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Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 29 Jul 2014, 15:41
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tuanquang269 wrote:
This is my new project: Renew Old Thread => Back to basic => Just try It and give your reasoning
The topic will be sticky for 2 days from starting


Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from Morganville?
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?


Premise :
Other towns : SaveAll opened ---> Quarter of Central shopping district shops go bankrupt

Conclusion :
Morganville : SaveAll opening --> Central shopping district shops will go bankrupt

The answer to the following question would be most useful for evaluating the reasoning :
Are there any other factors, besides the opening of SaveAll stores, resulting in the Central district shops going bankrupt.

The option most alike the question above is Option C.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2014, 00:27
Excerpt uses 'other towns' as an example supporting 'SaveAll = other stores bankrupt' in Morganville
to explain this argument, which is completely reliant on using 'other towns' as support, the answer choice must relate to the credibility of these 'other towns'; such as whether SaveAll is the only cause of their bankruptcy, or whether other town is similar to Morganville.


tuanquang269 wrote:
A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
Excerpt uses opened SaveAll as an example, so unopened SaveAll seems out of scope

B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
Since reason of bankrupcy was never discussed, it is unknown whether shopping is a major factor related to bankrupcy. Finding this does very little to support/weaken the fact that SaveAll = bankruptcy.

C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
This sheds light on the situation between 'other towns' and Morganville, it also helps explore whether other factors also play a role in bankruptcy so that SaveAll may not be the only cause.

D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from Morganville?
Employee enrollment is not the entirety of costs, which isn't entirely the cause of bankruptcy.

E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?
Author did not establish any connection between SaveAll's earnings and other stores going bankrupt. SaveAll could've be pulling a destructive price war, for instance.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 31 Jul 2014, 01:05
Must be C. If more than a quarter of the stores usually suffer bankruptcy in towns with health central shopping districts in typical five year period (common pattern), then SaveAll is unlikely the reason.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 31 Jul 2014, 01:05
This topic have been merged with: http://gmatclub.com/forum/topic-81304.html

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 16 Oct 2014, 15:19
Hi @e-gmat,
I wanted to ask one thing - here I am stuck why option B is incorrect and C correct. According to B, Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville? So if currently people are doing online shopping, then opening of SaveAll would not affect, else it would affect. Here, variance test is applied and successful. Also please tell me how is option C is correct?
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 19 Oct 2014, 07:29
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HI

IMO If we apply variance test on Option B

Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville ?

YES : Say 70% of the residents do there shopping at stores in M. So after opening of the SaveAll stores can there be a impact ? Yes there can be a impact on stores of M
NO : Say 30% of the residents do there shopping at stores in M. So after opening of the SaveAll stores can there be a impact ? Yes there can be a impact on stores of M as these 30% can start buying from SaveAll stores.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 14 Jul 2015, 14:04
I chose C because I felt it would evaluate the scenario more closely and it is the right answer.
But I'm bit confused why B is wrong. It is possible that If poeple used to go for shopping at city stores then they may shift to new one. or It is also possible that if city stores are of textiles and mall is of electric appliances(I mean both are different) then it's presence does not affect anymore.
Is my thought process in correct direction.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 16 Oct 2015, 03:37
In this qsn,the key underlying assumptions lead us to the correct answer choice which is C.
The assumptions which underline the activist's reasoning are:
a) what happened with other small towns will be replicated in Morganville with opening of Save All
b) Like Morganville , other towns that have been compared also had a healthy shopping district when Save All opened

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jan 2016, 14:41
Hoops, it is a tough and tricky one.
M is healthy town, but it shall prevent central shops from bankrupting by closing S.
generally speaking, towns' central shops will suffer bankrupting when S opened.
How about a healthy town, such as M?
Will it fall into general scenarios or a special one?

Or we can use "Variance Test":
In towns with healthy central shopping districts, stores in those districts don't suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period.

