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Imagine a parking lot with 999 cars with license plates

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12 Aug 2003, 07:45
This topic is locked. If you want to discuss this question please re-post it in the respective forum.

Imagine a parking lot with 999 cars with license plates numbered from 001 to 999 and no two cars having the same license plate number. At 5pm, they all leave the lot one by one. What is the probability that the license plate numbers of the first four cars to leave are in increasing order of magintude?
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AkamaiBrah
Former Senior Instructor, Manhattan GMAT and VeritasPrep
Vice President, Midtown NYC Investment Bank, Structured Finance IT
MFE, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, Class of 2005
MBA, Anderson School of Management, UCLA, Class of 1993

Last edited by AkamaiBrah on 13 Aug 2003, 08:14, edited 1 time in total.

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12 Aug 2003, 07:58
AkamaiBrah wrote:
Imagine a parking lot with 999 cars with license plates numbered from 001 to 999 and no two cars having the same license plate number. At 5pm, they all leave the lot one by one. What is the probability that the license plate numbers of the first four cars to leave are in increasing order of magintude?

The # of the first car can be anywhere, but the AVERAGE of all of the places it could be is right in the middle, so the average chances of the second car being greater than this value is 1/2.

Now the third car has to be above the second, and the chance of this is 1/4. And finally, the fourth must be still above that so 1/8.

1/2 * 1/4 * 1/8 = 1/64

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12 Aug 2003, 08:06
Is it 999C4 * (1/2)^4 ?

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12 Aug 2003, 08:15
Is it 999C4 * (1/2)^4 ?

Kpadma, your answer equals way over 1, with 1 being a certain probability. I don't think that passes a sanity check.

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12 Aug 2003, 11:22
AB,

Here I come charging again.

P = (997)^2 / (8 * 999 * 998 ) = (approx) 1/8

I think I may be close to the answer, but not sure it the correct answer.

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12 Aug 2003, 12:16
I think I may be close to the answer, but not sure it the correct answer.

sounds like yogi berra.
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AkamaiBrah
Former Senior Instructor, Manhattan GMAT and VeritasPrep
Vice President, Midtown NYC Investment Bank, Structured Finance IT
MFE, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, Class of 2005
MBA, Anderson School of Management, UCLA, Class of 1993

Kudos [?]: 229 [0], given: 0

GMAT Instructor
Joined: 07 Jul 2003
Posts: 769

Kudos [?]: 229 [0], given: 0

Location: New York NY 10024
Schools: Haas, MFE; Anderson, MBA; USC, MSEE

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13 Aug 2003, 08:14
AkamaiBrah wrote:
I think I may be close to the answer, but not sure it the correct answer.

sounds like yogi berra.

Any four cars have an equal chance of leaving the lot first, so we can concentrate on just one specific bunch of four cars. (Whether there are 999 or just 4 cars in the lot is irrelevant). For a given set of four cars, they can leave the lot in 4! or 24 ways, only one of which the license plate numbers will be in increasing order. Hence, the answer is 1/24.
_________________

Best,

AkamaiBrah
Former Senior Instructor, Manhattan GMAT and VeritasPrep
Vice President, Midtown NYC Investment Bank, Structured Finance IT
MFE, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, Class of 2005
MBA, Anderson School of Management, UCLA, Class of 1993

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13 Aug 2003, 09:14
A nice trick! Remember a question with six letters to be distributed among six envelopes? What is the probability of having them all distributed correctly? 1/6! Again, there is the only right case.

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13 Aug 2003, 09:14
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