nitin6305 wrote:
Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude that inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
Which of the following if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.
Please provide detailed explanations if possible.
Hi nitin
I'm glad to elaborate.
ANALYZE THE STIMULUS:Fact: Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent,
Fact: The current year it has been 4 percent.
Conclusion: inflation is on upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
The question uses a popular
logical fallacy: “Using several points to conclude a trend”.
KEYWORD here is “
upward trend”. To weaken the conclusion, you can show that the data provided in the stimulus does not represent the overall trend.
ANALYZE EACH ANSWER:A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.
Wrong. The point needs to be attacked is the result – upward trend,
not the method (economic data vs all available data)
B) Last year the dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
Correct. Regularly, the inflation rate is 4%,
last year’s inflation rate is only the temporary case. So, the comparison between last year’s inflation rate with current year’s does not reflect the overall trend. ==> Weaken the conclusion.
C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent or above, these pay rises constitute a force causing further inflation.
Wrong. Out of scope because
C goes too far. In addition, the key point to attack is the
invalid comparison between last year’s inflation rate and current year’s.
D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10 year low.
Wrong. If it’s true, how does it weaken the conclusion.
What if in the years before last year, the inflation rates were stable at 4%?.
E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant change.
Wrong. Out of scope. Nothing about “government intervention”.
Hope it helps.