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# NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

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NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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Updated on: 22 Sep 2019, 07:01
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GMAT Prep Software Scoring Analysis and What If Scenarios

NEW ONLINE FORMAT

Couple of years ago we ran different scenarios with GMAT Prep Software to find out whether various myth about scoring algorithm were legit. You can find the results of that analysis in GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios.

On April 16, 2018, the GMAT exam shortened. The number of Quant questions were reduced by 6: from 37 to 31 and the number of Verbal questions will be reduced by 5: from 41 to 36.

Therefore, we are starting testing more or less the same scenarios with the NEW GMAT Prep Software to find out whether anything changed compared to old software.

1. What is the importance of the first 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to disprove the myth the way OG/GMAC positions it: the first 10 questions are not critical
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 10 questions incorrectly (not guess but incorrectly); then we will attempt to answer the remaining 21 questions correctly (not guess)
Result: Score - Q30. Percentile - 19th (!!!). First 10 questions WRONG. The next 21 questions CORRECT
Analysis: obviously something is not right with the myth about the first 10 questions. They appear to be very important on the Quant. If you miss the first 10 (probably not a very realistic scenario for most) you have no way of climbing out of the hole - almost all questions that were offered to me were generally easy/medium difficulty.
When simulated in the previous GMAT Prep version, this scenario resulted in Score - Q38. Percentile - 48th. So, the importance of the first 10 questions seems to increase (no surprise since now 10 questions correspond to 1/3 of the questions).
Questions: 18PS and 13 DS.

TO ENSURE THAT THE RESULT ABOVE WAS NOT AN ANOMALY, WE RAN THIS SCENARIO TWO TIMES MORE:
Result: Score - Q31. Percentile - 20th (!!!). First 10 questions WRONG. The next 21 questions CORRECT. Second attempt
Questions: 18PS and 13 DS.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "D" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 320.

Result: Score - Q29. Percentile - 16th (!!!). First 10 questions WRONG. The next 21 questions CORRECT. Third attempt
Questions: 17PS and 14 DS.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "C" this time and it resulted in the final score of V9, 2 percentile (Also, interesting becasie C gave a better result than D and E. Though it might be a simple luck). Total score: 320.

2. What is the importance of the last 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of the last 10 questions and if it equals the important of the first 10
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 21 Q questions correctly and then will answer the remaining 10 questions incorrectly (not guess but incorrectly).
Result: Score - Q49. Percentile - 75th. First 21 questions CORRECT. The final 10 questions WRONG.
Analysis: The questions were much harder this time with some new topics/types appearing on the test such as coordinate geometry/probability etc. Conclusion: the last 10 don't count as much as the first 10. This myth is True (as long as you can get the first 21 right). Please note that I have not guessed the last 10 but rather answered them incorrectly (which means I still had to solve those questions too). If you are guessing, you will most likely get a higher score.
When simulated in the previous GMAT Prep version, this scenario resulted in Score - Q50. Percentile - 92th.
Questions: 18PS and 13 DS.

3. What is the importance of the middle 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of the middle 10 questions and see how it compares to the results of the previous 2 experiments
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 11 Q questions correctly; then I will answer incorrectly the following 10 questions, and will answer the remaining 10 questions correctly.
Result: Score - Q49. Percentile - 75th. First 11 questions CORRECT. Next 10 INCORRECT. The final 10 questions CORRECT.
Analysis: The questions were not much easier than in the second scenario above even though I have made 10 consecutive mistakes.
When simulated in the previous GMAT Prep version, this scenario resulted in Score - Q49. Percentile - 85th.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 440.
Questions: 17PS and 14 DS.

4. What is the penalty if I miss every third question?

Experiment: I will try to test a scenario in which a test takers answers every third question incorrectly (e.g. 3, 6, 9, etc. Thus giving themselves an extra 2 mins on quant). This scenario will simulate someone who takes 3 mins instead of 2 per question and then guesses every third question. Please note that this is the worst case scenario (we do not get any guesses right)
Methodology: Every 3rd questions answered incorrectly. So, 10 incorrect and 21 correct answers.
Result: Score - Q48. Percentile - 69th. Every third questions WRONG.
Analysis: Slightly lower score than in the case of missing the last 10 questions.
When simulated in the old Desktop GMAT Prep version, this scenario resulted in Score - Q49. Percentile - 85th. More details here
Questions: 18PS and 13 DS.

