jaky_nguyen wrote:
Hi
KarishmaB,
I have a question regarding to option 1: "If the researchers' projections are accurate, the island's seabird population is likely to increase during more years of the second study than it did in the first."
The predictions in study 2 don't mention Bird and cat pops changed from year to year as in study 1. Therefore, Bird and cat pops could be unchanged in study 2.
Considering my below example:
+ Study 1:
Cat: 6 yrs with increase; SB: 3 yrs increase + 3 yrs decrease
Cat: 6 years with decrease; SB: 5 yrs increase + 1 yrs decrease
+ Study 2:
Cat: 3 yrs with increase; SB: 2 yrs increase + 1 yrs decrease
Cat: 9 years with decrease; SB: 5 yrs increase + 3 yrs unchanged + 1 yrs decrease
=> while bird in study 1 increased in 8 years, bird in study 2 increased in 7 years, fewer than in study 1.
Does this mean this option could be true or false?
Hi
jaky_nguyenHappy to chip in. I believe your example goes slightly against the data given. Allow me to explain:
R(relationship) = The island's seabird population was three times as likely to
decrease from the previous year if the island's domesticated cat population
increased (even if slightly) during the same year.
So, as per your example of Study 1:Cat: 6 years with increase; SB: 6 years decrease (3 times as likely as when Cat population does not increase even slightly)
Cat: 6 years without increase (means Cat population decreases because population changes year to year); SB: Uncertain. Might still increase or decrease depending on how much Cat pop decreases. (Remember even a slight increase in Cat population makes a decrease in Seabird population 3 times as likely. So, a decrease in Cat population could still lead to a decrease in SB population, albeit at a lower likelihood.)
Now, for Study 2:The passage says that R holds. This means we still find the same relationship as above. So...
Cat: 3 years with increase; SB: All three years with decrease (SB increase during these years is out of the question)
Cat: 9 years with decrease; SB: Again uncertain, as above. Might still increase or decrease depending on how much Cat population decreases.
So, how is Statement A true?Quote:
A: If the researchers' projections are accurate, the island's seabird population is likely to increase during more years of the second study than it did in the first.
Let's start with R:The island's seabird population was three times as likely to
decrease from the previous year if the island's domesticated cat population
increased (even if slightly) during the same year.
Now, the predictions are:- R will hold
- The island's domesticated cat population will decrease during more years of the second study than it did in the first study.
Now, if we flip prediction 2, we get:The island's domesticated cat population
will increase during fewer years of the second study than it did in the first study.
Now, if we apply "R", we get:The islands seabird population
will decrease during fewer years of the second study than it did in the first study.
Now, if we flip the above sentence, we get:The islands seabird population
will increase during
more years of the second study than it did in the first study.
This is the same as choice A: If the researchers' projections are accurate, the island's seabird population is
likely to increase during
more years of the second study than it did in the first.
Hope this clarifies.
Happy learning!
-Abhishek