for your feedback with so much detailed explanation. As I said more than which of the answers is correct, I wanted to know why the correct answer is correct and wrong answer is wrong.
mba1382 wrote:
Nope sorry . I am still not convinced with your Math Logic to be honest. My question is :
Option D says only about attendance of the theater and doesn't really say that the increase in the attendance actually means increased purchase of popcorn sales.
Dear
mba1382,
I got your private message, and I am happy to help.
You seem to be asking about choices
(D) &
(E), and so I will assume that we can ignore the first three and agree that they are incorrect. Here's the argument with the last two choices only:
TheaterGoer: In January of last year the Megaplex chain of movie theaters started popping its popcorn in canola oil, instead of the less healthful coconut oil that it had been using until then. Now Megaplex is planning to switch back, saying that the change has hurt popcorn sales. That claim is false, however, since according to Megaplex’s own sales figures, Megaplex sold 5% more popcorn last year than in the previous year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the theatergoer's argument ?
D. Total attendance at Megaplex’s movie theaters was more than 20 percent higher last year than the year before.
E. The year before last, Megaplex experienced a 10 percent increase in popcorn sales over the previous year.It is an standard assumption in marketing that what remains fixed is the
percent of people who like a product or make some kind of purchase, and much of marketing is concerned with increasing the total traffic, increasing the raw number of people encountering the venue, because if the total number increases, the same percent will result in much higher sales. All of web marketing is based on this principle --- increase SEO & visitors to the site, and a larger number of visitors to the site will result in more sales, even though the percent of visitors who purchase remains more or less constant.
Let's think about choice
(D). Suppose in January, 2012, they started using the canola oil (yuck!) rather than the good saturated-fat-filled coconut oil. We will think about
(D), and let's make it a little more extreme to understand better. Suppose in 2011, the theater had 1,000,000 visitors, and in 2012, they had 2,000,000 visitors. Instead of a 20% increase, we'll just say that it was 100% increase, for simplicity. If the popcorn remained absolutely unchanged 2011 until 2012, then every marketing model on Earth would predict that, in 2012, with twice the people, they would sell twice the popcorn. Very simple.
Now, consider the fact that, between 2011 and 2012, in addition to twice the visitors , from 1M to 2M, the theater also made the oil change to the popcorn, as as a result, popcorn increased only 5% from 2011 to 2012. Without changing the oil, popcorn sales would have increased 100%, just as the visitors did (at least according to any marketing model on Earth), and with the oil change, popcorn sales increased only 5% --- not good. If sales of the item grow at any rate less than the rate of traffic increase, that necessarily means that a lower percent of total visitors want the popcorn, and the only change to which this could be attributed is the change in the oil.
Thus, choice
(D) indicates there's a significant problem with the use of canola oil, which gives good reason for the theater's decision to change back to coconut oil, and therefore obliterates the theater goer's argument that the theater has no good reason for changing back.
Choice
(E) is irrelevant, because it is talking about size of popcorn sale, and we don't know anything about how the number of theater goers changed. Continuing the dates I was using above, let's say that in 2010, the theater experienced 10% increase in popcorn sales over the sales in 2009. Now suppose that from 2008 to 2011, the number of visitors at the theater each year remained constant. If the same number of people are coming, and they buy 10% more in popcorn, then that means more people are buying popcorn --- that's good. But then, in January 2012, they change the oil, and the number of visitors wildly increases, but the popcorn sales don't wildly increase --- then, that's not so good. This is just one possible scenario, but depending on how the number of theater visitors changed from year to year is exactly what determines whether the percent change in sales is a good thing or not. What matters the most is how the percent change in total popcorn sales compares the percentage change in total number of customers --- what we most expect is for those to change in lock-step with one another, because that would mean the percent of people buying popcorn would remain constant; if the percent change in total popcorn sales is greater than or less than the percent change in total visitors, that indicates a change in the percent of people who buy popcorn, and that typically doesn't change too much unless there's a good reason. We don't have enough information in
(E) to determined whether the information given is relevant or not.
Does all this make sense?
Mike