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Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti

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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Sep 2014, 00:59
mikemcgarry wrote:
Dear TooLong150,
I'm happy to respond, especially as I was the author of this question. :-)

During a time of population growth and economic growth, we want to explain a drop in the number of reported violent felonies.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded

Notice that the wording here implies that the previous filing system might have allowed for some violent felonies, for whatever reason, to slip through the cracks and go unreported. If there is any possibility that some violent felonies were not reported earlier, and now every single one is reported, that would only increase the number of reported violent felonies, and most certainly would not explain a drop in the number of reported violent felonies. Regardless of how the filing system changed, this one doesn't explain anything. This is an EXCEPT question, so the one that that doesn't explain anything in particular is the correct answer.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.

Parole is when bad guys get out of jail. If the state "considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole", then the bad guys would be stuck in jail for considerably longer. If more bad guys are stuck in jail, then fewer of them are on the streets committing crimes. This definitely would explain a drop in the number of violent felonies. Again, because this is an EXCEPT question, anything that's a valid explanation doesn't work as the answer, so this is out.

Does this make sense, or do you have further questions on this?

Mike :-)


Hi Mike,

Conclusion is : The number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.
So option B - The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded - will not strengthen the argument?

If I say : Even though previously all the crimes were not recorded, now we record all the crimes but still we have lower crime rate.
then it will not strenthen the argument?
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Sep 2014, 09:59
1
chetan86 wrote:
Hi Mike,

Conclusion is : The number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.
So option B - The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded - will not strengthen the argument?

If I say : Even though previously all the crimes were not recorded, now we record all the crimes but still we have lower crime rate.
then it will not strengthen the argument?

Dear chetan86
I'm happy to respond. :-)

First of all, keep in mind, there is no argument in this prompt. This is a paradox question. The prompt simply presents two pieces of evidence that, on the surface, seem contradictory --- how can both be true simultaneously? There's no argument, but simply a paradox to resolve. Now, to make things even trickier, this is an ""EXCEPT" question. In other words, four choices will legitimately contribute to resolving the paradox, and they are not correct, but one choice either is irrelevant or strengthens the argument.

So (B) tell us the police have a better filing system --- perhaps some violent crimes in the past went unrecorded, but now all are recorded. This would seem to explain a rise in the number of recorded violent crimes, and most certainly would not explain how they would drop. This heightens the paradox, rather than resolving it.

Now, one mistake some GMAT students make is the reasoning --- well, if there's a better filing system for recording the crimes, maybe that provides a disincentive to the criminals, thus explaining the drop in crime. This is pure nonsense. You see, I am going to go out on a limb and guess that you, my friend, have never robbed a bank or hijacked a vehicle at gunpoint or committed a murder. I don't even know you, but I am going to guess about that and, most likely, be spot-on correct. You see, folks who are studying for the GMAT tend to be successful students, intelligent & conscientious & responsible and able to plan ahead and think logically about long term consequences. This is the profile of someone taking the GMAT, and it is pretty much the opposite of the profile of someone who commits violent crimes. By and large, most violent criminals are not conscientious, not particularly responsible or reliable, and not able to foresee and think through long term consequences in a way that would provide any break to their impulsive actions. If the police bureaucracy has a new and improved filing system --- yes, the police detectives and leaders understand the significance of that; logical intelligent people who take the GMAT understand the significance of that; but people who commit violent crimes may well not register in the least what consequence that bureaucratic change might have for their lives --- they may well have no idea about it and no way to find out about it. (The police tend not to broadcast their bureaucratic improvements to the criminal population!)

One of the most common and profound philosophical mistake that so many people make is: everyone else operates as I do. Everyone else has the same priorities & values & motivation & aspirations & dreams & hopes & fears as I do. I would estimate that some business, not seeing past this error, have lost millions of dollars. If you plan to go into the business world and be successful, it is extremely important never to underestimate how different other humans, even other intelligent and competent and successful humans, can be from us.