Even with this tool, it is a tough. As we may not notice that the subtle adjectives "healthy" plays such an important role.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jan 2016, 00:29
I feel your reasoning is a little too complicated. Let us try a simpler approach. The argument suggests it is because of Save all that the stores in the town suffer bankruptcies and this has been a trend in these five year period. In order to analyse the credibility behind this statement we have to analyse weather the bankruptcies are a coincidence, a natural phenomenon, or is it because of the opening of Save all. As suggested in "C" if we can find out what proportion of stores in a healthy shopping district suffer bankruptcy in a typical five year period it will help us to asses weather Save all is responsible for the same.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 04 Feb 2016, 14:41
Hi Aryama,

as much as your argument is strong enough for C and I agree with it 100%, I still find it hard to refute B. As many of my predecessors already mentioned, B is very strong as well. In this situation, are we really suppose to somehow weigh which one is a bit stronger?

Thanks for your reply in advance.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 03:14
perfectstranger wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?




Premise ==> you open saveall store, other stores (1/4) goes bankrupt within 5 yerars. So we have to evaluate cause and effect relationship here.

prethinking:

anything that establishes that there is no relationship after all.
or customers of both places are different so there is no overlap of consumption.
Or no overlapping of product or services.


B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville? => even if they go outside, it doesn't help here. May be consumers of central shopping district are not from the town. We can't say anything about the conclusion.

C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period? -> if we have the number, we can analyze

bankruptcy in healthy central shopping districts ~, <,> bankruptcy in healthy central shopping districts
so that helps.


D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville? - Not relevant.

E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation? => we don't know anything about their establishment years.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2016, 20:11
Conclusion - " Correlation drawn between opening of SaveAll discount store causing bankruptcies of > 25% store in the shopping district of a "small" town"
Option A - Irrelevant
Option B - Keep
Option C - Keep
Option D - Irrelevant
Option E - Irelevant

Applying variance test on option B and option C

Option B - Yes --> With the opening of SaveAll discount stores some of the buyers might switch to those discount store. While sales may be hurt in the shopping district that may/may not cause bankruptcy.
No --> This can have multiple scenarios. Even if lesser percentage of the population do their shopping here opening of the discount store may cause bankruptcy. In the event if there are only high-end brands in the shopping district then in that case there might be no bankruptcy.

Option C - >25% --> In this case there might some other factors in place instead of bankruptcy.
25%<= --> In this case SaveAll discount stores do cause bankruptcy in the shopping district.

I choose C.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2016, 20:12
Conclusion - " Correlation drawn between opening of SaveAll discount store causing bankruptcies of > 25% store in the shopping district of a "small" town"
Option A - Irrelevant
Option B - Keep
Option C - Keep
Option D - Irrelevant
Option E - Irelevant

Applying variance test on option B and option C

Option B - Yes --> With the opening of SaveAll discount stores some of the buyers might switch to those discount store. While sales may be hurt in the shopping district that may/may not cause bankruptcy.
No --> This can have multiple scenarios. Even if lesser percentage of the population do their shopping here opening of the discount store may cause bankruptcy. In the event if there are only high-end brands in the shopping district then in that case there might be no bankruptcy.

Option C - >25% --> In this case there might some other factors in place instead of bankruptcy.
25%<= --> In this case SaveAll discount stores do cause bankruptcy in the shopping district.

I choose C.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2016, 23:19
tkarthi4u wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the
opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small
towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town,
within fi ve years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping
district.
The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?
(A) Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store
on the outskirts of their towns?
(B) Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in
Morganville?
(C) In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer
bankruptcy during a typical fi ve-year period?
(D) What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from
Morganville?
(E) Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their fi rst fi ve years of operation?

Please explain? I choose an another answer

[Reveal] Spoiler:
C


Does option 'C' says what is the current bankruptcy rate of towns with central shopping district healthy before SaveAll discount department store
opened.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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smartguy595 wrote:
tkarthi4u wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the
opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small
towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town,
within fi ve years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping
district.
The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?
(A) Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store
on the outskirts of their towns?
(B) Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in
Morganville?
(C) In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer
bankruptcy during a typical fi ve-year period?
(D) What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from
Morganville?
(E) Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their fi rst fi ve years of operation?

Please explain? I choose an another answer

[Reveal] Spoiler:
C


Does option 'C' says what is the current bankruptcy rate of towns with central shopping district healthy before SaveAll discount department store
opened.



