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Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this

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Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 29 Sep 2018, 06:01
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A
B
C
D
E

Difficulty:

  95% (hard)

Question Stats:

38% (01:36) correct 62% (01:49) wrong based on 296 sessions

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Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this state reported in a survey that they knew someone who had been a victim of a crime.

Laura: But each person surveyed probably knows a hundred people. Someone will reply in the affirmative even if they know just one person out of one-hundred acquaintances who has been the victim of a crime, even a petty theft. If over half of those surveyed knew someone who was the victim of a crime, the crime rate would still be less than 1%, which is not high enough to cause alarm.

Laura's argument relies on the assumption that

A) the crime rate rarely goes above one percent.
B) Joshua is accurately reporting the statistics he presents.
C) the number of people who know someone who is a victim of crime is always higher than fifty percent of the population.
D) awareness of a crime committed against an acquaintance generates more fear than does knowledge of crime statistics.
E) normally, crime victims are not found only in certain areas of the state among certain isolated groups of people.

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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 29 Sep 2018, 07:36
Hi Harshgmat,

Answer should be E but i am not fully sure. Can you please check my reasoning. If i have done any mistake than please correct me.

A) the crime rate rarely goes above one percent. - It is already stated in the argument. "If over half of those surveyed knew someone who was the victim of a crime, the crime rate would still be less than 1%," . Even if less than half knew someone then crime rate is still less than 1%. From this, we know that crime rate will rarely goes above one percent. So this can't be the assumption.

B) Joshua is accurately reporting the statistics he presents. -Joshua does not report accurately which means that less than half know someone victim of crime (negated Joshua's argument). According to Laura statement -
If over half knows someone who has done crime, then crime rate would still be less than 1%
If less than Half knows someone who has done crime (according to this argument) , then this implies that crime rate is less than 1% . So this can't be an assumption.

C) the number of people who know someone who is a victim of crime is always higher than fifty percent of the population. - Negation is not effecting the argument and its too extreme.

D) awareness of a crime committed against an acquaintance generates more fear than does knowledge of crime statistics. - Out of scope

E) normally, crime victims are not found only in certain areas of the state among certain isolated groups of people.-Negated statement will indicate that crime rate can be less than 1 percent or can be more than 1 percent. But according to Laura statement , crime rate would be less than percent. So this can be an assumption .
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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 29 Sep 2018, 23:57
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IMO E.

Lets just say there are 1000 people in the state. Now Laura says that one person knows 100 people and if there is only 1 victim out of hundred then the percentage will be 1%. Laura further says that if more than 500 people, lets say 600, says that they know a victim then 1% of 600 will be 6 and percentage for the state will be 6/1000 <1%.

Now, lets assume that there are some 50 isolated groups of 10 people each in the state. As more than 500 people said that they know a victim so even if we assume that there is at least one victim from each isolated group then the total victims in the state will be 50 i.e., 5% (>1%).

This is exactly what the option E says that Laura has to assume that there are no such isolated groups in the state because if there are certain isolated groups then number of common victims will decrease i.e., the percentage of victims in the state will increase, causing an alarm and breaking Laura's conclusion.
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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 30 Sep 2018, 00:11
I agree that the answer is E

The question follows the same logic in this particular question.

https://gmatclub.com/forum/roland-the-a ... -9618.html

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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Oct 2018, 11:32
I am unable to understand why E is the answer. Can anybody please explain in a different/simpler way?
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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Oct 2018, 20:52
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E) normally, crime victims are not found only in certain areas of the state among certain isolated groups of people.

The first statement said that a group of people was surveyed. Opposite to the first, Laura said that that 1/2 of surveyed ppl can stand for only 1% overall .
Now we analyze E. We can understand E as an assumption on false data: the 50% of surveyed( isolated group) cannot result in state(1% overall)

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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Oct 2018, 06:58
Harshgmat wrote:
Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this state reported in a survey that they knew someone who had been a victim of a crime.

Laura: But each person surveyed probably knows a hundred people. Someone will reply in the affirmative even if they know just one person out of one-hundred acquaintances who has been the victim of a crime, even a petty theft. If over half of those surveyed knew someone who was the victim of a crime, the crime rate would still be less than 1%, which is not high enough to cause alarm.

Laura's argument relies on the assumption that

A) the crime rate rarely goes above one percent.
B) Joshua is accurately reporting the statistics he presents.
C) the number of people who know someone who is a victim of crime is always higher than fifty percent of the population.
D) awareness of a crime committed against an acquaintance generates more fear than does knowledge of crime statistics.
E) normally, crime victims are not found only in certain areas of the state among certain isolated groups of people.


I must sat this question is very difficult. I took a lot of time to decipher the intricacies of this question.
Imo E.

Basically the statistics is very straight forward in this question but the use of the same statistics is very hazy. The crux of Laura's argument is that there are people who know people who have been theft. The logic here is that the person who has been theft is known by many people. So many people are counted many times in the survey.
So there is overlapping of the people.
This same logic is used by E. E says that people are not concentrated at one place. They are spread evenly.
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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Oct 2018, 06:59
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priyamba wrote:
I am unable to understand why E is the answer. Can anybody please explain in a different/simpler way?

Hi friend,
E is basically telling us that people are spread out evenly and that many people have been counted multiple times. So this the assumption that laura uses.
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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Oct 2018, 08:31
arvind910619 wrote:
priyamba wrote:
I am unable to understand why E is the answer. Can anybody please explain in a different/simpler way?

Hi friend,
E is basically telling us that people are spread out evenly and that many people have been counted multiple times. So this the assumption that laura uses.

Thanks. That was a helpful explanation. :)
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Re: Joshua: It is cause for alarm that over half of the people in this &nbs [#permalink] 08 Oct 2018, 08:31
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