jabhatta2 wrote:
Hi
avigutman - can i rephrase the question stem as the following
For the purposes of this study, explain why a weak immune system DOES NOT CAUSE any deaths (i.e. is not responsible for the extra 30 %) ?Quote:
Group 1 – weak immune system. Death rate is 60 % within 2 years
Group 2 – average / strong immune system. Death rate is 30 % within 2 years
Both groups are affected by heart disease in the same properationality.
No, this rephrasing is wrong,
jabhatta2. It takes us back to riddle #1. It's also wrong to say:
jabhatta2 wrote:
Both groups are affected by heart disease in the same proportionality.
Why is that wrong? Well, we know from the argument that:
Quote:
those whose immune systems were weakest were twice as likely to die within two years as others in the study. The cause of their deaths, however, was more often heart disease, against which the immune system does not protect, than cancer or infections, which are attacked by the immune system.
So the two groups are in fact NOT affected by heart disease in the same proportionality.
The surprising fact here is
NOT that a weak immune system "played no causal role" in the extra 30% deaths. Why would that, in and of itself, be surprising? There are many possible causes of death.
The surprising fact is: given that the weak immune system "played no causal role" in the extra 30% deaths, why were the people whose immune systems were weakest twice as likely to die within two years as others in the study?
But, I'm just repeating riddle #2 here, so I feel like we're going in circles at this point.
Perhaps an analogy will help?
A two-year study beginning in 2019 found that every morning Avi wakes up at precisely the same time that the sun rises. The cause of Avi's awakening, however, is not the sunshine coming in through the window, since Avi has blackout blinds that are always shut and completely block out the sunshine.
Which of the following, if true, would offer the best prospects for explaining Avi's consistent, daily awakenings at precisely sunrise time, in which the sunshine, though present, played no causal role?
(C) Avi's virtual assistant is programmed to sound an alarm at sunrise every day.
Here, too, we have a correlation. The correlation itself isn't surprising. What makes it surprising is the blackout blinds. In the original argument we have a correlation between weak immune system and death - also not surprising. What makes it surprising is that the weak immune system wasn't causing the death...
So we needed some other explanation for
the correlation between weak immune system and death (this is NOT the same as needing an explanation for
the death). Could it be that death was causing the weak immune system? No, that's as nonsensical as wondering whether my awakening was causing the sun to rise - it defies the laws of physics.
Well, if A~B, and neither A->B nor B->A, then there's probably some third factor involved. In the original problem, that third factor is heart disease (which
both necessitates drugs that weaken the immune system
and causes death). In my analogy, that third factor is the virtual assistant.