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# Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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23 Sep 2004, 17:34
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts' prediction?

(A) Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.

(B) When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.

(C) It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

(D) Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

(E) Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

Last edited by hazelnut on 01 Oct 2017, 04:58, edited 1 time in total.
Edited the question.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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24 Sep 2004, 00:43
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A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
- Not useful

B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
- That might have prompted the farmers to use the vaccine a long time back, why wait ? B is out.

C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
- Out of scope

D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.

E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.
- It now enables the use of the vaccine ecnomical since you need to use it only after the climate patterns that leads to the outbreak. So farmers do not have to use it routinely, but rather, at certain times of the year.
E it is.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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02 Apr 2008, 18:55
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Last edited by Zarrolou on 26 Jul 2013, 09:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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02 Apr 2008, 19:26
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Its E. "Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

This research can predict when a Rift Valley fever will break out and give more than a month's warning in advance. ("It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination")

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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03 Apr 2008, 07:24
Neochronic wrote:
i Too AGree with E.

but more importantly i would like to see why your american friend had an argument over this.

regards,
Neo

Because he said A, but I come to E

He argued that farmers can not use insecticide, therefore they must use vaccine otherwise no ways to protect their cattles. What's wrong with this reasoning???

Besides, E just says that the outbreak will occur in two-five months, yes it just ensures that if the farmers use the vaccine, there will be enough time for vaccine to prove its effectiveness. Nothing can ensures that the farmers will use it.

I dont have strong counter-argument for his reasoning!

Besides, OA is A

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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03 Apr 2008, 09:05
BKK145 nice to see you..hope you are back in full force

I went with A..

A says..you cant control this fever by insecticides alone..that means farmers will have to use the vacine more often...imagine if Farmers used inseticide to kill the mosquitos ..and if insecticides worked..then they wouldnt use the vacines ..A strengthens it..

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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03 Apr 2008, 15:22
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I suspect we can argue about this one till the cows come home. The main assertion is : "experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?"
. Note NEXT FEW YEARS. This is why I deemed A incorrect. A does not provide any support for the next few years. A has been happening forever, so why all of a sudden in the next few years the vaccine demand will grow ? because of new research as described in E.

What is the source of this question ?

notahug wrote:
My American friend and I have been arguing for 2 days...Pls explain your answer!

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?
A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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25 May 2008, 16:43
Looks to be E,

if the outbreak is predictable, then there will be more usage of the vaccine.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 11:51
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

I picked D

i would like to know why is not D and the real level of this question based on your judgment. I supposed the tag

Thanks
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 13:56
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Expert's post
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 15:11
rjacobsMGMAT wrote:
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.

Pretty Clear
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 15:39
Quote:
Level is probably about a 500-600.

Really? 500-600? i had to read some sentences twice to understand them. it was not very difficult to reason though.

my reasoning for E was that:

Conclu - Experts predict use of vaccine will increase.
reasons for not increasing
1. Cost
2. one month validity

so, before I read the answers, I thought, either someone should have found a cheaper vaccine or the validity would increase by more than a month.

A-D were nowhere near. E, though not one of what I had guess, was on similar lines. So, I concluded E.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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27 Aug 2012, 16:00
akrish1982 wrote:
Quote:
Level is probably about a 500-600.

Really? 500-600? i had to read some sentences twice to understand them. it was not very difficult to reason though.

my reasoning for E was that:

Conclu - Experts predict use of vaccine will increase.
reasons for not increasing
1. Cost
2. one month validity

so, before I read the answers, I thought, either someone should have found a cheaper vaccine or the validity would increase by more than a month.

A-D were nowhere near. E, though not one of what I had guess, was on similar lines. So, I concluded E.

I agree with this level because for me the argument was straighforward. Simply, I picked the wrong question and sometimes (rarely) I do not understand my mistake.

This question came after a drill of 50 CR in a row.........may be I was tired
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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28 Aug 2012, 03:32
rjacobsMGMAT wrote:
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.

IMO none of the above choices is the correct option. A - D can be ruled out completely. Per option E it says some identifiable climatic conditions are followed by an outbreak. Does that not mean that these climate conditions come after the outbreak not before? If they are coming after then how can we detect this outbreak earlier?
"E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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12 Sep 2012, 21:36
sanki779 wrote:
rjacobsMGMAT wrote:
This is an "explain the discrepancy" question (or as I sometimes call them, "explain the surprise"):

PREMISE 1: RVF vaccine too expensive to use all the time (more expensive than damage caused)
PREMISE 2: RVF vaccine needs to be used 1 mo+ before outbreak occurs
EXPECTATION: RVF vaccine will not be used
SURPRISE: RVF vaccine will be used soon anyway

Our task: Figure out how the premises AND the surprise could all be true at once. To do that, we need a way to predict the outbreak (Premise 1), and to do so at least 1 month in advance (Premise 2). (E) demonstrates very nicely how this is possible, touching on both premises, and also noting that the study is recent thereby explaining why we didn't figure this out before. (D) is a sad story, but doesn't tell us how these farmers could afford the vaccine OR how they could predict an outbreak, so it doesn't connect to either premise.

Level is probably about a 500-600.

IMO none of the above choices is the correct option. A - D can be ruled out completely. Per option E it says some identifiable climatic conditions are followed by an outbreak. Does that not mean that these climate conditions come after the outbreak not before? If they are coming after then how can we detect this outbreak earlier?
"E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever."

Nope, the option says the climatic conditions were followed by the outbreak of the Rift Valley fever.
Hence , this makes option E correct .
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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13 Sep 2012, 01:57
carcass wrote:
Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart. When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle. A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used. It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little. Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

I picked D

i would like to know why is not D and the real level of this question based on your judgment. I supposed the tag

Thanks

Prediction - that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Anything which strengthen the prediction is our answer.

A. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides. (Irrelevant - Eliminate)
B. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak. (Irrelevant - Eliminate)
C. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand. (Close – Keep it for now)
D. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever. (Weakens the prediction - Eliminate)
E. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever. (This is our answer because if we know the time when the outbreak is going to happen we can be prepared with the vaccine, thus increasing the production)
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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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24 Sep 2012, 10:53
notahug wrote:
From 32 Tests Set. I am practicing on it. But my friend said that do not believe 100% on this set's answers. In fact I discover several mistakes in this Set.

The OA is correct , its
[Reveal] Spoiler:
E

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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24 Sep 2012, 11:23
I got stuck up with A and B
but eliminating B is very easy since nothing in the argument is mentioned about the revenue from livestock business or any such issue which can give a clue for this answer to be true.
But keeping in mind the principle of strengthening it becomes easy to go with A.
Look for an option that removes the possibility of another alternative.
Concl Consumption of vaccine will increase .........Ask why to it......If 2nd system eradicate the fever is not helpful......Hence Option A wins
E can be eliminated at first sight as it says about climatic condition the impact of which is not at all discussed in the argument.

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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27 Oct 2012, 04:38
Decode this part of premise and you will be through " it is not effective until a month after vaccination"
<< Vaccine is effective only after a month of vaccination, Hence to make it effective, livestock should be vaccinated atleast a month in advance of the outbreak, But "do we know the time of vaccination">>>

Conclusion : Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.
We need to support

If the use of vaccine will increse that means both the prob i.e. the cost or the time is going to be eliminated or either
Look for an option that solves the problem

E says that the 5 months before the identifiable climate hence the time is known

Hence E supports

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever [#permalink]

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27 Oct 2012, 04:39
For sure this is not 500 - 600 level prob its above 600 level

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Re: Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, sever   [#permalink] 27 Oct 2012, 04:39

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