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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city,

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jul 2011, 08:12
GO WITH B

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2011, 15:20
Straight B.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 07 Aug 2011, 02:55
Absolutely B

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jan 2012, 21:46
Clear answer is B, because all others in some way weaken the argument.
The argument being the "candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor. "

If the 35% of people are looking for an alternative plan to address illegal immigrants has no relevance on how the candidate will win/lose the election for mayor.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 25 Jan 2012, 05:22
B for me

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 25 Jan 2012, 06:37
B

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 14 Apr 2012, 00:32
A does not weaken at all ?

why cant A be the answer?

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:
A. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
B. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
C. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
D. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
E. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 16 May 2012, 22:48
+1 B

The fact that that 35% of people could accept an alternative plan doesn't eliminate the fact that there is a 35% of people who support the plan and a 65% who are against it.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 16 May 2012, 22:57
monir6000 wrote:
Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:
A. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
B. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
C. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
D. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
E. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.


Hi Monir

Clearly we can narrow down the choices to B or D

Let's break down this argument so we can understand why D does weaken:

Conclusion: The candidate who does not support the deportation plan will win the mayoral election.
Premise: One candidate has a deportation plan; the other does not. Of the voting populace, 60% oppose the deportation plan and 35% support it.
Assumption: People's beliefs about the deportation plan will determine how they vote in the election.

To weaken, we attack the assumption. We find that even though the mayor has had prior controversial opinions on issues he has been re-elected four times. Thus, clearly holding controversial opinions has not determined whether he could be elected, and people do not entirely vote on the basis of a candidate's position on controversial issues.. This attacks the assumption in the argument.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 17 May 2012, 22:24
Argument States :

Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan.
=> Candidate (A) who opposes the plan would implicitly have majority unless (anything that weakens the argument) happens

Option B says, 35% of 40% voters (residents who support the plan) may either become indifferent to the plan or supporter of alternative plan
=> Candidate (B) who is supporting the plan would either loose or keep constant his vote share.
So this is the only option which goes against Candidate B and is indifferent to / in support of Candidate A.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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New post 25 Jun 2012, 06:17
Correct answer is B.

If of the 35% who favor the deportation plan some are willing to consider other options, that is a further attrition of the votes of the pro-deportation candidate. This actually strengthens the argument.

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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

a. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
b. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
c. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
d. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
e. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.

Edit: by carcass


[Reveal] Spoiler:
OA soon. Please explain the PoE

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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greatps24 wrote:
Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

a. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
b. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
c. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
d. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
e. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.

[Reveal] Spoiler:
OA soon. Please explain the PoE


(A) If voters make their decision based on abortion then a candidate's position on the illegal immigration proposal will have no effect on his/her candidacy, thus weakening the conclusion.

(C) If many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters then it will put the group which opposes the plan in minority. So, the candidate so opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election. This choice also weakens the conclusion.

(D) This choice directly attacks the assumption that the argument makes - People's opinions decide which candidate will win the election. If a candidate is re-ellected multiple times in spite of his support for controversial issues, then people's opinions do not matter in election.

(E) If around 30% of the residents are illegal immigrants then the percentage of people who oppose the plan would drop to 30%. So the candidate who opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election.
Now the only choice that is left is (b), the answer

Reason why B is correct. If 35% people who support the plan are considering alternate ways to address the immigration, then these people may not vote for the candidate who supports the plan and may vote the candidate who opposes the plan. This choice strengthens the conclusion.

Hope that helps,

Vercules,

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Hi Vercules
I agree that B is correct. But was hard to eliminate E. For E we will have to assume that 30% of the illegal immigrants were a part of 65% of people , who opposed the plan, basis on which conclusion was drawn that candidates who support the plan may stand to lose the election.

How would you categorize E with respect to the correct answer types in case of cause and effect reasoning. Is it weakening the survey type of answer.

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Archit143 wrote:
Hi Vercules
I agree that B is correct. But was hard to eliminate E. For E we will have to assume that 30% of the illegal immigrants were a part of 65% of people , who opposed the plan, basis on which conclusion was drawn that candidates who support the plan may stand to lose the election.

How would you categorize E with respect to the correct answer types in case of cause and effect reasoning. Is it weakening the survey type of answer.

