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effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question

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effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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04 Dec 2013, 00:49
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Can someone help explain how to interpret this graph for IR and the solutions.

http://postimg.org/image/qckajicep/

Thanks!
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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04 Dec 2013, 12:46
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audiogal101 wrote:
Can someone help explain how to interpret this graph for IR and the solutions.

http://postimg.org/image/qckajicep/

Thanks!

Dear audiogal101,
I'm happy to give my two cents.

That graph is an absolute disaster. It makes absolutely no sense. The verbal description does not explain it properly, and the graph itself is utter nonsense. In particular, the scale at the bottom, with gradations from "against" to "for" --- that makes absolutely no sense. I believe this graph was designed either by someone who doesn't speak English well and/or someone who does not understand graphs.

Don't worry that you do not understand it. Whatever the source is, I would avoid that source at all costs.

Mike
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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07 Dec 2013, 11:45
mikemcgarry wrote:
audiogal101 wrote:
Can someone help explain how to interpret this graph for IR and the solutions.

http://postimg.org/image/qckajicep/

Thanks!

Dear audiogal101,
I'm happy to give my two cents.

That graph is an absolute disaster. It makes absolutely no sense. The verbal description does not explain it properly, and the graph itself is utter nonsense. In particular, the scale at the bottom, with gradations from "against" to "for" --- that makes absolutely no sense. I believe this graph was designed either by someone who doesn't speak English well and/or someone who does not understand graphs.

Don't worry that you do not understand it. Whatever the source is, I would avoid that source at all costs.

Mike

Ahh! That's a relief! But actually the source is gmat prep
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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08 Dec 2013, 21:52
I agree with the above - this is one of the most confusing graphs, and the graph is not labelled well. In fact, I don't even think the first statement can be derived based on the information given.

In any case, I thin it's something like this:

1) In this case, it does not matter at all what the issue preference is for the party members. All we care about is being highest on the y axis, which is the probability of the voters choice being the same as their prefernce. So, which party is highest on the y axis? It seems like Delta is the best option, but strictly speaking it is not actually possible to tell for sure.
2) In this case we only care about the voters that are on the "against" side of the graph. So, we look at the leftmost points on the x axis, and see which party is the highest. It appears to be zeta.
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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09 Dec 2013, 11:10
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audiogal101 wrote:
Ahh! That's a relief! But actually the source is gmat prep

Dear audiogal101,
OK, I'll tell you what I think the graph & questions are getting at here. I think you would be unlikely to see a graph such as this, except as something experimental, but let's go at this.

First, the horizontal scale on the graph --- let's pretend that folks were asked some kind of web survey about the work reduction issue, one of those surveys that said "Respond 1 to 5, with 1 indicating the most disagreement and 5 indicating the most agreement" ---- those are the positions across the bottom ---- we could label the ticks "strongly against", "somewhat against", "neutral", "somewhat for", and "strongly for". Those are the responses at some time before the vote. Then, the dot above is the probability that, when the time came to vote, they vote "yes" for the working-time reduction issue.

Thus, for members of the Delta party, folks who previously were "strongly against" were about 60% likely to vote "yes" when the time came to vote on the working-time reduction issue; folks who previously were "neutral" were about 75% likely; and folks who previously were "strongly for" were about 82% likely.

OK, now the questions:
1a) Members of the ______________ party are most apt to vote according to their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction.
Well, in a way, this is a correlation question. Of the five parties, which one shows the most change from lowest on the "against" side to highest on the "for" side? In other words, which party has the steepest upward slant? Clearly, the Delta party rises with the steepest slope, and has the biggest change from low on the left to high on the right. That has to be the answer.

1b) Members of the ______________ party are most apt to vote against the issue of working-time reduction if their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction was also against.
In other words, of all the "against" dots, the dots on the far left, which one is lowest? That appears to be the "No Preference" line. That has to be the answer.

Remember, the virtue of graphs is that whole "picture equals a 1000 words" thing ---- a ton of information directly accessible in visual form. Often what a graph question is asking, when you unpack it, is something remarkable simple --- "of the dots on the left, which one is the lowest?" Don't be intimidated by a solution if it turns out what you have to do is third-grade easy. Graphs are supposed to make things that easy.