5. Not Answering Last 10 Questions (ran out of time) vs. 10 Wrong Answers

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of answering questions in time.
Methodology: we will attempt answering the first 21 questions correctly and then wait till the time run out leaving the last 10 questions unanswered.
Result: Score - Q39. Percentile - 37th vs. Q49. Percentile - 75th. First 21 questions CORRECT. Next 10 NOT ATTEMPTED.
Analysis: I got lower score than in scenario 2 (First 21 questions CORRECT. The final 10 questions WRONG: Score - Q49. Percentile - 75th). This might indicate that answering all questions, finishing a test is very important. So, it's better finish the test and answer all the final questions, even incorrectly than not finish the test and leave final questions unanswered. Only scenario 1 (missing first 10 questions) gave a lower score than this case.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "A" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 370 (8th percentile).
Questions: 12PS and 9DS.

6. Importance of DS questions

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance DS vs PS.
Methodology: we will attempt answering the first 10 questions correctly and then miss all DS questions, while answering PS correctly.
Result: Score - Q50. Percentile - 86th. First 10 questions CORRECT and then missed 10 DS while answering 11 PS questions correctly.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "B" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 460 (19th percentile).
Questions: 18PS and 13DS.

7. Importance of PS questions

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance DS vs PS.
Methodology: we will attempt answering the first 10 questions correctly and then miss all PS questions, while answering DS correctly.
Result: Score - Q49. Percentile - 75th. First 10 questions CORRECT and then missed 11 PS while answering 10 DS questions correctly.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "D" this time and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1 percentile. Total score: 460 (19th percentile).
Questions: 18PS and 13DS.

Attachment:

mb13.png [ 464.13 KiB | Viewed 78215 times ]

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Originally posted by Bunuel on 04 Jul 2018, 02:06.
Last edited by MikeScarn on 22 Sep 2019, 07:01, edited 16 times in total.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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Updated on: 01 Aug 2018, 12:20
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New Format - Verbal What-If Scenarios

Last year when Vercules ran the what-if scenarios in this thread we found some very interesting results. Not that the GMAT has changed (or just reduced in number and minutes), I decided to make some changes. I thought of doing things in quarters (9 out of 36 questions form a quarter).

1. Importance of the first 9 questions

In the first part of the test, I have tried to see what happens if we miss the first quarter entirely (i.e. the first 9 out of the 36 questions answered wrongly while answering correctly the others). To check for experimental questions and other question level based biases I ran the scenario thrice.

Experiment - GMAC says the first 10 questions are as important as the other questions. We test that theory. We have changed it to 9 because we want to take into account the reduced number of questions in the test.

Methodology - Run 3 instances of A) missing the first 9 questions . B) answering the next 27 questions correctly.

Result

- V28, V29, V30

Analysis - To make this analysis more effective, let's first check the scenarios:

First Scenario - Missed the first 9 questions - 4 CRs, 4 SCs and 1 RC - V29 - 57th Percentile
Second Scenario - Missed the first 9 questions - 5 RCs, 3 SCs and 1 CR - V28 - 52nd Percentile
Third Scenario - Missed the first 9 questions - 2 RC, 3 SC and 4 CRs - V30 -59th Percentile

It appears that there's no pattern to when the first RC will appear. In the second test, the RC was as early as the third question and as a result it made me miss the entire RC, which, I think, contributed to the score decline more than the other two tests. Also, while the average difficulty of the test was pretty easy/medium, I did see a few questions with 35%-55% difficulty on GMAT Club which will easily include them in the 700-800 level category.

Last year missing the first 11 questions resulted in the V22 (27th percentile)

Importance of the last 9 questions

Experiment In the second part, I decided to see what happens when you mark every question in the test, save the last 9 questions, correctly. Not to my surprise, I got a V40 or above every single time.

Methodology Run 3 instances of missing the last 9 questions on purpose but everything else marked correctly.

Result V40, V42, V42

Analysis In the first scenario the 9 questions I missed were - 1 entire RC (3 questions), 4 SC and 2 CR. In the second scenario, I missed 6 RC questions each. Clearly, even though RC questions are more on the test, missing SC and CR questions wrongly makes a bigger dent in the score.

Sidenote Last year, missing the 11 questions at the end resulted in a score of V38. So it is definitely a good news for test takers

3. Guessing SC but marking everything else correctly

This time we did a sectional test to see what happens if I guess all SC questions but mark everything else correctly.