Overall, (B) heightens the paradox and does nothing to resolve it. That's why this is the OA.

Does all this make sense?
Mike :-)
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Jan 2015, 02:51
mikemcgarry wrote:
chetan86 wrote:
Hi Mike,

Conclusion is : The number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.
So option B - The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded - will not strengthen the argument?

If I say : Even though previously all the crimes were not recorded, now we record all the crimes but still we have lower crime rate.
then it will not strengthen the argument?

Dear chetan86
I'm happy to respond. :-)

First of all, keep in mind, there is no argument in this prompt. This is a paradox question. The prompt simply presents two pieces of evidence that, on the surface, seem contradictory --- how can both be true simultaneously? There's no argument, but simply a paradox to resolve. Now, to make things even trickier, this is an ""EXCEPT" question. In other words, four choices will legitimately contribute to resolving the paradox, and they are not correct, but one choice either is irrelevant or strengthens the argument.

So (B) tell us the police have a better filing system --- perhaps some violent crimes in the past went unrecorded, but now all are recorded. This would seem to explain a rise in the number of recorded violent crimes, and most certainly would not explain how they would drop. This heightens the paradox, rather than resolving it.

Now, one mistake some GMAT students make is the reasoning --- well, if there's a better filing system for recording the crimes, maybe that provides a disincentive to the criminals, thus explaining the drop in crime. This is pure nonsense. You see, I am going to go out on a limb and guess that you, my friend, have never robbed a bank or hijacked a vehicle at gunpoint or committed a murder. I don't even know you, but I am going to guess about that and, most likely, be spot-on correct. You see, folks who are studying for the GMAT tend to be successful students, intelligent & conscientious & responsible and able to plan ahead and think logically about long term consequences. This is the profile of someone taking the GMAT, and it is pretty much the opposite of the profile of someone who commits violent crimes. By and large, most violent criminals are not conscientious, not particularly responsible or reliable, and not able to foresee and think through long term consequences in a way that would provide any break to their impulsive actions. If the police bureaucracy has a new and improved filing system --- yes, the police detectives and leaders understand the significance of that; logical intelligent people who take the GMAT understand the significance of that; but people who commit violent crimes may well not register in the least what consequence that bureaucratic change might have for their lives --- they may well have no idea about it and no way to find out about it. (The police tend not to broadcast their bureaucratic improvements to the criminal population!)

One of the most common and profound philosophical mistake that so many people make is: everyone else operates as I do. Everyone else has the same priorities & values & motivation & aspirations & dreams & hopes & fears as I do. I would estimate that some business, not seeing past this error, have lost millions of dollars. If you plan to go into the business world and be successful, it is extremely important never to underestimate how different other humans, even other intelligent and competent and successful humans, can be from us.

Overall, (B) heightens the paradox and does nothing to resolve it. That's why this is the OA.

Does all this make sense?
Mike :-)


Awesome explanation, Mike!
Thanks a lot, bro!
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 04 Jun 2015, 06:53
Over the past ten years, the population of Dismiston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.
(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts’ waiting period for parole.
(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.
(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.
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Originally posted by gmt1 on 04 Jun 2015, 02:18.
Last edited by gmt1 on 04 Jun 2015, 06:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jun 2015, 06:37
I hate you Sam GM :( Either you post a question without OA or a question having OA which does not match my answer .
I chose the option A here . Can anyone tell me where I went wrong ?
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jun 2015, 07:01
swapyuee wrote:
I hate you Sam GM :( Either you post a question without OA or a question having OA which does not match my answer .
I chose the option A here . Can anyone tell me where I went wrong ?