Does all this make sense?
Mike
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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16 Dec 2013, 22:58
hey can you please post the OA?
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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12 Jan 2014, 01:21
@mike, i didn understand what should be the answer to the second ques..which party? Zeta?
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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12 Jan 2014, 20:35
abdb wrote:
@mike, i didn understand what should be the answer to the second ques..which party? Zeta?

Dear abdb,
The chart to the right of the graph says:
Political Party
Delta
Sigma
Zeta
Theta
No Preference

Of those five options, the last one, "no preference", is the line of people "most apt to vote against the issue of working-time reduction if their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction was also against." Admittedly, there probably isn't a "no preference" party, but simply the unaffiliated people who have no preference. Nevertheless, for the purpose of this question, those are the five choices given for Political Party, and the line that best describes the relationship in the question is the one labeled "no preference."

The folks who said they previously stated they were "against" are on the far left in the diagram. Of those people, Zeta is the highest dot --- folks of the Zeta party would previously stated they were "against" are the most likely to vote "for" the issue. Those are the folks who changed their minds the most. That's not what the question is asking. The folks who were most consistent --- who previously said they were "against" and were least likely to support the issue --- that's the lowest dot on the left, showing the lowest probability of voting for the issue. That's the "no preference" line.

Does this make sense?
Mike
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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25 Jul 2014, 16:29
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Here is the OA
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File comment: OA

Captura de Tela 2014-07-25 às 20.28.18.png [ 77.07 KiB | Viewed 13057 times ]

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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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04 Aug 2014, 13:16
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This is an old thread but the correct answer has still not been explained.

1. Which party are most likely to vote on their previous stated preference? Pick the point which has the highest probability. The higher the probability, the most likely they will not change their preference. Therefore the people in Delta who preferred for, has the highest probability they will vote the same as their stated preference.

2. Which party will most likely vote against if their preference was against. Looking at only the left points where the preferences are against, pick the one with highest probability, which is Zeta. This means the people that preferred against in Zeta are most likely to vote against.

plaverbach wrote:
Here is the OA
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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09 Aug 2014, 13:10
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I think this might be an experimental question. I had the OA as Zeta, Zeta for the same question in the exam which I gave !
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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08 Dec 2014, 12:25
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mikemcgarry

1. 1a) Members of the ______________ party are most apt to vote according to their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction.

The previous of Delta was 60% against at the beginning and aprox 20% (100%-80%, the for vote) at the end of the horizontal line of the graph.

Wasn't supposed to be an downward slant instead of an upward slant in order to have the "most apt to vote according to their previously stated preference?" For example a downward slant would have brought the Delta to 40% for which would have meant 60% against.

Considering this reasoning, the answer should be "no preference" (precisely 60/40), although is Delta.

2. Why is the OA Zeta though? Why do they consider the correct answer the slant starting from the highest "against" though...?

I agree with you that the formulation is a bit wordy. Thanks!
T
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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09 Dec 2014, 11:52
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TudorM wrote:
mikemcgarry

1. 1a) Members of the ______________ party are most apt to vote according to their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction.

The previous of Delta was 60% against at the beginning and aprox 20% (100%-80%, the for vote) at the end of the horizontal line of the graph.

Wasn't supposed to be an downward slant instead of an upward slant in order to have the "most apt to vote according to their previously stated preference?" For example a downward slant would have brought the Delta to 40% for which would have meant 60% against.

Considering this reasoning, the answer should be "no preference" (precisely 60/40), although is Delta.

2. Why is the OA Zeta though? Why do they consider the correct answer the slant starting from the highest "against" though...?

I agree with you that the formulation is a bit wordy. Thanks!
T

Dear TudorM,
I'm happy to respond. This is a very confusing question, and I believe you are not thinking about the graph correctly. I think I also misunderstood the graph in my previous responses, but now I think I understand the logic and the basis of the OA.

