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Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti

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Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.
(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.
(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.
(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

Last edited by guerrero25 on 14 Dec 2013, 18:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2013, 09:47
IMO A

Conclusion: An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

We need to find an option that doesn't explain this surprising finding.

A)White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity. Hold on This doesn't really explain the decrease in no. of felonies per year but instead focuses on white collar crimes. Rather this option somewhat weakens the claim as in times of prosperity, violent felonies might increase.

B)The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded. If crimes are recorded accurately using computerized system then this accuracy might account for the inaccurate records of violent felonies in previous years, explaining the decrease in reported violent felonies. Basically technology improves efficiency and quality.

C)During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole. Considerable increase in waiting period for parole explains the number of unreported violent felonies and therefore decrease in reported felonies.

D)The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology. Same as B i.e. increased efficiency due to technological improvement explains the so far decrease in violent felonies

E)The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues. Better security and lights help the city to remain safe and less violent felonies :-)

Therefore we have A as our final choice :-).

Please post OA.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2013, 13:53
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mba1382 wrote:
IMO A

Conclusion: An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

We need to find an option that doesn't explain this surprising finding.

A)White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity. Hold on This doesn't really explain the decrease in no. of felonies per year but instead focuses on white collar crimes. Rather this option somewhat weakens the claim as in times of prosperity, violent felonies might increase.

B)The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded. If crimes are recorded accurately using computerized system then this accuracy might account for the inaccurate records of violent felonies in previous years, explaining the decrease in reported violent felonies. Basically technology improves efficiency and quality.

C)During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole. Considerable increase in waiting period for parole explains the number of unreported violent felonies and therefore decrease in reported felonies.

D)The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology. Same as B i.e. increased efficiency due to technological improvement explains the so far decrease in violent felonies

E)The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues. Better security and lights help the city to remain safe and less violent felonies :-)

Therefore we have A as our final choice :-).

Please post OA.


IMO B is rather not explaining the decrease in violent crimes reported..if some crimes used to go unrecorded due to lack of computerized filing system , the number of crimes reported should rather increase thanks to the computerized filing system introduced..this statement is thus clearly predating on the discrepancy sighted i.e the decrease in crime...

A on the other hand is clearly saying that white collar crimes are non violent and they are replacing the street crimes..though we have to assume that street crimes will generally be on the violent side...and thus its clearly explaining the decrease in violent crimes reported..

So IMHO B is the correct Xcept option...
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2013, 16:50
B,
we have to find a statement which does not explain the surprising finding.

B)The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
it only gives the confirmation that records of crime is accurate. it does not explain why or how numbers of crime decreased.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2013, 18:23
IMO B because if the new system was implemented, there would be a increase in the number of cases that could've been lost, but are now reported. Losing cases would reduce the number of violent crimes reported.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2013, 21:33
Devil is in the details. Option A is really tempting rather shell game answer. If you see the option A closely,it says "White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity"

So here we have to make a really broad assumption that street crimes will mean only violent felonies and nothing else. As I said it doesn't really account for the decrease in violent felonies rather focuses on white crimes and moreover on street crimes (ambiguous to assume as violent felonies) . In fact many other assumptions will come into play.

As far as option B is concerned,it says that "The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded". So here while reporting those violent felonies, there might be manual or human errors such redundancy i.e. same crime being reported over the years or within a year. Also the argument premises state that

"Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city.".

Since the population has grown five times and average income has has risen substantially along with tremendous amount of capital inflows, it is very unlikely that violent felonies will increase.

Since we have to chose the best option, I still stay with option A. I must say the options A & B are very dicey and loose. Even if I am wrong , I would like to see where I went wrong in my logic, providing me more input.

Please provide OA along with OE as this will provide more understanding about why the correct answer is correct. Good to have such healthy discussions, giving more food for thought :-)

abhijeetjha wrote:
mba1382 wrote:
IMO A

Conclusion: An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

We need to find an option that doesn't explain this surprising finding.

A)White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity. Hold on This doesn't really explain the decrease in no. of felonies per year but instead focuses on white collar crimes. Rather this option somewhat weakens the claim as in times of prosperity, violent felonies might increase.