Methodology: Mark CR and RC questions correctly and mark C for all SC questions.

Result: V37 with 11 questions answered wrongly.

Guessing RC and marking everything else correctly

In similar fashion, I wanted to check what happens when we guess RC but keep the SC and CR answers correct. Surprising results follow!

Methodology: Mark CR and SC correctly but mark all RC questions C.

Result - SHOCKING V34

Analysis: It is pretty clear that RC matters a whole lot more now than it used to. I would advise with caution against using this strategy. Practice your RCs and go well prepared.
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Originally posted by souvik101990 on 04 Jul 2018, 02:11.
Last edited by bb on 01 Aug 2018, 12:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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30 Aug 2018, 06:45
6

PS vs. DS Question Importance - First Post Updated

Scenario 6: Weight & Importance of DS questions

Experiment: We will try to analyze the weight and importance of DS vs PS in terms of final Quant Score
Methodology: Answer the first 10 questions correctly and then miss all DS questions, while answering PS correctly.

Result: Score - Q50. Percentile - 86th. First 10 questions CORRECT and then missed 10 DS while answering 11 PS questions correctly.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "B" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 460 (19th percentile).
Questions: 18PS and 13DS.

Scenario 7: Weight & Importance of PS questions

Experiment: We will try to analyze the weight and importance of DS vs PS.
Methodology: Answer the first 10 questions correctly and then miss all PS questions, while answering DS correctly.

Result: Score - Q49. Percentile - 75th. First 10 questions CORRECT and then missed 11 PS while answering 10 DS questions correctly.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "D" this time and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1 percentile. Total score: 460 (19th percentile).
Questions: 18PS and 13DS.

Conclusion: It seems there is no or little difference in terms of weight that GMAC places on the DS vs. PS questions. Both Scenarios resulted into a very close score: Q50 with 10 DS wrong and Q49 with 11 PS wrong.

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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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16 Jul 2018, 22:29
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New scenario added: 5. Not Answering Last 10 Questions (ran out of time) vs. 10 Wrong Answers
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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25 Jul 2018, 19:55
5
mcelroytutoring, I've got the mix below in my last 5 GMAT Prep tests:

#SC #CR #RC
14 9 13
13 9 14
13 9 13
13 9 14
14 9 13
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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20 Jul 2018, 05:21
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teaserbae wrote:

Hey souvik101990 can you please give more what if scenarios in verbal

Hi I am running three new scenarios today.

1. Missing the last 9 questions.
2. Missing the middle 9 questions.
3. Guessing all RCs and marking everything else correctly. Should be up in 12 hours, so stay tuned
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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31 May 2019, 07:49
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OmerPelman wrote:
The likely conclusion is that this is a flaw in the GMATprep software. Because if not, then they've granted us about twenty minutes of extra thinking time, just by guessing our way through every DS question after question #10. Since timing is at least one of the, if not the, most important hurdles on a standardized test, this means Pearson have allowed a terrifically gaping wide black hole of a hack to their algorithm. And given the standard warning in the Guide, I must say they would have to be terrific fools to do so.

OmerPelman wrote:
An astounding hack, Sir! It means you can ignore all DS after Q10, which must represent a saving of approx twenty minutes. With that much extra time, you could nearly guarantee 100% correct in PS.

This is a hell of a hack in the prep software. I am at the edge of my seat to know if this works on the official test!

There is no sense in which this is a 'hack'. Anyone capable of getting their first 10 questions right, and every subsequent PS question right (even granted roughly 50% more time to do so) is almost certainly a Q51 level test taker. That person would simply be capping their score at a Q49 or Q50 by guessing at their later DS questions.

Many people seem to believe that, given extra time, test takers could get all of their questions right. This is demonstrably false. Test takers who believe this should simply look back over their diagnostic tests, either timing themselves per question, or using a test that records time per question, and examine their performance on those questions on which they spent the most time. I've looked over hundreds of practice test results, and people tend to have a hit rate in the 30%-40% range on those questions where they spend 4+ minutes. In math, if you're going to see how to solve a problem, you're almost always going to see how to solve it quickly. If you don't see that path to a solution early on, you might never see it, which is why when people spend 5 minutes on a question, their answer ends up being essentially a guess anyway, most of the time.

