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# It is impossible to believe scientific predictions that a long "nuclea

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It is impossible to believe scientific predictions that a long "nuclea  [#permalink]

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01 Aug 2019, 11:09
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86% (01:55) correct 14% (01:54) wrong based on 93 sessions

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It is impossible to believe scientific predictions that a long "nuclear winter" would envelop the Earth as a result of nuclear war. Atmospheric scientists and weather experts cannot reliably and accurately predict tomorrow's weather. Yet the effect of nuclear explosions on local and worldwide atmospheric conditions must 'follow the same laws that control everyday weather changes. If the weather cannot be predicted with present knowledge, neither can a nuclear-winter scenario.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the argument made above that if scientists cannot reliably predict the daily weather, their predictions of a "nuclear winter" cannot be believed?

(A) The scientific theory of a nuclear winter uses data that is available to those who forecast the daily weather.
(B) Scientists' predictions about a nuclear winter are necessarily speculative, since they cannot be verified by harmless experimentation.
(C) Weather forecasters usually do not insist that their predictions are infallible.
(D) Scientific predictions of catastrophic natural events such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes usually have less reliability than everyday weather predictions.
(E) The scientific theory of a nuclear winter is concerned with drastic climatic changes rather than day-to-day fluctuations in the weather.

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Re: It is impossible to believe scientific predictions that a long "nuclea  [#permalink]

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05 Aug 2019, 11:16
The argument says normal weather and nuclear winter are similar, and concludes that if normal weather is unpredictable, so is nuclear winter. To weaken that argument, we need a reason to think normal weather and nuclear winter are different in some important respect. Only A and E even compare the two, and A says the two are similar (use the same data), which is the opposite of what we want, so E is the right answer.
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Re: It is impossible to believe scientific predictions that a long "nuclea   [#permalink] 05 Aug 2019, 11:16