B)The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded. If crimes are recorded accurately using computerized system then this accuracy might account for the inaccurate records of violent felonies in previous years, explaining the decrease in reported violent felonies. Basically technology improves efficiency and quality.

C)During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole. Considerable increase in waiting period for parole explains the number of unreported violent felonies and therefore decrease in reported felonies.

D)The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology. Same as B i.e. increased efficiency due to technological improvement explains the so far decrease in violent felonies

E)The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues. Better security and lights help the city to remain safe and less violent felonies :-)

Therefore we have A as our final choice :-).

Please post OA.


IMO B is rather not explaining the decrease in violent crimes reported..if some crimes used to go unrecorded due to lack of computerized filing system , the number of crimes reported should rather increase thanks to the computerized filing system introduced..this statement is thus clearly predating on the discrepancy sighted i.e the decrease in crime...

A on the other hand is clearly saying that white collar crimes are non violent and they are replacing the street crimes..though we have to assume that street crimes will generally be on the violent side...and thus its clearly explaining the decrease in violent crimes reported..

So IMHO B is the correct Xcept option...
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2013, 23:11
mba1382 wrote:
Devil is in the details. Option A is really tempting rather shell game answer. If you see the option A closely,it says "White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity"

So here we have to make a really broad assumption that street crimes will mean only violent felonies and nothing else. As I said it doesn't really account for the decrease in violent felonies rather focuses on white crimes and moreover on street crimes (ambiguous to assume as violent felonies) . In fact many other assumptions will come into play.

As far as option B is concerned,it says that "The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded". So here while reporting those violent felonies, there might be manual or human errors such redundancy i.e. same crime being reported over the years or within a year. Also the argument premises state that

"Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city.".

Since the population has grown five times and average income has has risen substantially along with tremendous amount of capital inflows, it is very unlikely that violent felonies will increase.

Since we have to chose the best option, I still stay with option A. I must say the options A & B are very dicey and loose. Even if I am wrong , I would like to see where I went wrong in my logic, providing me more input.

Please provide OA along with OE as this will provide more understanding about why the correct answer is correct. Good to have such healthy discussions, giving more food for thought :-)

abhijeetjha wrote:
mba1382 wrote:
IMO A

Conclusion: An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

We need to find an option that doesn't explain this surprising finding.

A)White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity. Hold on This doesn't really explain the decrease in no. of felonies per year but instead focuses on white collar crimes. Rather this option somewhat weakens the claim as in times of prosperity, violent felonies might increase.

B)The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded. If crimes are recorded accurately using computerized system then this accuracy might account for the inaccurate records of violent felonies in previous years, explaining the decrease in reported violent felonies. Basically technology improves efficiency and quality.

C)During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole. Considerable increase in waiting period for parole explains the number of unreported violent felonies and therefore decrease in reported felonies.

D)The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology. Same as B i.e. increased efficiency due to technological improvement explains the so far decrease in violent felonies

E)The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues. Better security and lights help the city to remain safe and less violent felonies :-)

Therefore we have A as our final choice :-).

Please post OA.


IMO B is rather not explaining the decrease in violent crimes reported..if some crimes used to go unrecorded due to lack of computerized filing system , the number of crimes reported should rather increase thanks to the computerized filing system introduced..this statement is thus clearly predating on the discrepancy sighted i.e the decrease in crime...

A on the other hand is clearly saying that white collar crimes are non violent and they are replacing the street crimes..though we have to assume that street crimes will generally be on the violent side...and thus its clearly explaining the decrease in violent crimes reported..

So IMHO B is the correct Xcept option...


Hi Mba1382...i think u have delved a little bit deeper into the argument than required ...u can reach at the correct xcept option B just by analysing the periphery of the argument..i think the key to answering this question is the term " reported " in the argument....the situation says the number of violent felonies reported has decreased not committed ... so i think "B" is the only option which fails to explain the decrease in crime...and as far as i think it is a well written argument with a very subtle term hidden brilliantly ...if u get that term you can easily hit the bull's eye.....Still waiting for OA ...

