Thanks for your email. As you know, the Indian applicant pool is a deep one, and having an IT background is going to be pretty common (lots of Infosys applicants too even more specifically). Being female, however is a big advantage, as it's a much smaller pool and b-schools are always trying to boost the percentage of female applicants. Duke is pretty good specifically about having a high percentage of women applicants and right down the road at UNC, their international student population is fairly large with a big contingency from India. It is very difficult to reduce recommendations into your percentage requests. There is no way to assign odds specifically to a school or person. A 650 on the GMAT is a good score and will be in the 80% range of most of the top 20. Your leadership experience is also a strength, and being a tad more mature than the average applicant will help. Since teamwork and leadership and maturity are marquee traits to demonstrate, I would say you have a good chance at schools in the top 20, albeit perhaps more of a stretch for the top 10 just due to the size of your application pool. I'd take a closer look at schools like Tepper, Goizueta, McDonough, Owen and Jones in addition to Duke and KF as stretch schools. With all that work experience, you might also consider either a one year program (Emory has a good one and they are still taking applications now for the class that starts in May if you hurry). Also, EMBA programs might be within reach as well since they are hurting for women applicants and you have the minimum experience for some of these programs.
As for roadmap, you should try to narrow your schools pretty quickly so you can begin arranging visits if possible. We have a school selector tool on our website that is pretty nifty. Give yourself at least a couple of months of introspection and writing not to mention gathering all the transcripts and recommenders. I would say 5-6 schools would be a good number to try and hit when the applications are released, but that's too many to ask one recommender to do. Generally 3 schools is about all I would do with any one recommender. Hope this is useful. We'd love to help you if you need it.