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Last year, Energy Corp's oil sales increased suddenly in the region of lower Ossamia. The Chief Financial Officer of the company explained this increase as the result of industrialization in the developing Ossamian nation of Kokua. He predicts that, consequently, trade made possible by industrialization will grow between Kokua and its Ossamian neighbors this year, leading to further increases in Energy Corp sales in the region.

Each of the following, if true, provides some support for the CFO's prediction described above EXCEPT:

A. Although non-Ossamian countries have a military and trade presence in Ossamia, their oil sales last year in the region were not significantly above normal levels.

B. Mines accessing Kokua's rich natural resources were put into operation for the first time last year.

C. Each of the Ossamian countries currently have few restrictions in place on the business that can be done with its neighboring countries.

D. One of Energy Corp's primary competitors had a tanker accident early last year that caused environmental damage in Ossamia and damaged the company's standing in the area.

E. One of Ossamia's neighbors, a developing nation, has a growing population with a reasonable amount of disposable wealth.


This is a CR Butler Question



Official Explanation



Reading the question: we review the prompt, which contains a causal argument and also a prediction. The easiest thing to do will be to strengthen and/or weaken the prediction using the most common error of causation, introducing a new, real, cause. The question is whether X really causes Y, where X is industrialization in the country and Y is an increase in oil sales.

Applying the filter: (A) doesn't even concern the relevant countries, so it's not a strengthener and may be the correct answer. Choice (B) sounds like industrialization, which would make it a mild strengthener as the cause of oil sales, and hence not the answer. Choice (C) is a mild strengthener--few restrictions will allow oil sales to grow freely. Choice (D) is a strengthener, because it will help establish that Energy Corp and not its competitors will be able to reap benefits. Choice (E) is a mild strengthener, because it suggests there is a buyer of the oil.

The correct answer is (A).
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