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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat [#permalink]

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02 Sep 2009, 14:58

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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant. (B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere. (C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models. (D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere. (E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat [#permalink]

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02 Sep 2009, 17:00

I will go with B

Reasoning :- if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, Conclusion :-they could forecast the weather with real precision.

So, to weaken this conclusion we need to find an option that creates most serious doubt .

B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere. -> these can not be quantified that is impossible to put in to in to Mathematical model at all
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat [#permalink]

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05 Sep 2009, 15:13

noboru wrote:

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant. Out of context (B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere. looks good since they prove that a model can never be made (C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models. not valid to the argument (D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere. SO??? doesnot weaken (E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat [#permalink]

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25 Apr 2011, 10:55

Another part of the question:

noboru wrote:

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated? (A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood. (B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts. (C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed. (D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time. (E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
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My dad once said to me: Son, nothing succeeds like success.

Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat [#permalink]

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25 Apr 2011, 11:22

jamifahad wrote:

Another part of the question:

noboru wrote:

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?

---- To support the meteorologists claim that they can design an accurate model forecasting the weather with precision.

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood. -- out of scope. (B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts. -- accuracy in model suffices the precision in forecasting weather. IMO OA. (C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed. -- out of scope. (D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time. -- Doesn't consider Meteorologists point. POE. (E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct. -- Supports the conclusion. Opposite answer. POE.

Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat [#permalink]

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28 Aug 2014, 19:08

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

This is good one. Conclusion :if i have an accurate weather model, i can accurately predict the weather. Assumption : Key is here in "if" clause. Implicit assumption is that i can accurately get all the components involved and predict a weather model .

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.--- Doesn't break if then relationship. OFS (B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere. ( Yes, hold onto conclusion. you can predict weather accurately, if you have a perfect model. But this model is not possible as few things can't be measured.) (C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models. no.of.computers is not point of discussion

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere. where are datapoints are collected is irrevalant to police (E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns. trap answer. ofs it kind of stregthnes.

Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat [#permalink]

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19 Jul 2016, 12:41

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