
Option B - Keep
Option C - Keep
Option D - Irrelevant
Option E - Irelevant

Applying variance test on option B and option C

Option B - Yes --> With the opening of SaveAll discount stores some of the buyers might switch to those discount store. While sales may be hurt in the shopping district that may/may not cause bankruptcy.
No --> This can have multiple scenarios. Even if lesser percentage of the population do their shopping here opening of the discount store may cause bankruptcy. In the event if there are only high-end brands in the shopping district then in that case there might be no bankruptcy.

Option C - >25% --> In this case there might some other factors in place instead of bankruptcy.
25%<= --> In this case SaveAll discount stores do cause bankruptcy in the shopping district.

I choose C.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2016, 23:19
tkarthi4u wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the
opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small
towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town,
within fi ve years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping
district.
The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?
(A) Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store
on the outskirts of their towns?
(B) Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in
Morganville?
(C) In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer
bankruptcy during a typical fi ve-year period?
(D) What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from
Morganville?
(E) Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their fi rst fi ve years of operation?

Please explain? I choose an another answer



Does option 'C' says what is the current bankruptcy rate of towns with central shopping district healthy before SaveAll discount department store
opened.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Jul 2016, 02:12
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smartguy595 wrote:
tkarthi4u wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the
opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small
towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town,
within fi ve years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping
district.
The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?
(A) Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store
on the outskirts of their towns?
(B) Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in
Morganville?
(C) In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer
bankruptcy during a typical fi ve-year period?
(D) What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from
Morganville?
(E) Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their fi rst fi ve years of operation?

Please explain? I choose an another answer



Does option 'C' says what is the current bankruptcy rate of towns with central shopping district healthy before SaveAll discount department store
opened.



Hello, smartguy595

In this argument we have such link:

The 25% of shops closed -> [because] ->
Big supermarket opened in the city.

Here we need to have a question: are there any other reasons why these shops were closed?

Answer C asks: what percentage of closed shops in the cities that do not have these big supermarkets?
First case: there 10% of closed shops in cities without supermarket - ok, we can infer that the supermarket is the real reason why we have 25% of shops' bankruptcy in cities with supermarkets
Second case: there 25% of closed shops in cities without supermarket - we can infer that the supermarket is not the reason why we have 25% of shops' bankruptcy in cities with supermarkets
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2016, 02:11
evaluating question is similar to weakening question in that we need to weaken/criticize the argument before going to answer choices.

what falsify the argument?

what happen if there is no opening of Saveall stores, but 25 percent of the stores in the town go bankrupt. if this scenario happen, the opening of Saveall dose not affect the rate of bankcrupcy and the argument fall apart.

C potentially weaken argument

this is very hard problem
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Oct 2016, 10:22
Went for C. It actually attacks the reason given in the argument. If a high proportion of stores bankrupt in a 5 year period without SaveAll, then it weakens the argument that SaveAll is responsible for the quarter of the bankruptcies of the stores. On the other hand, if a low proportion of stores bankrupt in a 5 year period without SaveAll, then it strengthens the argument that SaveAll is responsible for the quarter of the bankruptcies of the stores.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Apr 2017, 00:12
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perfectstranger wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?

OG2017 CR632 P535


Step 1: Identify the Question

The words useful for evaluating in the question stem indicate that this is an Evaluate the Argument question.

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

CA: if keep CSD healthy → don’t open SA ©
Other: SA open, >1/4 stores → bankrupt in 5 yrs
(Note: the © symbol is one way to indicate the conclusion in your notes.)

The argument assumes a certain cause-effect relationship: that the opening of a SaveAll causes many other stores to go bankrupt. If this effect is valid, then allowing the opening a SaveAll in Morganville does not make sense. But, could there be another explanation?