Last edited by abhijeetjha on 14 Dec 2013, 01:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 14 Dec 2013, 00:24
Thanks for your explanation and appreciate your reasoning. I googled and came to know that OA is B. I am not afraid of being wrong but I still think options A & B are too vague to be considered in real GMAT.

abhijeetjha wrote:
Hi Mba1382...i think u have delved a little bit deeper into the argument than required ...u can reach at the correct xcept option B just by analysing the periphery of the argument..i think the key to answering this question is the term " reported " in the argument....the situation says the number of violent felonies reported has decreased not committed ... so i think "B" is the only option which fails to explain the decrease in crime...and as far as i think this a well written argument with a very subtle term hidden brilliantly ...if u get that term you can easily hit the bull's eye.....Still waiting for OA ...
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 14 Dec 2013, 06:08
B seems to be the only option worth considering.

A clearly states that during times of prosperity(which is what the argument talks about), the violent crimes are replaced by non-violent crimes. This clearly shows why violent felonies have decreased. It is because people are now committing non violent white collar crimes.

If option B is true, we can conveniently assume that all cases of violent crimes are now being reported. This strengthens the report generated by the independent organisation. In a way it simply restates what is being said in the argument. But it does not strengthen or weaken the argument in any way whatsoever.

Remember, this is an EXCEPT question.

Answer: B
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 14 Dec 2013, 07:09
If you see the option it says that street crimes and not violent felonies. Anyways as I said options A & B are too vague to be considered in a real GMAT situation.

asethi100 wrote:
B seems to be the only option worth considering.

A clearly states that during times of prosperity(which is what the argument talks about), the violent crimes are replaced by non-violent crimes. This clearly shows why violent felonies have decreased. It is because people are now committing non violent white collar crimes.

If option B is true, we can conveniently assume that all cases of violent crimes are now being reported. This strengthens the report generated by the independent organisation. In a way it simply restates what is being said in the argument. But it does not strengthen or weaken the argument in any way whatsoever.

Remember, this is an EXCEPT question.

Answer: B
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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abhijeetjha wrote:
Hi Mike
Please help with this CR passage
Regards, Abhijeet

Dear abhijeetjha & others,
I'm happy to help. :-) I am the author of this Magoosh question, and the OA is (B). I will explain.

We want to explain a decrease in the number of violent felonies reported. This is tricky, because it's an "except" question. Four of the answers will constitute valid reasons that the number of recorded violent crimes would decrease, and these valid reasons are NOT the correct answer. Only one choice does not indicate why the number of recorded violent crimes would decrease, and that answer is correct.

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.
During prosperity, as Dismaston is experience, there is a rise in non-violent white collar crimes, and a corresponding drop in street crimes, many of which are violent. Thus, fewer violent crimes. I have no idea why mba1382 thinks anything about this is vague. In my mind, the key word in this choice is the word "replace", which implies that as the former increases, the latter decreases. Not all street crimes are violent, but obviously some are, whereas we are told that white collar crimes are "almost always non-violent", so if the white collar crimes "replace" the street crimes, that will result in a drop in violent crimes.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
It is "now ... impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded", implying that, before, this was possible. If the police didn't have this system five years ago, that would mean at that time some violent crimes occurred, but because of filing snafus or other mistakes, the crimes weren't properly recorded. They slipped through the cracks. Thus, at that time, there would be fewer reported violent crimes than there were violent crimes that actually occurred. If the violent crime rate remained the same, and they got this new computer system, then every violent crime would be recorded, and thus, the number of reported violent crimes would rise to be equal to the number of violent crimes that actually happened. If anything, this fact would explain an increase in the number of reported violent crimes, so it certainly does nothing to explain the decrease.
This choice doesn't explain at all a drop in crimes, so this is the best answer to the "except" question. Again, I am unclear why mba1382 thinks anything is vague here.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.
If the parole period is lengthen, that means even if new convicts are going to prison at the same rate, fewer are coming out. More in & fewer out means a decrease in those folks on the streets, which would result in a decrease in violent crimes.