First, let's think about the vertical axis. This is the probability that the person's vote is the same as that person's previously stated preference. Now, in most votes, there's just two options, "for" vs. "against," or "yes" vs. "no." That would not explain five dots in each line. Here, we have to imagine in a scenario in which each person could cast a vote for one of five options:
(1) strongly against = against
(2) mildly against
(3) indifferent
(4) mildly for
(5) strongly for = for
So, they asked everyone which of these five options they would choose, and then each person actually voted for one of the five options.

For example, look at the Delta line.
The first dot, over "Against," has a height of 0.60. This means that folks who said they were "strongly against" were 60% likely to cast their vote "strongly against."
The second dot, over what we might call "mildly against," has a height of about 0.69. This means that folks who said they were "mildly against" were 69% likely to cast their vote "mildly against."
The third dot, over what we might call "indifferent," has a height of about 0.73. This means that folks who said they were "indifferent" were 73% likely to cast their vote "indifferent."
The fourth dot, over what we might call "mildly for," has a height of about 0.78. This means that folks who said they were "mildly for" were 78% likely to cast their vote "mildly for."
The fifth dot, over "For," has a height of 0.81, the highest dot on the entire graph. This means that folks who said they were "strongly for" were 81% likely to cast their vote "strongly for."

You were looking at the region above the bars, the probability that folks didn't vote for the option for which they said they would vote. The question never asks about that at all.

1a) Members of the ______________ party are most apt to vote according to their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction.
In other words, we are looking for the party in which, across the five possible voting options, people were most likely to vote as they said they would vote. On average, the probabilities would be the highest for the five groups. Well, if we look at the graph, the highest line is clearly Delta --- four of its five dots are the highest dot in that group. It's clear that if we took the average of the five group probabilities for Delta, it would be higher than any similar average for any of the other groups. The answer must be Delta.

1b) Members of the ______________ party are most apt to vote against the issue of working-time reduction if their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction was also against.
What the question is called "against" I am calling "strongly against" --- the column on the far left. In the column on the far left, we have all the people who said they were going to vote "strongly against." Of the people in that group, who were most likely to vote as they said they would? In other words, which dot is highest in the far left column? Clearly, the Zeta dot is the highest: that must be the OA.

Does all this make sense?
Mike
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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09 Dec 2014, 23:59
1a) Members of the ______________ party are most apt to vote according to their previously stated preferences regarding the regarding the issue of working-time reduction.

In other words, we are looking for the party in which, across the five possible voting options, people were most likely to vote as they said they would vote. On average, the probabilities would be the highest for the five groups. Well, if we look at the graph, the highest line is clearly Delta --- four of its five dots are the highest dot in that group. It's clear that if we took the average of the five group probabilities for Delta, it would be higher than any similar average for any of the other groups. The answer must be Delta.

Does the question test weighted average [highlighted in the above explanation]?
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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06 Jun 2017, 08:43
jrose wrote:
This is an old thread but the correct answer has still not been explained.

1. Which party are most likely to vote on their previous stated preference? Pick the point which has the highest probability. The higher the probability, the most likely they will not change their preference. Therefore the people in Delta who preferred for, has the highest probability they will vote the same as their stated preference.

2. Which party will most likely vote against if their preference was against. Looking at only the left points where the preferences are against, pick the one with highest probability, which is Zeta. This means the people that preferred against in Zeta are most likely to vote against.

plaverbach wrote:
Here is the OA

well I also chose Delta but id argue that it really depends on which members within Delta we are talking about; I mean for Zelta they explicitly provide us with this information

still confusing
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Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question [#permalink]

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08 Jun 2017, 16:26
2/ Zeta is the answer, but not THETA. Here is how: just look at the most left and the right left number for AGAINST. For zeta, it is 0.7 against and 0.55 against => probability is 0.385 (=0.7 x 0.55), for Theta, it is 0.6 for against and 0.6 for against. => probability is 0.36

1/ Delta is the answer. Using the instinct, Delta change radically from against to for. This is the most remarkable, then it should be the answer.
Re: effect of voters previously stated preference -IR question   [#permalink] 08 Jun 2017, 16:26
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