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

On Evaluate questions, the answers will be in the form of a question or a “whether x is true” statement. The correct answer will address an issue on which the argument hinges, depending on whether that statement is true: one way, the argument will be strengthened; the other way, the argument will be weakened.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) The argument hinges on whether the SaveAll really does cause other stores to go bankrupt, not whether the community activist will be successful in trying to block SaveAll. For that reason, whether other community activists have managed to prevent SaveAll from opening in other towns is irrelevant to the argument.
(B) Whether the percentage is large (e.g., 80%) or small (e.g., 20%) does not impact the argument. At the moment, enough people shop at these businesses in town to allow them to stay in business. The question is whether too many shoppers will change their behavior after SaveAll opens.
(C) CORRECT. If, in any given five-year period, one-quarter (or more) of businesses can be expected to go bankrupt regardless of what else is happening in the marketplace, then the statistic cited by the community activist no longer supports her argument. SaveAll wouldn’t be hurting other businesses in the way her statistic implies and her argument is weakened. If, on the other hand, only something like one-tenth of businesses would normally go bankrupt, then the argument is strengthened: more businesses are going bankrupt than would otherwise have been expected, so perhaps SaveAll really is the cause.
(D) The argument hinges on the health of other businesses in Morganville, not on employment opportunities for the town’s residents. In the real world, it might be reasonable to factor in possible impacts on employment, but this argument does not ask us to do so.
(E) The argument hinges on the health of other businesses in Morganville, not on the profits that SaveAll might make. Even if SaveAll did sometimes lose money in the first five years, it would still be true that more than one-quarter of other businesses in the area could be expected to go bankrupt.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Apr 2017, 02:10
Cause-Effect type.
Narrowed to option C, verify:
If the same portion of stores is closed during normal 5-year period then no cause but effect - WEAKENS.
If none or lower portion of stores were closed then no cause no effect, hence - STRENGTHENS
Correct, answer C.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Apr 2017, 01:16
I missed reading "typcial" in option C and selected B . In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Jun 2017, 01:17
Merged topics. Please, search before posting questions!
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Sep 2017, 14:56
bipolarbear wrote:
Jivana wrote:
B: for me.

C has a very strong case, but I think B calls out a more fundamental issue than C does.

B:
Currently, do people shop in the central shopping district? If yes, then yeah saveall will cause a major problem. But if people do not, then saveall's effects on past bankruptcies as a reason to not allow them to open shop does not hold much water.

And if people, do shop in the central shopping district then allowing saveall to open shop can definitely play a big part in future bankruptcies.

C: The key piece of info missing here is SaveAll's effect on these bankruptcies. Even if we were to know how many shops go bankrupt during a five-year period, it has no correlation to SaveAll's effects.

Between, B & C --> B sounds more reasonable to me.


The problem with B is that even if you know whether most people in Morganville shop in the central district, Saveall might still cause bankruptcies because everyone will move to Saveall. If you knew whether most people in OTHER districts used to shop in the central district, before Saveall was opened, that may help.

I think you're missing what C states.
25% of shops go bankrupt after Saveall opens. If 5% go bankrupt during a five-year period, Saveall is "correlated" with a 20% increase in bankruptcies. If 25% of shops go bankrupt, then there's no real correlation between Saveall and an increase in bankruptcies. Thus knowing the "a priori" percentage of bankruptcies would help in evaluating whether or not Saveall contributes to such an effect.



but for option B, if you know that almost no one shops at Central D, then opening of saveall will have no effect on Central D's stores as no one shops there anyway!
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central  [#permalink]

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New post 30 Oct 2017, 07:48
I think I got a pretty good hold as to why B is wrong Option Choice.

Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?

Now this option Choice speaks about the residents of Morganville. This Option choice makes an inherent assumption that ONLY the residents of Morganvile shop at stores in Morganville. What if people from nearby districts/states also come to shop at Morganville. What if the residents of Morganville are only a minority shoppers of the Store ? In these cases, it is clear that finding out the percentage of residents would not make a difference.
Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central &nbs [#permalink] 30 Oct 2017, 07:48

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