That's not only true from my own experience, looking at test taker performance. It's also proven to be true in a large scale study:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf ... .tb01905.x

That study gave thousands of test takers two GRE Quant tests, and gave test takers 50% more time on the second test. At the time, GRE Quant scores ranged from 200 to 800. I think most people would expect that, given 50% more time, their score would increase significantly - I'd bet most test takers would guess their GMAT score would go up by 50 to 100 points if they had 50% more time. But that's not what happens. In that study, with lots of extra time, GRE Quant scores increased from an average of 664 to 671, so not even by ten points. And the effect is greatest for low-level test takers, and smallest for high-level ones, so the test taker trying to use the 'hack' you describe is gaining almost nothing from the extra time they'd have, while at the same time sacrificing good answers to a lot of questions.

The above is one reason why the oft-repeated "spend a lot of time on the first ten questions" is such terrible advice. The extra time you spend helps you far less than you might think early in the test, and running short on time will hurt you far more than you might expect (if you believe the person giving this advice) on later questions.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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12 Jul 2018, 10:39
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The lesson of this fable is that you must definitely focus on the first 10 questions, even if those take your extra time, resulting in guessing, hence making mistakes in the last part of the test.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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29 Jul 2018, 09:53
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Hero8888 wrote:
Hey guys,

Here are my results of 2 mock tests. I don't understand the paradox: in attempt with lower result all 1-20 are correct (theoretically having higher impact). The ratio of correct/incorrect answers is almost the same in both attempts, differing in 1 incorrect answer only. Please see attached files.

Any thoughts?

I see that you have 6 consecutive questions wrong in the middle of the test and then also in the end, which brings your score down badly. But the questions marked wrong in the second CAT are well distributed. and those that you marked consecutive wrong in the very end kept you below V40.

Marking questions correct in the start is very beneficial and after that we need to attempt the rest of the test in such a way that we do not mark so many questions wrong in a row.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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30 May 2019, 10:36
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Bunuel wrote:

5. Not Answering Last 10 Questions (ran out of time) vs. 10 Wrong Answers

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of answering questions in time.
Methodology: we will attempt answering the first 21 questions correctly and then wait till the time run out leaving the last 10 questions unanswered.
Result: Score - Q39. Percentile - 37th vs. Q49. Percentile - 75th. First 21 questions CORRECT. Next 10 NOT ATTEMPTED.
Analysis: I got lower score than in scenario 2 (First 21 questions CORRECT. The final 10 questions WRONG: Score - Q49. Percentile - 75th). This might indicate that answering all questions, finishing a test is very important. So, it's better finish the test and answer all the final questions, even incorrectly than not finish the test and leave final questions unanswered.

There's a GMAC research report describing precisely how the test behaves in these two scenarios (when it is better to guess to finish the test, and when it is better to leave questions unanswered). In a couple of places (older editions of the OG and an interview with the test developer), they've described the penalty for not finishing the test as a 'proportional' penalty. Based on the one numerical example the OG provided, I always assumed that if you answered, say, 35 out of 37 questions, and left the last two unanswered, they used your score estimate after 35 questions, and multiplied it by 35/37. That's hard to test though, because there's no way to know what your score is after, say, 25 questions, so no way to work out how big the penalty is on any given test. If you answer as you did -- getting the first 21 questions right -- your score is not a Q51 inside the algorithm. Internally, the scoring scale goes beyond Q51 (internally, they track how many standard deviations above average you are, so the scale is theoretically unbounded). Scores above a Q51 are capped at Q51 because that's the top of the scale. So there's no easy way to tell if your score was simply multiplied by 21/31 in your experiment, or if they've softened the penalty a bit for not finishing, or if the proportional penalty is applied to something other than the Q6-Q51 score.

The GMAC research report about guessing vs not finishing concluded that for higher level test takers, it is almost always going to be best to finish the test, even if that means guessing randomly. In part that's because high scores suffer most from proportional penalties. But it's also because higher level test takers who guess at the end of a test are normally guessing at very hard questions, because the test is adaptive. And guessing at hard questions doesn't hurt you much. For a test taker who is below average, a proportional penalty hurts much less, but a guess hurts more, because that guess is much more likely to be on an easy question, and getting easy questions wrong is very harmful to your score. The reason GMAC can't give an exact answer about this question is because the test is not perfectly adaptive, and everyone's test is different - if the Q41 test taker guesses at two questions at the end, and those questions both happen to be easy, those guesses might hurt more than not finishing. That's unlikely though -- usually those questions will be medium-hard -- so guessing will be better most of the time.