(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.
Cops have better equipment, so they can catch the bad guys better and arrest them and sent them to prison. That results in fewer violent crimes.

(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.
Lights & security cameras are deterrents for crime, and also enhance detection & apprehension & conviction. It become easily to catch & try the criminal, and much easier to convict them if we have video evidence of the crime. That involves fewer getting off the hook when they are on trial, and more going to prison, which reduces the number of violent crimes.

Does all this make sense?
Mike :-)
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 14 Dec 2013, 21:57
Thanks Mike for your explanation. I am no expert but just wanted to understand the 2 options. :-) Here is my understanding as below:

As you said about option A that

Not all street crimes are violent, but obviously some are, whereas we are told that white collar crimes are "almost always non-violent", so if the white collar crimes "replace" the street crimes, that will result in a drop in violent crimes.

Now as I stated in my previous posts that it doesn't really account for the decrease in violent felonies rather focuses on white crimes and moreover on street crimes (ambiguous to assume as violent felonies) . Rather this option somewhat weakens the claim as in times of prosperity, violent felonies might increase as well. In fact many other assumptions will come into play.

Now about option B, as you mention in your explanation that "If the police didn't have this system five years ago, that would mean at that time some violent crimes occurred, but because of filing snafus or other mistakes, the crimes weren't properly recorded.".

I thought exactly opposite might happen as posted in my previous posts with following assumption:

While reporting those violent felonies, there might be manual or human errors such redundancy i.e. same crime being reported over the years or within a year.

Since we have to make such assumptions about options A & B , that's the reason I said that A & B seem vague. Here I am not trying to prove anyone wrong or straying away from healthy discussions but just trying to convey my reasoning behind A & B.



mikemcgarry wrote:
abhijeetjha wrote:
Hi Mike
Please help with this CR passage
Regards, Abhijeet

Dear abhijeetjha & others,
I'm happy to help. :-) I am the author of this Magoosh question, and the OA is (B). I will explain.

We want to explain a decrease in the number of violent felonies reported. This is tricky, because it's an "except" question. Four of the answers will constitute valid reasons that the number of recorded violent crimes would decrease, and these valid reasons are NOT the correct answer. Only one choice does not indicate why the number of recorded violent crimes would decrease, and that answer is correct.

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.
During prosperity, as Dismaston is experience, there is a rise in non-violent white collar crimes, and a corresponding drop in street crimes, many of which are violent. Thus, fewer violent crimes. I have no idea why mba1382 thinks anything about this is vague. In my mind, the key word in this choice is the word "replace", which implies that as the former increases, the latter decreases. Not all street crimes are violent, but obviously some are, whereas we are told that white collar crimes are "almost always non-violent", so if the white collar crimes "replace" the street crimes, that will result in a drop in violent crimes.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
It is "now ... impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded", implying that, before, this was possible. If the police didn't have this system five years ago, that would mean at that time some violent crimes occurred, but because of filing snafus or other mistakes, the crimes weren't properly recorded. They slipped through the cracks. Thus, at that time, there would be fewer reported violent crimes than there were violent crimes that actually occurred. If the violent crime rate remained the same, and they got this new computer system, then every violent crime would be recorded, and thus, the number of reported violent crimes would rise to be equal to the number of violent crimes that actually happened. If anything, this fact would explain an increase in the number of reported violent crimes, so it certainly does nothing to explain the decrease.
This choice doesn't explain at all a drop in crimes, so this is the best answer to the "except" question. Again, I am unclear why mba1382 thinks anything is vague here.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.
If the parole period is lengthen, that means even if new convicts are going to prison at the same rate, fewer are coming out. More in & fewer out means a decrease in those folks on the streets, which would result in a decrease in violent crimes.

(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.
Cops have better equipment, so they can catch the bad guys better and arrest them and sent them to prison. That results in fewer violent crimes.

(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.
Lights & security cameras are deterrents for crime, and also enhance detection & apprehension & conviction. It become easily to catch & try the criminal, and much easier to convict them if we have video evidence of the crime. That involves fewer getting off the hook when they are on trial, and more going to prison, which reduces the number of violent crimes.

