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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts' prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.

B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.

C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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fozzzy wrote:
Can someone provide a detailed analysis on this one. Thanks!


Vaccine's drawbacks:
I)It is too expensive
II)It is not effective until a month after vaccination

Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

What answer are we looking for? It will be something that will eliminate a current defect of the vaccine, or will be an advantage that will balance everything: like "has been found that the vaccine makes the cattle immune to every type of disease and increases its reproductivity rate"(I'm making this up).

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
Irrelevant.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
Maybe... this could be seen as an advantage to use the vaccine, because revenues for the farmers could be lower if they do not use it. We can keep it for now...
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
Irrelevant because it does not offer an argument like those described above.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
This is just a fact that has no impact on the prediction.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
This seems good as well because undermines the drawback #2. If we can predict an outbreak two months before, the vaccine (that takes one month to be effective) could be used more than today.

B and E are the contenders. I would look at the key words there to determine the correct answer.
B unaffected countries often refuse<== so the fact that B presents has already happened before, so it's not something that could change the current scenario and increase the use of the vaccine.
E. Recently published research<== this is a game changer. Recently new data has been released, so the situation described by the argument is actually changed.

E is the best answer
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
- Not useful

B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
- That might have prompted the farmers to use the vaccine a long time back, why wait ? B is out.

C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
- Out of scope

D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
- It now enables the use of the vaccine ecnomical since you need to use it only after the climate patterns that leads to the outbreak. So farmers do not have to use it routinely, but rather, at certain times of the year.
E it is.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.


My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Last edited by Zarrolou on 26 Jul 2013, 09:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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Its E. "Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

This research can predict when a Rift Valley fever will break out and give more than a month's warning in advance. ("It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination")
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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I suspect we can argue about this one till the cows come home. The main assertion is : "experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?"
. Note NEXT FEW YEARS. This is why I deemed A incorrect. A does not provide any support for the next few years. A has been happening forever, so why all of a sudden in the next few years the vaccine demand will grow ? because of new research as described in E.

What is the source of this question ?


notahug wrote:
My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.


Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.


I picked D

i would like to know why is not D and the real level of this question based on your judgment. I supposed the tag

Thanks
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart.

Ok this is a fact. Outbraks can occur every 4 years as well as after 10 years

When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle.

Ok. A fact, 1000 cows will die

A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used.

The vaccine ir rarely use. Unitll now we do not know why is not used

It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little.

The vaccine has costs and is better use before an outbreak

Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

here is something that is weird: basically the argument says that the vaccine is unuseful but its use will increase over time. We need something that explain clearly THAT

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.

Who carrier the outbreal is irrelevant. It doen't explain WHY there will be an increase in the use of the vaccine

B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.

What the other country do is not so relevant for our discrepancy

C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

Production and demand is completely irrelevant here.

D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

This seems to me a statistic rather a good explanation why we will use more vaccine inthe next future. Doesn't seem good as option


E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

OKKKK. A research (so something that is reliable) sayas a prediction. So if this is true (and we know that is true because we cannot disprove the information given) we will have an increase in the use of the vaccine as prevention

E is the answer
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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mohnish104 wrote:
I don't seem to be understanding the language used in E. What I followed was that, certain climatic condition follow 'after' the outbreak. Is it before or after I am unable to follow.


Yeah, the wording is especially designed to cause confusion :-). But option E is correct.

You would generally say
storms follow humid conditions
than
humid conditions are followed by storms. Both are correct though second one is wordy.

Option E says, identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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New post 03 Apr 2008, 04:02
haha thanks sondenso .. FYI its not a mouse - its a daemon.

sondenso wrote:
bsd_lover wrote:
Its E. "Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

This research can predict when a Rift Valley fever will break out and give more than a month's warning in advance. ("It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination")


Mouse,

You ran quickly! :lol:
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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New post 03 Apr 2008, 07:10
i Too AGree with E.

but more importantly i would like to see why your american friend had an argument over this. :)

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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New post 03 Apr 2008, 07:24
Neochronic wrote:
i Too AGree with E.

but more importantly i would like to see why your american friend had an argument over this. :)

regards,
Neo


Because he said A, but I come to E :lol:

He argued that farmers can not use insecticide, therefore they must use vaccine otherwise no ways to protect their cattles. What's wrong with this reasoning???

Besides, E just says that the outbreak will occur in two-five months, yes it just ensures that if the farmers use the vaccine, there will be enough time for vaccine to prove its effectiveness. Nothing can ensures that the farmers will use it.

I dont have strong counter-argument for his reasoning!

Besides, OA is A :help2
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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New post 03 Apr 2008, 09:05
BKK145 nice to see you..hope you are back in full force :twisted: :evil: :)

I went with A..

A says..you cant control this fever by insecticides alone..that means farmers will have to use the vacine more often...imagine if Farmers used inseticide to kill the mosquitos ..and if insecticides worked..then they wouldnt use the vacines ..A strengthens it..
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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New post 03 Apr 2008, 09:22
A has less to do with the argument as a whole than E. I still go for E.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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New post 03 Apr 2008, 11:44
I just searched and it seems that the OA is E..

can someone pls tell us the source of this question
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East [#permalink]

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New post 25 May 2008, 16:43
Looks to be E,

if the outbreak is predictable, then there will be more usage of the vaccine.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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New post 27 Aug 2012, 15:11
rjacobsMGMAT wrote:
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.



Pretty Clear :)
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr [#permalink]

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New post 27 Aug 2012, 15:39
Quote:
Level is probably about a 500-600.


Really? 500-600? i had to read some sentences twice to understand them. it was not very difficult to reason though.

my reasoning for E was that:

Conclu - Experts predict use of vaccine will increase.
reasons for not increasing
1. Cost
2. one month validity

so, before I read the answers, I thought, either someone should have found a cheaper vaccine or the validity would increase by more than a month.

A-D were nowhere near. E, though not one of what I had guess, was on similar lines. So, I concluded E.
Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Afr   [#permalink] 27 Aug 2012, 15:39

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