From GMAC's own research, the best practice is likely to be this, speaking probabilistically: if you are a higher level test taker (Q40+ say) you should finish the test no matter what you need to do, even if that requires you to guess randomly. If you're somewhere near average (Q27-Q40, say) it probably won't make a big difference, but I'd still suggest trying to finish (though don't panic if you can't - it probably hasn't hurt you much). If you are a below average test taker (Q6-Q27) it almost certainly makes a negligible difference what you do, and in fact it might be better to not finish, if your only choices are 'guess randomly' or 'don't finish the test'. Of course the best thing to do is to finish every question, answering as well as you can, so this only applies to people who find themselves in a test situation where they won't be able to do that.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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04 Jul 2018, 19:19
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souvik101990, will you be analyzing other scenarios (as Vercules did) with the new format tests? Such as missing the last 9, questions, missing the middle 9 questions, etc.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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17 Jul 2018, 08:05
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Hi
I want to know about the outcome when one performs exceptionally in some sections but fails abysmally in other section.
The cases such as :
1. SC, CR > 80+, RC<30
2. RC, CR > 80+, SC<30
3. SC, RC> 80+, CR<30

It will be useful for the test takers to know GMAT better.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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30 Aug 2018, 09:47
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First off, hats off for doing all this stress testing, on your own dime, and then sharing! However there is only one of two possible consequences to be derived from your experiments.

The likely conclusion is that this is a flaw in the GMATprep software. Because if not, then they've granted us about twenty minutes of extra thinking time, just by guessing our way through every DS question after question #10. Since timing is at least one of the, if not the, most important hurdles on a standardized test, this means Pearson have allowed a terrifically gaping wide black hole of a hack to their algorithm. And given the standard warning in the Guide, I must say they would have to be terrific fools to do so.

I wonder whether there is anyone out there willing to drop 250usd to find out.

I wonder if it will be me!
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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07 Oct 2018, 10:28
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Brutal. GMAT, in my opinion, doesn't give you enough chances to redeem yourself after you miss an "easy" question, which is likely what happened to you.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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10 Jan 2019, 02:48
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This analysis is GOLD!!!
Was continuously scoring V35-V37 in GMAT Prep, Manhattan and Veritas Tests.
Took the GMAT late December and scored a V40.
And I think this was mainly because of my time-management. Did not leave any question, Left a couple of questions in the middle to balance the time.

Can't thank souvik101990 and Bunuel enough.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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19 Feb 2019, 16:42
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What about a scenario for verbal in that you miss every 3rd question (Get 2 right, miss 1, get 2 right, miss one etc)? (Like Bunnel's Quant Test)
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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30 May 2019, 10:07
2
Many of the conclusions drawn in this thread are potentially misleading. I'll try to point out where, but it will take me a few posts. Importantly:

OmerPelman wrote:
You probably know that their algorithm is top-secret

This is not really true - the algorithm uses a 3-parameter logistic (IRT) model, something GMAC has confirmed many times in their published reports. Now, anyone designing a 3-parameter IRT test is free to set certain technical parameters how they like, and no one besides the GMAT test developers will know how those have been set, but those parameters mostly have to do with question selection, and not with scoring, and they aren't very important. The other information that is secret, and which prevents anyone from 'reverse engineering' their score from their right and wrong answers on a given test, are the statistics associated with each test question -- the exact difficulty level of each question, for example (and the other two of the three parameters the algorithm uses - what are known as the 'discrimination' and 'pseudo-guessing' parameters for each question). But the scoring algorithm itself is just based on probability theory, and its mathematical basis is explained in countless academic articles, and even on wikipedia.

Knowing the mathematics behind the scoring algorithm will not, however, give a test taker any advantage whatsoever on the GMAT. For that reason (and because you'd need an undergraduate foundation in statistics, probability theory and calculus to even begin to make sense of it) I do not recommend any test taker learn about the algorithm. It seems many people believe, possibly because it is poorly explained in many prep books, that there should be some way to "outsmart" the algorithm, that there might be some strategy like "spend a lot of time on the first ten questions" that will maximize your score. There is no such strategy. It's exactly like a standard multiple choice test: I can tell you the 'algorithm' I will use to grade a standard test ("I will count how many right answers you have"). Knowing that 'algorithm' doesn't help you to do any better on the test. You'd still want to answer the questions correctly that you know how to answer, and not waste time on the ones you don't. The GMAT scoring algorithm is more complicated than 'count your right answers', but the best strategy is the same: answer what you can, and don't invest time when it won't lead to a right answer.

