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Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at

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Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Feb 2016, 04:16
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Question Stats:

75% (01:32) correct 25% (01:36) wrong based on 190 sessions

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Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at five polling locations during a recent election, suggested that the incumbent mayor—a Democrat—was going to lose the election by a wide margin. But, in fact, by the time the final results were tabulated, the incumbent had won the election by a narrow margin.

Which of the following, if true, would explain the apparent contradiction in the results of the exit polls?

(A) The people chosen at random to be polled by the independent organization happened to be Democrats.

(B) The exit poll locations chosen by the independent organization were in predominantly Republican districts.

(C) The exit polls were conducted during the afternoon, when most of the districts’ younger voters, who did not support the incumbent mayor, were at work.

(D) The incumbent mayor ran on a platform that promised to lower taxes if elected.

(E) An earlier poll, conducted the week before the election, had predicted that the incumbent mayor would win.

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Re: Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Feb 2016, 06:58
Exit polls suggest that the incumbent mayor, who is a democrat, will lose by a huge margin. But the mayor wins by a narrow margin. --> This is possible if the exit polls were conducted in an inconsistent manner and finding this inconsistency will help resolve the paradox.

(A) The people chosen at random to be polled by the independent organization happened to be Democrats. - Incorrect - This is an inconsistency but it widens the gap instead of resolving the paradox.

(B) The exit poll locations chosen by the independent organization were in predominantly Republican districts. - Correct - Since most of the surveyed members in the exit polls were Republican districts, the exit polls favored a Republican candidate. This inconsistency is what we are looking for.

(C) The exit polls were conducted during the afternoon, when most of the districts’ younger voters, who did not support the incumbent mayor, were at work. - Incorrect - Irrelevant

(D) The incumbent mayor ran on a platform that promised to lower taxes if elected. - Incorrect - Irrelevant

(E) An earlier poll, conducted the week before the election, had predicted that the incumbent mayor would win. - Incorrect - Out of context.

IMO answer is B.
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Re: Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Feb 2016, 10:36
Ans is E. Others are out of context.
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Re: Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Nov 2016, 10:59
Although i marked 'B', but that is only coz others were irrelevant. B does not answer the swing in defeat by a large no. of votes to a marginal win.
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Re: Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Nov 2016, 12:04
saurabhsavant wrote:
Although i marked 'B', but that is only coz others were irrelevant. B does not answer the swing in defeat by a large no. of votes to a marginal win.


IMHO (B) as well and I think we can spot the reason for that...

Quote:
Though the Exit Poll result suggest that Democrats would lose by a narrow margin , actually they won by a narrow margin.


The best reason for this contradiction will be to prove that the sample selected for the exit poll was itself faulty/biased.

Check, (B) does, exactly that..

Hence (B) answer the contradiction ...

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Re: Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Mar 2019, 00:00
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Re: Exit polls, conducted by an independent organization among voters at   [#permalink] 09 Mar 2019, 00:00
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