Nilabh_s wrote:
Bunuel wrote:
11. Certain bowl contains 5 red marbles and 3 blue marbles only. One by one, every marble is drawn at random and without replacement. What is the probability that the seventh marble drawn is NOT blue?
A. 7/8
B. 3/4
C. 2/3
D. 5/8
E. 3/8
Basically we need to find the probability that the seventh marble drawn is red (so not blue).
Now, the initial probability of drawing red marble is 5/8. Without knowing the other results, the probability of drawing red marble will not change for ANY successive draw: second, third, fourth, ..., seventh. Thus the probability that the seventh marble is red is 5/8.
The same for blue marble: the probability of drawing blue marble is 3/8, the probability that for instance the 8th marble drawn is blue is still 3/8. There is simply no reason to believe WHY is any draw different from another (provided we don't know the other results).
Answer: D.
Hi Bunuel,
Why is the probability not changing? If we keep withdrawing marbles withoout replacing then following things are changing:-
1. total no. of marble (hence the denominator in probability)
2. No. of Red marbles left.
3. No. of blue marbles left.
Consider this: there are 8 cards, 5 spades, 3 hearts. What is the probability that the first card you pick will be spade? Clearly 5/8.
Now next question, suppose I throw away three cards at random, not telling you which cards I thrown away. What is the probability NOW that you pick a spade out of 5 remaining cards? I've just reduced the sample from which you pick, but does the probability changed? WHY should it change?
Another question, the same cards 5 spades and 3 hearts: I say that you can pick one card but only out of randomly selected 5 cards. What is the probability that the card you pick will be spade?
There is no difference in ALL above cases and the probability will remain 5/8. If it changed, increased (or decreased), it would mean that the probability of picking heart on the other hand decreased (or increased). Why would it?
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