Archit


Hi Archit,

Yes, for sure it is weakening the argument. But, the argument does not have a cause and effect reasoning. Answer choice (E) is not weakening the survey but the conclusion. It is providing new data about the survey, in light of which the results of the given survey would change, thus, weakening the conclusion.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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It's B.
Analysis of Argument :- illegal immigration is an important issue. One candidate plans to deport illegal immigrants whereas other does not. 60% of residents opposed the plan whereas 35% supported it. So the conclusion is, the candidate who oppose the plan will win the election because he enjoys support of 60% residents. There are several things which must have assumed while drawing the conclusion and if did not they will weaken the conclusion. Any choice that contain reasoning reverse of them will be incorrect here 1) all or substantial residents do posses the voting right. 2) all or substantial residents that oppose the plan would actually vote on election day. 3) all or substantial residents that oppose the plan would cast their votes to the candidate who also oppose this plan.

A) Incorrect. This clearly weakens the argument by saying voters do not vote on the basis of candidates' position on illegal migration

B) This choice stays neutral and is correct answer.

C) Incorrect. If substatial voters who oppose the plan have no voting rights then it is difficult for that candidate to win. Weakens the argument.

D) Incorrect. This says there are other factors than illegal immigration on which voters decides whom to vote. Otherwise the candidate who supports the plan would have not been elected again and again

E) This choice seems not to weakens the argument at first(so i kept it as a contender initially) but if look closely it reveals that the residents are devided in three sections 60%(opposers), 35%(supporters), and 5%(neutral). Now the percentage of illegal immigrants is possibily 28% or 29% (just under 30%)and those should must be in 60% section. if those 28% have no voting rights then the candidate who oppose the plan would left with only 32% supporters who can actually vote and can not win the election with that. This weakens the argument. Incorrect.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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Vercules wrote:

(E) If around 30% of the residents are illegal immigrants then the percentage of people who oppose the plan would drop to 30%. So the candidate who opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election.


The part I've highlighted in red is not quite right, mathematically. Say you have 100 people:

--> 60 oppose the plan
--> 35 support the plan
--> 5 are neutral

but we know 30 of these people are illegal immigrants and cannot vote. Assuming they all oppose the plan, when we remove those 30 people from the opposition, we have:

--> 30 oppose the plan
--> 35 support the plan
--> 5 are neutral

The total number of people is now much less than 100. So we don't have 30% opposition; we have 30/70 = 43% opposition. And if you group the opposition with those who are neutral, then you find that 50% of all people are either in opposition or are neutral (and more than 50% are if you take into account that the number of illegal immigrants is actually 'just under 30%').

So while I agree that E weakens the analyst's argument, it would be a mistake to conclude from E that a majority of actual voters will support the plan; that's still untrue even using E.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, [#permalink]

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The analyst argues that the mayoral candidate who opposes the deportation plan
will win the governor’s race because 60% of city residents also oppose the plan.
The analyst assumes that a majority of residents will vote for this candidate
based on his position on illegal immigration. Any statement that calls this
assumption into question will weaken the argument. We are looking for the one
statement that does NOT call this assumption into question.
(A) This statement calls into question the assumption that voters will cast their
ballots based on the illegal immigration issue. Therefore, this statement
weakens the analyst's argument.
(B) CORRECT. This does not weaken the argument. In fact, if some of those
who support the plan are willing to reconsider, they may ultimately oppose the
original plan and decide to vote for the candidate who is also in opposition. If
anything, this would help justify the analyst's claim that the candidate who
opposes the plan will win the election.
(C) This statement calls into question the assumption that a majority of residents
will vote for the candidate who opposes the plan. If many of these residents are
not registered voters, they will not be able to vote, regardless of their position on
the immigration issue. This weakens the argument.
(D) This calls into question the assumption that the residents will vote based on
the illegal immigration issue. This statement shows that voters have a history of
voting for the incumbent despite his controversial position on important issues. It
is possible that the voters will again vote for the incumbent, even if he has taken
an unpopular position on the illegal immigration issue. This weakens the
argument.
(E) If just under 30% of the residents are illegal immigrants, it is likely that many
of the 60% in opposition to the plan are actually illegal immigrants themselves. If
these people can’t vote, it is less likely that the candidate who opposes the plan
will win.

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