AvalonQQ wrote:
Tend to agree with both your situations. While logically it looks like its the 2nd scenario, I've actually spent a ton of time checking this site and clearadmit over the past few months. On clearadmit, there are hardly any posts of people going to McCombs on Decisionwire. On this site, I've probably checked (read: stalked) almost every profile who's been admitted and I remember there being very few people who were actually going to pick McCombs. This was either from their post history or the fact that they've chosen that they're matriculating elsewhere. Obviously this data isn't representative, but I definitely did not see a very high yield.
Also, the current class of 2020 group on Facebook has about 260 people, but this includes adcom, people who joined the group before the Round 1 decisions and people who got admission but haven't taken it either, so take that info however you want to.
My situation: international, waitlisted in R1, stayed in touch, shared a letter of interest, a couple of transcripts and retook my GMAT. Doesn't really look good, I hope its situation 1, but logically it seems like its 2. Even with all the checking I've done, the fact is if their yield was exceptionally low they'd probably be admitting people off the waitlist early so that they don't lose out on good candidates. It is what it is I guess.
Everyone's reasons for scenario 2 being likely make sense, i.e. dinging waitlisters, admitting low #'s in R3 and pushing the waitlist admit decision timeline back.
However, I can't get past the fact that
AvalonQQ brings up, which is that anecdotally, McCombs yield appears low this year. In addition to DecisionWire and their Facebook page, I attended the Tepper Welcome Weekend and I spoke to a surprising number of students who had been admitted to McCombs along with Tepper and every single one turned down McCombs (at least 5 students). Also, with their new Rowling Hall building they are likely to increase their class size this year compared to last (Tepper also built a new building and they are targeting to increase class size by 10 students per Adcom, and they pride themselves on being the smallest class size in the top 20). So I think there is a strong case for Scenario 1.