That said, if you do know how the algorithm works mathematically, you can draw certain important conclusions about the consequences of certain response patterns, and so you can draw the most probable interpretations from the studies presented in this thread. So when I have time over the next few days, I'll try to point out where I think people have arrived at incorrect conclusions from these studies.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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20 Jun 2019, 07:14
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bb wrote:
Thanks Ian! Fully agree with you.

So the assumption of your statement or perhaps my inference of it, is that Test 6 is made up of mostly easy questions. Which therefore means that comparing one's results from Test 6 to other tests, such as 1 or 2 which have access to a deeper DB of questions, is not apples to apples comparison. Moreover, Test 6 also a diff experience from the Official GMAT which is more like Tests 1 & 2.

I haven't used those tests much, but my understanding is that those tests try not to deliver repeat questions, so a high-level test taker can exhaust the hard questions by the time she takes test #6. But the medium-level test taker probably won't exhaust those questions, so test #6 won't seem easy to everyone. If that's wrong, I'm sure someone will correct me!

For a high-level test taker, comparing a test with mostly easy questions and a test with mostly hard questions is not an "apples to apples comparison" if you're asking "what score will I get with 3 wrong answers?" But it is an apples to apples comparison if your question is simply "what score will I get?" The algorithm knows how often test takers at every level answer each question correctly. So the algorithm might know that a Q49 level test taker gets 500-level questions right 90% of the time, and 750-level questions right 50% of the time. If a test contained 31 questions, all at the 500-level, then someone who answers roughly 90% of those correctly will get a Q49. If the test contained 31 750-level questions, someone who answers roughly 50% of them correctly would get a Q49.

The one important difference in those two scenarios is that the test can be much more certain about a test taker's precise level the more questions it delivers around that test taker's level. So if a test delivers mostly 500-level questions to a Q49 level test taker, that test taker will get almost everything right. The algorithm will know "this test taker is really good" but it won't be sure exactly how good. The test might say "this person is a Q49" but if you could ask the algorithm "what margin of error would you attach to that score?" the algorithm would give a fairly large margin of error. It would give a much smaller margin of error if it could deliver that Q49 level test taker a lot of 700-level questions. That's why the test adapts - the algorithm can give more precise scores the more questions it delivers around your level. And one consequence of that: a Q49 level test taker will see bigger score fluctuations on an easy test than on a hard one, because even one good or bad guess will make a big difference on an easy test.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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Updated on: 12 Aug 2019, 22:47
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fudetra wrote:
Assuming that my incorrect answers are evenly distributed and the difficulty level is at normal level as same as other test-takers, are my estimated scores below correct?

0-1 : 51
2-5 : 50
6-10: 49

6 : 42
8 : 40
10 : 38
12 : 35

In short, to get a 700+ (Q50, V36) I need to maintain maximum 5 incorrect in Quant and 10 incorrect in Verbal?

Here are some estimates based on the hundreds of student ESRs from actual GMATs (not the GMATPrep software, which has a much different scoring algorithm) that I've seen thus far.

VERBAL (30 counted questions per test)

51 = 0 wrong
48 = 1 wrong
47 = 2 or 3 wrong
46 = 3 wrong
42 = 5 wrong
40 = 7-10 wrong
35 = as few as 8 wrong or as many as 12 wrong, depending on where you get them wrong (see below)
etc.

QUANT (28 counted questions per test)

0-2 wrong: 51 (96%)
1-6 wrong: 50 (86%)
4-7 wrong: 49 (75%)
5-8 wrong: 48 (69%)
6-9 wrong: 47 (63%)
6-10 wrong: 46 (60%)
7-11 wrong: 45 (57%)
7-12 wrong: 44 (52%)
etc.

Sources: here and here and here and here

-Brian

Originally posted by mcelroytutoring on 12 Aug 2019, 20:28.
Last edited by mcelroytutoring on 12 Aug 2019, 22:47, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios  [#permalink]

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04 Jul 2018, 03:24
1
Awesome Bunuel. I think this is what most of the candidates must be waiting for!
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Re: NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios   [#permalink] 04 Jul 2018, 03:24

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# NEW FORMAT GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

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