Dear swapyuee,

There was a mistake in the OA which has been corrected. However, A can not be the answer:
In my opinion, increased inflow of money/higher average income might increase the white collar crimes in the city-->which is NON-VIOLENT,and also such crimes ,according to this option,replace the street violence-->this would eventually decrease the violent felonies in the city.
Hope it clarifies...
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Jun 2015, 05:44
Paradox is:
# population increase, average income increase, amount of capital increase.
# of violent crimes DECREASED

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.
Because non-violent replaced violent crimes, therefore # of violent crimes DECREASED. Explains the paradox.
(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
So the violent crime cannot go unrecorded, but it means it still will happen right? Does not explain the paradox
(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts’ waiting period for parole.
If the convicts are waiting for the parole, means they are not allowed to be released for even short duration, means low violent crimes. Explains the paradox.
(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.
Increase in police force with latest tech, means low violent crimes. Explains the paradox.
(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.
Better lit, means low violent crimes. Explains the paradox.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jun 2015, 11:56
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Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.

B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.

C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole

D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.

E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 17 Apr 2017, 18:30
1
Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.
(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.
(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.
(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.

Merged topic. Please search before posting.

Originally posted by rohit8865 on 15 Aug 2015, 18:59.
Last edited by hazelnut on 17 Apr 2017, 18:30, edited 2 times in total.
Renamed the topic
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Aug 2015, 20:04
rohit8865 wrote:
Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

A)White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.
B)The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
C)During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.
D)The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.
E)The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.



1. Follow the posting guidelines.

2. Please search before a question. This question has already been discussed at 3 other locations.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Sep 2015, 23:10
1
My Explanation:
A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity. - Provides an explanation why violent crimes are reduced during the specified period.

B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded. - Okay, that means all the violent crimes that have ever occurred will be recorded because of the computerized filing system. But ideally in this scenario, the # of violent crimes might be increased. Hence, this doesn't explain the surprised finding

C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole - Long waiting period means, felony convicts' are still in jail that means fewer violent crimes

D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology. - Great! That means police force can better violent crimes now hence may be the reason for less violent crimes

E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues. - Okay, so that means the city is under tight supervision that allows less room for violent crimes.

Hence Option B is the answer :)

Thanks,
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Nov 2016, 17:21
Funny observation -

Question stem states it is surprising that the number of violent felonies reported has come down.

What is surprising to me is the other information provided in the question stem, such as increased income and inflow of capital, has zero correlation to violent felonies.

Did someone else find it funny? :-D
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Nov 2016, 17:41
why it is so funny? I think this is a good calculation. If someone not entertain by this figure so calculate your self
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Aug 2018, 16:53

Official Explanation


This is an EXCEPT question. Four of the answer will be perfectly valid explanations, and these will be incorrect. One of the answers will not be good explanation ---- either it will be irrelevant, or it may even suggest a rise instead of a decline; this oddball choice will be the correct answer.

The credited answer is (B). The new filing system, in essence, never misses the report of a violent crime. This at least implies that perhaps the previous filing system missed some violent crimes on occasion --- for whatever reason, some violent crimes that took place slipped through the cracks and failed to be reported. Well, if we were not reporting everything before, and are reporting everything now, if anything this might suggest an increase in the number of reported violent crimes. It most certainly would not, by itself, explain a decrease. This is not in any way a good explanation, so this the correct answer.

We know, over the past decade, "the average income in the city has risen substantially" and "a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city," both of which indicate conditions of prosperity. Therefore, according to choice (A), white-collar crimes would increase, and street-crimes would decrease, with a concomitant drop in violent crimes. Choice (A) is a valid explanation, so it's an incorrect answer.

If the state kept convicts in jail longer, that would mean fewer of them would be back out on the streets committing felonies, most of which are violent. Therefore, it would lead to a drop in the number of violent crimes. Choice (C) is a valid explanation, so it's an incorrect answer.

Better police and better crime detection means more arrests and fewer violent crimes. Therefore, it would lead to a drop in the number of violent crimes. Choice (D) is a valid explanation, so it's an incorrect answer.

Better lighting at night and security cameras have some effect in reducing crime. Choice (E) is a valid explanation, so it's an incorrect answer.

BTW, in the category of extra information you don't need to know for the GMAT, the name of this fictional town comes from the name of the "good thief" in the New Testament.
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