willget800 wrote:
1 - P(None)
1 - (3/4*3/4*7/8*2/3)
43/64
==> 67.185% you in Rhyme
Well poop. I like the 95% calc more
67% is low.
I suppose it could be higher - I mean I did get a Chicago invite and a cornell did too.
HBS stands at a 1/8 chance.
Going off last years figures for Kellogg, and my and pehilu's analysis, we can estimate an accept rate of between 33.5 and 52% for the midpoints of the 700-740 and 750-800 range, so lets say 35% - 7/20 odds for Kellogg. These may be a bit higher considering my application is truly unique and a professor should be "dropping by" the admissions office to support my application.
Chicago has an invite, we know that last year they gave out 60% interviews and this year are giving out about 50-60%. Their old yield figures were last reported at 67%, and selectivity at 23%. Unfortunately we dont have total number of applicants, so its only a guess but we can at least estimate my odds at better than 23%, and likely somewhat substantially so - maybe about 35% odds here - 7/20 as well. With two alumni recommendations, I'd venture it might actually be higher.
Cornell's an interesting one too. Median GMAT score, 690, which I beat. 36% accept rate, 1797 applicants. 46% yield. If we assume a general interview policy of about 60% which appears to be the norm around most schools, then about 1078 students are interviewed of which 252 attend. To keep that figure with a 46% yield, they'd have to dish out 547 offers, or about 50%. Given I have an interview my odds are thus 1/2 here.
With these figures: 81% odds overall...
Better, but not quite as high as I'd like.