Does all this make sense?
Mike :-)
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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mba1382 wrote:
Thanks Mike for your explanation. I am no expert but just wanted to understand the 2 options. :-) Here is my understanding as below:

As you said about option A that

Not all street crimes are violent, but obviously some are, whereas we are told that white collar crimes are "almost always non-violent", so if the white collar crimes "replace" the street crimes, that will result in a drop in violent crimes.

Now as I stated in my previous posts that it doesn't really account for the decrease in violent felonies rather focuses on white crimes and moreover on street crimes (ambiguous to assume as violent felonies) . Rather this option somewhat weakens the claim as in times of prosperity, violent felonies might increase as well. In fact many other assumptions will come into play.

Now about option B, as you mention in your explanation that "If the police didn't have this system five years ago, that would mean at that time some violent crimes occurred, but because of filing snafus or other mistakes, the crimes weren't properly recorded.".

I thought exactly opposite might happen as posted in my previous posts with following assumption:

While reporting those violent felonies, there might be manual or human errors such redundancy i.e. same crime being reported over the years or within a year.

Since we have to make such assumptions about options A & B , that's the reason I said that A & B seem vague. Here I am not trying to prove anyone wrong or straying away from healthy discussions but just trying to convey my reasoning behind A & B.

Dear mba1382,
I appreciate your criticisms, and I will do my best to address them. :-)

I still submit that, in option (A), you are not fully appreciating the word "replace" and what is signifies. It says that white collar crimes "replace" street crimes. Let's say the time of the argument is 2010, so that 2005 is "five years ago." Let's say, for simplicity, in 2005, there were
20 white collar crimes
180 street crimes
Now, fast-forward to 2010 --- let's say 100 street crimes were "replaced" with white collar crimes. Then, in 2010, we would have
120 white collar crimes
80 street crimes
In the log of how many crimes in the city, the total number stayed more or less constant, but part of the "place" held by street crimes in that total was occupied, that is, replaced, by white collar crimes.

Now, to the second point --- true, not all street crimes are violent, but clearly some percentage are. After all, many murders, gang wars, shooting, vehicular crimes, etc. occur outside, on the "streets". I have no idea the percentage --- for simplicity, let's say that 50% of street crimes are violent. From the information in prompt (A) we can assume that 0% of white collar crimes are violent.
Thus, in 2005, we had (0% of 20) + (50% of 180) = 90 violent crimes
and, in 2010, we had (0% of 120) + (50% of 80) = 40 violent crimes
That's a drop in violent crimes.

As for option (B): I totally agree with you, if option (B) said only
The police now have a computerized filing system, and it is more accurate than the previous system.
then this would be open to tremendous ambiguity. We wouldn't know which way the inaccuracies of the past would have gone --- underrecording or overrecording. There could be more or fewer recorded crimes in the past, depending on the direction of the mistakes they made in the past.
Instead, the full version of option (B) says:
The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
Unlike the first version in red, this version implies a direction. Now, it is impossible for these crimes to be unrecorded, which clearly implies the earlier problem, the earlier issue with the previous filing system, was that some violent crimes were unrecorded.

My friend, I realize that, to some extent, I am repeating myself. I am not sure what else to say. If you are still not convinced, here's what I suggest. Call in another expert. For example, VeritasPrepKarishma is a truly brilliant individual. Any of the MGMAT folks would be fine --- those people are extremely sharp. Any of the moderators of the SC forum (listed at the bottom of every post) would be fine --- they're all very intelligent. Send someone along those lines a private message with a link to this thread, and ask for their explanation of the first two option. I totally admit that, since I am the author of this question, perhaps I am too biased, too close to it to see all the perspectives. Perhaps you need to hear it in someone else's words.

My friend, I want to support your understanding of GMAT CR question in any way I can. Let me know if you have any more questions for me.

Mike :-)
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 15 Dec 2013, 20:25
Thanks Mike. Really appreciate your efforts here in helping me understand. :-) ... No further arguments or calling more experts here. Kudos to you :-)

mikemcgarry wrote:
mba1382 wrote:
Thanks Mike for your explanation. I am no expert but just wanted to understand the 2 options. :-) Here is my understanding as below:

As you said about option A that

Not all street crimes are violent, but obviously some are, whereas we are told that white collar crimes are "almost always non-violent", so if the white collar crimes "replace" the street crimes, that will result in a drop in violent crimes.