Hello, smartguy595

In this argument we have such link:

The 25% of shops closed -> [because] ->
Big supermarket opened in the city.

Here we need to have a question: are there any other reasons why these shops were closed?

Answer C asks: what percentage of closed shops in the cities that do not have these big supermarkets?
First case: there 10% of closed shops in cities without supermarket - ok, we can infer that the supermarket is the real reason why we have 25% of shops' bankruptcy in cities with supermarkets
Second case: there 25% of closed shops in cities without supermarket - we can infer that the supermarket is not the reason why we have 25% of shops' bankruptcy in cities with supermarkets
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2016, 02:11
evaluating question is similar to weakening question in that we need to weaken/criticize the argument before going to answer choices.

what falsify the argument?

what happen if there is no opening of Saveall stores, but 25 percent of the stores in the town go bankrupt. if this scenario happen, the opening of Saveall dose not affect the rate of bankcrupcy and the argument fall apart.

C potentially weaken argument

this is very hard problem
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 17 Oct 2016, 10:22
Went for C. It actually attacks the reason given in the argument. If a high proportion of stores bankrupt in a 5 year period without SaveAll, then it weakens the argument that SaveAll is responsible for the quarter of the bankruptcies of the stores. On the other hand, if a low proportion of stores bankrupt in a 5 year period without SaveAll, then it strengthens the argument that SaveAll is responsible for the quarter of the bankruptcies of the stores.
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Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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perfectstranger wrote:
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

A. Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?
B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?
C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?
D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn form Morganville?
E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?

OG2017 CR632 P535


Step 1: Identify the Question

The words useful for evaluating in the question stem indicate that this is an Evaluate the Argument question.

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

CA: if keep CSD healthy → don’t open SA ©
Other: SA open, >1/4 stores → bankrupt in 5 yrs
(Note: the © symbol is one way to indicate the conclusion in your notes.)

The argument assumes a certain cause-effect relationship: that the opening of a SaveAll causes many other stores to go bankrupt. If this effect is valid, then allowing the opening a SaveAll in Morganville does not make sense. But, could there be another explanation?

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

On Evaluate questions, the answers will be in the form of a question or a “whether x is true” statement. The correct answer will address an issue on which the argument hinges, depending on whether that statement is true: one way, the argument will be strengthened; the other way, the argument will be weakened.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) The argument hinges on whether the SaveAll really does cause other stores to go bankrupt, not whether the community activist will be successful in trying to block SaveAll. For that reason, whether other community activists have managed to prevent SaveAll from opening in other towns is irrelevant to the argument.
(B) Whether the percentage is large (e.g., 80%) or small (e.g., 20%) does not impact the argument. At the moment, enough people shop at these businesses in town to allow them to stay in business. The question is whether too many shoppers will change their behavior after SaveAll opens.
(C) CORRECT. If, in any given five-year period, one-quarter (or more) of businesses can be expected to go bankrupt regardless of what else is happening in the marketplace, then the statistic cited by the community activist no longer supports her argument. SaveAll wouldn’t be hurting other businesses in the way her statistic implies and her argument is weakened. If, on the other hand, only something like one-tenth of businesses would normally go bankrupt, then the argument is strengthened: more businesses are going bankrupt than would otherwise have been expected, so perhaps SaveAll really is the cause.
(D) The argument hinges on the health of other businesses in Morganville, not on employment opportunities for the town’s residents. In the real world, it might be reasonable to factor in possible impacts on employment, but this argument does not ask us to do so.
(E) The argument hinges on the health of other businesses in Morganville, not on the profits that SaveAll might make. Even if SaveAll did sometimes lose money in the first five years, it would still be true that more than one-quarter of other businesses in the area could be expected to go bankrupt.
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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central [#permalink]

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New post 20 Apr 2017, 02:10
Cause-Effect type.
Narrowed to option C, verify:
If the same portion of stores is closed during normal 5-year period then no cause but effect - WEAKENS.
If none or lower portion of stores were closed then no cause no effect, hence - STRENGTHENS
Correct, answer C.

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Re: Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central   [#permalink] 20 Apr 2017, 02:10

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