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CR - Meteorologists

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Senior Manager
Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 325

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CR - Meteorologists [#permalink]

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11 Jul 2007, 11:53
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

13. Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?
(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.
(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.
(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.
(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

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Senior Manager
Joined: 06 Mar 2006
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11 Jul 2007, 12:20
I don't know how to explain this, but I choose A for 12. and C for 13.

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Senior Manager
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11 Jul 2007, 12:34
A and B for me

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Manager
Joined: 19 Aug 2006
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11 Jul 2007, 12:48
A and B for me, too.

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Director
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 734

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11 Jul 2007, 12:50
12. B.
if mathematical model improves so does the forecasting

13. B.
There are factorys which can not be measured with accuracy.

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Manager
Joined: 19 Jun 2007
Posts: 65

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Re: CR - Meteorologists [#permalink]

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11 Jul 2007, 17:11
sidbidus wrote:
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
Goes with the main idea of the passage.

(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
This tells you what will happen if what author says is true so it doesnt Refute author's argument.

(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
Information is in Addition to what provided by the paragraph so irrelevant.

(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
Modern Forecast's 80% accuracy has no relation to the new model as described in the para.

(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
Bunch of Pessimists Irrelevant

13. Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?
(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.
Irrelevant.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
Since the new model is based on emperical data, it can fail due to unquantifiable extraneous factors.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.
So what if more computers are required. The model will still work. We will ask Gates to pitch in some money for this.Model will work though

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.
Yes. That will be another set of instruments like (C) that will be needed but hey, you gotta do what you gotta do.Model will still work

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.
Yes. Thats why we need the newer model. If created, it might work.

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Re: CR - Meteorologists   [#permalink] 11 Jul 2007, 17:11
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