Now as I stated in my previous posts that it doesn't really account for the decrease in violent felonies rather focuses on white crimes and moreover on street crimes (ambiguous to assume as violent felonies) . Rather this option somewhat weakens the claim as in times of prosperity, violent felonies might increase as well. In fact many other assumptions will come into play.

Now about option B, as you mention in your explanation that "If the police didn't have this system five years ago, that would mean at that time some violent crimes occurred, but because of filing snafus or other mistakes, the crimes weren't properly recorded.".

I thought exactly opposite might happen as posted in my previous posts with following assumption:

While reporting those violent felonies, there might be manual or human errors such redundancy i.e. same crime being reported over the years or within a year.

Since we have to make such assumptions about options A & B , that's the reason I said that A & B seem vague. Here I am not trying to prove anyone wrong or straying away from healthy discussions but just trying to convey my reasoning behind A & B.

Dear mba1382,
I appreciate your criticisms, and I will do my best to address them. :-)

I still submit that, in option (A), you are not fully appreciating the word "replace" and what is signifies. It says that white collar crimes "replace" street crimes. Let's say the time of the argument is 2010, so that 2005 is "five years ago." Let's say, for simplicity, in 2005, there were
20 white collar crimes
180 street crimes
Now, fast-forward to 2010 --- let's say 100 street crimes were "replaced" with white collar crimes. Then, in 2010, we would have
120 white collar crimes
80 street crimes
In the log of how many crimes in the city, the total number stayed more or less constant, but part of the "place" held by street crimes in that total was occupied, that is, replaced, by white collar crimes.

Now, to the second point --- true, not all street crimes are violent, but clearly some percentage are. After all, many murders, gang wars, shooting, vehicular crimes, etc. occur outside, on the "streets". I have no idea the percentage --- for simplicity, let's say that 50% of street crimes are violent. From the information in prompt (A) we can assume that 0% of white collar crimes are violent.
Thus, in 2005, we had (0% of 20) + (50% of 180) = 90 violent crimes
and, in 2010, we had (0% of 120) + (50% of 80) = 40 violent crimes
That's a drop in violent crimes.

As for option (B): I totally agree with you, if option (B) said only
The police now have a computerized filing system, and it is more accurate than the previous system.
then this would be open to tremendous ambiguity. We wouldn't know which way the inaccuracies of the past would have gone --- underrecording or overrecording. There could be more or fewer recorded crimes in the past, depending on the direction of the mistakes they made in the past.
Instead, the full version of option (B) says:
The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.
Unlike the first version in red, this version implies a direction. Now, it is impossible for these crimes to be unrecorded, which clearly implies the earlier problem, the earlier issue with the previous filing system, was that some violent crimes were unrecorded.

My friend, I realize that, to some extent, I am repeating myself. I am not sure what else to say. If you are still not convinced, here's what I suggest. Call in another expert. For example, VeritasPrepKarishma is a truly brilliant individual. Any of the MGMAT folks would be fine --- those people are extremely sharp. Any of the moderators of the SC forum (listed at the bottom of every post) would be fine --- they're all very intelligent. Send someone along those lines a private message with a link to this thread, and ask for their explanation of the first two option. I totally admit that, since I am the author of this question, perhaps I am too biased, too close to it to see all the perspectives. Perhaps you need to hear it in someone else's words.

My friend, I want to support your understanding of GMAT CR question in any way I can. Let me know if you have any more questions for me.

Mike :-)
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.

(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.

(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.

[Reveal] Spoiler:
Can someone explain why "C" is definitely out and "B" is definitely in? I don't really like the OE for both of these answer choices.
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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TooLong150 wrote:
Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.

(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.

(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.

[Reveal] Spoiler:
Can someone explain why "C" is definitely out and "B" is definitely in? I don't really like the OE for both of these answer choices.

