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CR:Meteorologists

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CR:Meteorologists [#permalink]

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New post 15 Jun 2005, 04:50
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing
against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?

A Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
B Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
C Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
D Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
E Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

No OA again :oops:
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Re: CR:Meteorologists [#permalink]

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New post 15 Jun 2005, 07:38
A Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
...then how can they be evaluated if the causes cant be understood? Out

B Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
My Choice although it's not too strong. The more the gain in the models, the better the precision of weather prediction.

C Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
Out. Irrelevant. Beginning to be constructed.....so what happens when it is constructed? We don't know.

D Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
Out. Do the forcasts being correct mean proper evaluation? NO.

E Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
So what? Irrelevant.

(B) for me.
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 [#permalink]

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New post 15 Jun 2005, 07:56
A Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
- not important.

B Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.

C Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
- out of scope

D Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
- not important

E Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
- out of scope

I'll go with B. If the accuracy of the model is accompanied by improved precision of weather forecasts, then the model can clearly be evaluated.
  [#permalink] 15 Jun 2005, 07:56
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