Dear TooLong150,
I'm happy to respond, especially as I was the author of this question. :-)

During a time of population growth and economic growth, we want to explain a drop in the number of reported violent felonies.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded

Notice that the wording here implies that the previous filing system might have allowed for some violent felonies, for whatever reason, to slip through the cracks and go unreported. If there is any possibility that some violent felonies were not reported earlier, and now every single one is reported, that would only increase the number of reported violent felonies, and most certainly would not explain a drop in the number of reported violent felonies. Regardless of how the filing system changed, this one doesn't explain anything. This is an EXCEPT question, so the one that that doesn't explain anything in particular is the correct answer.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.

Parole is when bad guys get out of jail. If the state "considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole", then the bad guys would be stuck in jail for considerably longer. If more bad guys are stuck in jail, then fewer of them are on the streets committing crimes. This definitely would explain a drop in the number of violent felonies. Again, because this is an EXCEPT question, anything that's a valid explanation doesn't work as the answer, so this is out.

Does this make sense, or do you have further questions on this?

Mike :-)
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 04 Mar 2014, 17:40
mikemcgarry wrote:
TooLong150 wrote:
Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

(A) White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.

(D) The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.

(E) The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.

[Reveal] Spoiler:
Can someone explain why "C" is definitely out and "B" is definitely in? I don't really like the OE for both of these answer choices.

Dear TooLong150,
I'm happy to respond, especially as I was the author of this question. :-)

During a time of population growth and economic growth, we want to explain a drop in the number of reported violent felonies.

(B) The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded

Notice that the wording here implies that the previous filing system might have allowed for some violent felonies, for whatever reason, to slip through the cracks and go unreported. If there is any possibility that some violent felonies were not reported earlier, and now every single one is reported, that would only increase the number of reported violent felonies, and most certainly would not explain a drop in the number of reported violent felonies. Regardless of how the filing system changed, this one doesn't explain anything. This is an EXCEPT question, so the one that that doesn't explain anything in particular is the correct answer.

(C) During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole.

Parole is when bad guys get out of jail. If the state "considerably lengthened felony convicts' waiting period for parole", then the bad guys would be stuck in jail for considerably longer. If more bad guys are stuck in jail, then fewer of them are on the streets committing crimes. This definitely would explain a drop in the number of violent felonies. Again, because this is an EXCEPT question, anything that's a valid explanation doesn't work as the answer, so this is out.

Does this make sense, or do you have further questions on this?

Mike :-)


thanks mike, i just simply scratched out the ones that do explain it and B was all that was left lol
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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Over the past ten years, the population of Dismiston has grown five times as large as it was. During this time, the average income in the city has risen substantially, and a tremendous amount of capital has flowed into city. An independent audit found that, somewhat surprisingly, the number of violent felonies reported per year is now lower than it was ten years ago.

Each of the following statements below, if true, would explain the somewhat surprising finding EXCEPT:

A. White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity.

B. The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.

C. During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts’ waiting period for parole.

D. The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology.

E. The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues.

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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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New post 04 Sep 2014, 21:30
B seems best: The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.

A;C;D and E are all acting as deterrent to explain as why violent crime might have reduced . B, on the other hand, is just explaining the fact that the DATA presented in the premise is correct . no way B can acts as deterrent for violent crimes .
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti [#permalink]

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B it is.

A. White collar crimes, which are almost always non-violent, tend to replace street-crimes during times of prosperity. [crime is there but not violent or something that is seen on street or reported. +ve effect]
B. The police now have a computerized filing system, so that it is almost impossible for a violent crime to be unrecorded.[so how does this help in reducing the crime. Its just recording the crime. Doesn't help us in our quest :) ] Correct.
C. During this time, the state considerably lengthened felony convicts’ waiting period for parole. [less convicts on street. +ve effect]
D. The police force has expanded in number and is equipped with the latest crime detection technology. [on same line as E.+ve effect.]
E. The city is now much better lit at night, and security cameras protect a large number of public venues. [better security measure. +ve effect.]
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Re: Over the past ten years, the population of Dismaston has grown five ti   [#permalink] 04 Sep 2014, 23:12

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